Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Cigar Mile (G2)

 Four to watch in the Grade 2 Cigar Mile

By: Robert Marks (@theyreinthegate)

With the Breeders’ Cup behind us we turn to the colder location of Queens NY at Aqueduct Racetrack for the historic Cigar Mile. It is no longer a Grade 1 race, now being run as a Grade 2 with a $500,000 pot.

However, we do have a nice big field for this year’s running. This race is named after Hall of Famer Cigar, who won 16 consecutive races.  

  

 

The Cigar Mile will go off as Race 10 on 12/2/23 at 4:12 pm Eastern time. 

Here is a look at the 12-horse field.

 

The first thing that pops out to me is the nice big field which will produce plenty of betting opportunities.  These are races where you can hit with a higher-odds horse.  Here is who we will look at:

Senor Buscador (7-2) for Trainer Todd Fincher is interesting. He will be cutting back in distance, having run his last 7 races over 1 mile including the 1 ¼ Breeders’ Cup Classic where he finished 7th.  This 5-year-old has run at the mile distance 3 times coming in 1st twice.  He will be ridden by Junior Alvarado, who gets on board for the 1st time. Senor Buscador had a bullet workout at Belmont where he is currently stalled, back on 11/25/23.  Certainly has the speed to win this race and is your likely post-time favorite.

Hoist the Gold (8-1) will be piloted by 3-time Cigar Mile Winner Johnny Velazquez. Seems most comfortable as a sprinter as he has mostly run at 6 and 7 furlongs. He has run a mile twice, finishing out of the money both times. Johnny V seems very confident and apparently suggested to Trainer Dallas Stewart that they run in the Cigar Mile. Will most likely be the early speed. Johnny knows the course, the race, and the horse, a good ingredient for a placing and an overlay if his odds stay at 8-1.

Dr. Ardito at 8-1 is one of 3 horses entered in the Cigar trained by Chad Brown. The mile is Dr. Ardito’s preferred distance where he has 5 wins out of 8 starts. He will have Manny Franco on board, also no stranger to Aqueduct. He will be the late pace in this race. You may want to watch the weather before betting, as it might rain. His late-running style is more suitable to a dry track. He is also NY-based and has ridden at Aqueduct 7 times with 5 winds.  favorite with Flavien Prat on board and Chad Brown the trainer. When at his best, this is probably the fastest horse in the field. He is always in the money but does have what I call “seconditis” a term I use for horses who are always in the money but just don’t seem to like winning. This horse is just short of 2 million in earnings but yet has only 2 lifetime wins.  Pencil this horse in for yet another 2nd place finish.

Looking at longshots, you might want to consider High Oak at 20-1, trained by Bill Mott. He was a late nomination to this race. Bill Mott is a master at placing horses where they belong, and the late nomination suggests he saw something in High Oak to run him in this race. On the Derby Trail in 2022 until an awful fall in the Fountain of Youth, he has run well lately, coming off a 2nd place finish in the Bold Ruler over the Aqueduct track. Would not be shocked if he gets a piece.

With a big field, we always like to bet the Trifecta, hoping to get a longshot in the mix with the likely favorite Senor Buscador. It’s these types of races where a Trifecta payoff can be highly profitable.

Bets: $100 dollar Budget

$50-win Senor Buscador

$2Trifecta Box: Senor Buscador, Hoist the Gold, Dr. Ardito, High Oak (total bet $48)

$2 place: High Oak