Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Los Alamitos Futurity

 Moonlit Sonata could make music in Los Alamitos Futurity

By: Rowan Ward, Blinkers-Off

West Coast juveniles take the spotlight in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). The 1 1/16-mile race offers a purse of $200,000 as well as 10-5-3-2-1 Road to the Kentucky Derby points to its top five qualifying finishers. However, in the field of six, only three horses are eligible for points: trainer Bob Baffert remains ineligible for the Run for the Roses, meaning his trio can earn purse money but not Derby points.

This race is the successor to the Hollywood Futurity, which was moved to Los Alamitos after Hollywood Park closed. Though only one horse has won both this race and the Kentucky Derby, 1997 winner Real Quiet, six starters in this race have gone on to win the Run for the Roses. However, that hasn’t happened since 2005 when Giacomo, who had finished second at Hollywood the year before, blew up the Kentucky Derby tote.

However, that does not mean recent winners of this race haven’t shined in other major races. Shared Belief (2013) emerged as one of the best horses in his class at ages two, three, and four. Into Mischief (2007), Pioneerof the Nile (2008), and Violence (2012) have gone on to be important stallions. And 2022 winner, Practical Move went on to win the Santa Anita Derby (G1) this year.

Let’s take a look at the field.

 

 

 

Trainer Tim Yakteen won the Los Alamitos Futurity in 2022 with Practical Move, a horse who had four races underneath him before making the grade in this race. His entrant this year, Moonlit Sonata, brings in a completely different profile: he was ignored at 33-1 in a maiden special weight at Del Mar on November 25, he tracked a modest pace for the distance and kicked away to win by 2 ½ lengths. That came at 6 ½ furlongs, meaning he stretches to a route for the first time in the Los Alamitos Futurity. However, he is bred top and bottom for this step up in trip. And he should be able to be tactical enough to make a run on a host of speedsters like Wynstock, Wine Me Up, and Stronghold. He has the upside to step up at a price.

Another who should be coming late is Coach Prime. He is not quite as appealing as Moonlit Sonata both because Coach Prime likely goes favored and because Moonlit Sonata stands to be a little better positioned. However, Coach Prime can benefit from the pace set by stablemates Wynstock and Wine Me Up as well as the Phil D’Amato-trained Stronghold. It also plays in Coach Prime’s favor that not only is he bred for a two-turn trip, but both his races have come over two-turn trips, and he woke up at a mile on dirt.

Especially with short fields, it can also help to identify the best of the speed. After all, if the track is playing in favor of frontrunners on race day, being the best of the speed is often a ticket to the winner’s share of the purse.

In this case, that honor goes to Wine Me Up. The son of Vino Rosso battled up front and kept on to break his maiden on debut and finished second to Muth in the American Pharoah. Muth came back to run second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) next out; Wine Me Up finished a well-beaten eighth in that same race. This is a less difficult field. And, though Wine Me Up has yet to prove himself at two turns, he is certainly bred for two turns and for improving with time and experience, meaning he has upside. He also can get a good, clean trip outside of the other speed, and he proved on debut that he doesn’t have to have a soft and lonely lead to run a winning race.

Selections:

#1 Moonlit Sonata (5-1)

#5 Coach Prime (2-1)

#6 Wine Me Up (5-2)