4 Fillies to watch in the Royal Heroine Stakes
By: Robert Marks, Twitter/X: (@theyreinthegate)
Here is a look at the 9-horse field.
Here are the horses we will be focusing on:
Stay and Scam (5-2) for Trainer Doug O’Neill will likely go off as the favorite. This 4-year-old filly will be your likely pacesetter. A sprinter type, she has only gone two turns once, and this is a 2-turn race. In her last race, the two-turn Wilshire stakes, she finished 2nd, despite having a 2 ½ lead going down the stretch before being caught by the winner-Nadette. Prior to that one-mile race, she won 5 of 10 spring races. Mario Gutierrez is the Jockey. O’Neill is a master at improving his horses, and we believe this 4-year-old and Gutierrez will improve over the last race now that she has a one-mile race under her belt.
Justique (10-1) will be piloted by Hall of Famer Jockey Mike Smith. Trained by John Shirreffs, this 4-year-old Filly will be a very tempting pick if she remains anywhere near her 10-1 morning line odds. She is battle-tested with seven graded stakes races out of her 12 starts. We love that foundation, and having Mike Smith on top to pilot her is always a plus. out of 3 starts, winning all three at Gulfstream Park, including the Holy Bull Stakes. She has impressive speed figures, topping out over 100 twice as Santa Anita in the Lady of Shamrock Stakes and Autumn Miss Stakes. She is coming off a nice workout. We think her last race, a poor performance in the Buena Vista Stakes, is a throw out and will trust Smith to be finishing late with Justique.
Uncorked (3-1) is the Wildcard here. This 5-year-old mare has not raced since November of last year at Aqueduct, finishing 3rd in the Forever Young Stakes. Phil D’Amato took over as Trainer since that race and has had to have the Mare resting in his barn for the last five months as this Australian Bred horse was sick. Now she’s rested, and D’Amato seems confident. She also gets Frankie Dettori on board for the 1st time. Always hard to figure out how a horse will perform coming off a long layoff, but she has had seven timed workouts in the last two months, all with good results. We will watch the tote board and hope her odds float a bit upward.
Looking at others you
might want to look at Miss Lizzy (6-1), the other Doug O’Neill Trainee
in this field. She was 2nd last time out in the Mizdirection Stakes at Santa
Anita Stakes. She will be stretching out to a mile and is sired by Classic
Empire, father of many dirt and sprint winners. Worth putting into your Trifecta
and Superfecta box selections.
Analysis & Handigambling
If you believe that Stay and Scam can figure out how to pace herself a bit better, she is your winner. If not, the horse is a toss. For us, we will believe in Stay and Scan and think Her Jock, Guitierrez puts her in position for a win We will go with a straight win bet and hope we hit the Tri with Justique at 10-1 or higher in the mix.
Bets: $100 dollar Budget
$50-win Stay and Scam
$2Trifecta Box: Stay and Scam, Justique, Uncorked (total bet $48)
$2 place: Justique
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