Baffert Fillies ready for their close up
By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power
The last filly to complete the Starlet/Oaks double was Able Tasman (2016) who would earn the 2017 3-year-old Champion Filly award. Take Charge Brandi (2014) captured the Starlet on her way to being crowned Champion 2-Year-Old Filly.
This year, Bob Baffert is in an excellent position to earn his seventh straight victory in the Starlet since his charges account for one-third of the six-horse field.
Nothing Like You (8-5) is the most experienced filly in the Starlet after her determined victory in the listed Desi Arnez Stakes. Her Brisnet speed ratings are rising and she has the race’s highest late-pace figure of 100. Malibu Moon’s daughter is a half to the stakes-winning miler South of France, and their dam is the multiple stakes winner Miss Derek. Nothing Like You is a rangy, long-striding filly. Her morning works are moderate and quicker than her stablemate, Grazia.
Chatalas (2-1) has a distinct win/lose cycle. She captured the Chandelier (G2) in her second to last start by 1 ½ lengths but was body slammed at the start of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and finished a non-threatening ninth. Gun Runner’s daughter, out of a winning Indian Charlie mare, is the most accomplished runner in three generations of her female family. If the win/lose cycle continues, Chatalas could play the spoiler. Her Chandelier speed rating of 92 is the highest in the Starlet field, and her 90 late-pace figure is second only to Nothing Like You.
Grazia (5-2) is considered the weaker half of the Baffert entries with only one start under her girth. She graduated at first asking over four rivals. Two placed next out. Baffert’s charge earned an average 85 speed rating and an 81 late pace figure. Uncle Mo’s daughter is half to Grade 3 placed turf sprinter Union Gables. Their dam is a multiple graded placed sprinter. The distaff line is comprised of blacktype earing sprinter/milers. Last year, Baffert’s Faiza won the Starlet in her second start, so don’t count Grazia out.
Flynn's Chance (8-1) improved in her second start to place second to Great Forty Eight. Flynn’s Chance got a little leg weary in the final strides and finished third, bested 1 ¾ lengths. By Medaglia d'Oro, Flynn’s Chance is a full sister to Las Virgenes (G3) heroine Moonlight d’Oro and a half to Grade 2-placed juvenile Olive Branch. Their dam is a full sister to Grade 2 winner Wilburn, and 2017 Champion Filly and Starlet winner Able Tasman is a distant relative. Richard Mandella generally places his charges where they have a chance to pick up a check. Flynn’s Chance should progress in her second start off the layoff.
Great Forty Eight (8-1) improved in every start until she found the winner’s circle in her fourth outing. She saw the tail-end of Nothing Like You in two previous starts, including a 6 ½ length dusting in Great Forty Eight’s second-to-last start. Constitution’s daughter is out of an Exchange Rate mare. Her dam is half to Grade 2 winner Ruby’s Reception, and distant relatives include Grade 1 heroine Union Strike and the hardy graded stakes winner Handsome Mike. Great Forty Eight’s post-race works are faster than before her maiden win, always a good sign.
Pacific Rose (15-1) is searching for a herd of fillies to conquer. The maiden’s best effort was in the 1 1/16 mile Chandelier (G2), where she tailgated the early pace while being hard-held. She made a mild bid in the stretch and made up a little ground but finished 3 ½ lengths behind the winner, Chatalas. Not This Time’s daughter is out of a Bernardini mare. Her second and third dams own blacktype. 2019 Champion Sprinter Mitole and the always-game stakes veteran Hot Rod Charlie are distant relatives. Pacific Rose may improve with distance and appears one-paced.
Analysis
Bob Baffert got his picture taken in the Starlet winner’s circle seven of the last twelve years, including the last six editions.
Eight of twelve Starlet heroines captured their previous race, while the rest placed second or third. Only four didn’t compete in a stakes. When the track switched back to dirt seven years ago, pacesetters/pressers won most of the races, and only two favorites didn’t finish in the top two spots.
The Desi Arnez stakes is a key prep; half of the last eight winners used it as a springboard to Starlet victory.
Baffert has an excellent shot to add a seventh straight Starlet victory to his resume with Nothing Like You. She won the Desi Arnez, is the most experienced in the field, and owns the highest late-pace figure.
If Nothing Like You stubs a hoof, Chaltas could visit the winner’s circle.
Grazia is a logical pick to complete the trio, but I’ll take a shot with Flynn’s Chance. She’s well-bred and should improve in her second start off the layoff.
Most of these fillies are pacesetters or pressers, except for Pacific Rose. She has a longshot chance to hit the board if they go fast early.
1. Nothing Like You (8-5)
5. Chatalas (2-1)
3. Flynn’s Chance (8-1)
No comments:
Post a Comment