Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Mr. Prospector Stakes (G3)

 A Few good prospects in the Mr. Prospector

By: Michael Amo, Thorofan Handicapper

The 1970 foal crop was one for the record books. 24,361 foals were registered that year. That group produced a Who’s Who in Thoroughbred racing.

In that group were Stop the Music, Sham, Forego, Secretariat, and Mr. Prospector, for whom this week’s Handicap Corner race is named. He raced 14 times, finishing in the money 13 times.

In 1974, Daily Racing Form Free Handicap crowned him as the top sprinter. He was a superstar in a decade of many stars. He continued his prowess in the breeding shed, being named Leading Sire in 1987-1988.

The field for this year’s Mr. Prospector Stakes is talented but not with the credentials of the great Mr. Prospector.

Here is the field.

 

1.   Great Navigator (Sea Wizard) is the Morning Line favorite, finishing 2nd in the Vosburgh (G2) over the Aqueduct dirt course. Picks up a new jockey. Should sit a stalking trip with fast early fractions with a number vying for the lead out of the Gulfstream shoot. Needs to get in the mix early to win.

2.   Howbeit (Secret Circle) has done most of his racing on the west coast. Changed trainers to run at Churchill Downs. Based at Tampa Bay. Is a closer that needs the field to back-up for him to be in the money. Not likely.

3.   Scaramouche (Munnings)  won a grade two sprint at PARX in 2022. Has yet to show that form since. Hall of Fame jockey Johnny Velazquez takes the mount as he did in winning the PARX race. Not likely to repeat that effort here.

4.   Winfromwithin  (Into Mischief) seems to like the lead right out of the gate. Has had some success at this level. He gets a new jockey, Saez, who is comfortable with a front-running style. Tries dirt sprint after running mostly on the turf at longer distances. Needs to get in front and improve his position to win this one. Not likely.

5.   Hurricane J (Nyquist) tried Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in 2022, finishing 7^th behind Forte. Picked up a new trainer this fall who showed him the Winner’s Circle at Gulfstream Park. Gets weight from the other eight. He gets a new jockey, Irad Ortiz, which highlights the connections’ desire to win. Advantage. May duel for early lead. Not sure. Maybe.

6.   Dreaming of Kona (Fast Anna)  has had some luck at Gulfstream. Tried graded stakes races four times finishing out-of-the-money in all four. Not fast enough to compete with these and win. May be in the bottom of exotic tickets.

7.   Gilmore (Twirling Candy) seems competitive at this level. Working bullets for this race. Just missed in the Bayshore with jockey Jose Ortiz up who replaces his brother and Johnny Velazquez for this race. Should be sitting right off the pace for kick in the stretch. Big chance to win.

8.   Long Range Toddy (Take Charge Indy) is 2-for-2 over the Gulfstream dirt--- 7 and 8 furlongs. Jockey, Jaramillo, knows Gulfstream course and should continue to perform well on it. The numbers point in his direction. Could win.

9.   Sibelius (Not This Time) won this race last year and is back to repeat. His speed and form figures have regressed since last spring. Working nicely at Palm Meadows and retains Alvarado who got him in the Winner’s Circle when he was at the top of his game. Not sure if he is ready for this race.

 

Analysis

The race can unfold in a few ways. If the track favors speed, the race may be over when the gate opens. If it plays to closers and the pace breaks down, they will be rocketing down the stretch. The former should be the case.

The question is which of the pace setters will prevail. Here is how I think the race will finish.

8. Long Range Toddy (8-1) 

7. Gilmore (4-1)

1. Great Navigator (3-1)

6. Dreaming of Kona (15-1)

Handigamble: $100

$20 Win and Place –Long Range Toddy (#8) ---$40

$5 Exacta Box --------#8, #7, #1---------------------$30

$1 Trifecta Box-------#8, #7, #1, #6-----------------$24

$2 Exacta Rev Wheel:  #8, #7, #1  with #6--------$ 6