Looking for an edge in the Clark Stakes
By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman
Greetings folks! Our ThoroFan race of the week is the $600,000 Clark Stakes. The traditional day after Thanksgiving feature is a Grade 2 event for three-year-olds and up going nine furlongs on the dirt under the legendary Twin Spires of Churchill Downs with a post time scheduled for 5:48 pm.
The Clark is among the oldest races in the United States, having first been run in 1875, the year Churchill Downs opened and is named in honor of Colonel M. Lewis Clark, founder of the Louisville Jockey Club which built the racetrack. Since its inception, the Clark has been run at various distances, but its current 1 1/8-miles has remained constant since 1955.
A field of 10 will enter the starting gate with four of the
runners being graded stakes winners, but none having won above the G3 level. A
few of the horses have competed in G1 and G2 company and have performed well.
Do those races against better possibly give them the edge? Let’s have a look at
the lineup from the rail out.
PP – Horse – Jockey/Trainer – ML
1 - Straight Arrow – Florent Geroux/Michael Dini – 8/1 -Ships in off a two-race winning streak, albeit against New York state-bred runners. Both of those victories came in the mud, so he certainly would appreciate an off-track. He should get a nice ground saving journey having drawn the rail. The switch to Geroux is a big plus, but overall, it probably won’t be enough as this is a big step up.
2 - First Mission – Luis Saez/Brad Cox - 3/1 - The only blemish (if you want to call it that) on this lightly-raced sophomore son of Street Sense’s record was his second-place finish in his maiden debut. Since then, he has reeled off three straight including the G3 Lexington two back with a speed figure good enough to win this. He is owned by Godolphin Stables who won this race the last two years with Maxfield (2021) and Proxy (2022). Has worked well in preparation for this.
3 - Il Miracolo – Tyler Gafflione/Antonio Sano – 4/1 - Another three-year-old trying older horses. He was based in Florida during the winter for the Kentucky Derby trail, but that didn’t work out well as he couldn’t compete against the likes of Forte and Mage. He’s been well traveled the second half of 2023 and three back at Parx he scored a big win in the G3 Smarty Jones Stakes, then was beaten a head in G2 Fayette last time out.
4 - Gasoline – Flavien Prat/Todd Pletcher – 5/1 - A winner of three of his last four, including his last two over this surface, so maybe he’s found a home here. This will be his first try in graded stakes after successfully going through his allowance conditions. His last was a huge win with a pretty good speed figure that puts him right there. He’s moving up in class, but makes his third start off a layoff, a category trainer Pletcher excels with.
5 - Trademark – Fernando De La Cruz/Victoria Oliver – 6/1 - This four-year old has made the most starts in the field and two back he was beaten a head in the G2 Lukas Classic after getting to the lead in the Churchill Downs stretch., earning a speed figure that could get his picture taken if he can repeat it. However, his form went south last time out with his seventh-place finish in the Fayette, so he will need to find a way to rebound big time to compete here.
6 – Film Star – Jose Lezcano/Linda Rice – 5/1 - Has a pretty good record at this distance with a pair of wins and second-place finishes. He was runner-up in the G2 Woodward Stakes behind Zandon and last start he was beaten less than two lengths in the G2 Forty Niner Stakes. Ships in for the always dangerous Linda Rice, so the horse must be respected from that angle as Rice has a high win rate (23%) with shippers.
7 - Giant Game – Martin Garcia/Dale Romans – 12/1 - Another G3 winner, but that win in the Cornhusker in July was the last time he got his picture taken, He did earn the highest speed figure in the field from that win, but that came when he was loose on an uncontested lead, something that probably he won’t get here with other speed present. He failed to beat a weaker field last race, so this is a tough task to secure a win against this group.
8 - Happy American – Declan Cannon/Neil Pessin – 20/1 - This guy has competed in nothing but graded stakes his last eight races and to his credit he managed a third place showing in the G1 Stephen Foster back in July. He was given a break following that race, but his two starts following the rest have been sub-par. He will need major improvement to beat this field.
9 - Strange Raider – Brian Hernandez/Cherie Devaux – 12/1 - Enters off a sixth-place finish against Cody’s Wish in the G1 BC Dirt Mile. He ran very well in the G3 Ack Ack back in September where he finished second, beaten a length here at Churchill. Overall, his speed figures pale in comparison when matched against others and that alone makes me think he’s not capable of breaking through to win this.
10 - Blue Devil – Javier Castellano/Jeff Hiles – 10/1 - Has been in excellent form since the beginning of June, having not missed a top three finish in five outings, including representing himself very well in the Lukas Classic where he finished third, beaten just a length. He’s been off for nearly two months but has performed well in the past returning from a layoff, so he’s capable in this spot. Trainer Hiles is winless at this meet and has never won a graded stake, but the switch to Castellano is a positive and may be what the horse needs to get it done.
The makeup of this field indicates there is plenty of early foot which could accelerate the pace up front, favoring runners from behind. With that said, I’ve settled on a pair of horses that will be tracking behind the leaders and one of them should prevail.
First Mission defeated older allowance runners last race, showing patience and perseverance when getting blocked in the upper stretch and he beat a quality field two back in the Lexington Stakes. He’s lightly raced and has banked three wins in a row. The talent is there, and he has the most upside.
Il Miracolo was only beaten a head in his first try against his elders last out in the Fayette. His speed figure from that effort and the figure from his third-place finish at Parx in the G1 Pa Derby are solid. He’s in very good form right now and wouldn’t take much improvement from his last two races to come out on top.
Between the two choices, Il Miracolo gets the call. The Antonio Sano runner will be more attractive odds opposed to First Mission, who will likely be the betting choice. Maybe too low for my liking. However, I will put both horses together in an exacta.
Win and Place on Il Miracolo
Exacta Box: Il Miracolo/First Mission
For the tri’s and/or supers, readers can add in whoever they feel comfortable with.
For the record, I will be using Blue Devil to fill out my trifecta.
Good luck and as always, enjoy the race!!
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