Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Red Smith Handicap (G2)

  Three contenders stand out in the        Red Smith Handicap

By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper

The $300,000 Grade 2 Red Smith Handicap drew twelve entries, along with four AE's  is a lot to digest. Especially when almost all have some close figures, given the surface and distance. Of the scheduled runners, three stick out and are likely winners of this challenging 1 3/8 mile trek on the turf.

 

I'll talk about my top three and then expand for exotic plays.

8. Soldier Rising – Clement/Ortiz, JL – This one has been on a streak of second-place finishes in Grade I races since May, with the exception of the Grade II Bowling Green two back at Saratoga. Got badly bumped coming to the stretch turn and was done from there. The other Grade I races, when you lose to horses like Red Knight, Up to the Mark, Bolshoi Ballet, and War Like Goddess, maybe you're strong enough to win here. He's been ITM 16 of his 20 races with $1.2 in the bank. Win contender and must use for any exotics.

6. Nineeleventurbo – Drysdale/Rosario – His pace tracking running style for this race may be ideal as we have a couple of horses (#1 Lost Ark & #3 Main Event) who love the lead. It's true that he has not been in the big ranks, but then, he doesn't know that. He does know that he finished second to Golden Phoenix in the Del Mar Handicap going this distance. I think Drysdale is on the right track and certainly picked well for his jockey. The 'old school' 6 furlong work is also something I like to see going this distance. Win contender? Possibly, but it's an Exacta play for sure.

7. Marwad – Moubarak/Castellano  - He's been back on the work tab since September after a five-month break. Lightly raced, and his last out after the break was not terrible. He should improve, and he has Castellano up for the mount, and they won at Gulfstream, going the distance and closing pace of 112. Win contender? Might surprise at a price. Must play in any exotics.

Others have potential to be ITM and should be played in exotics.

2. So High – came in one length back of Soldier Rising in the Turf Classic at BAQ. Lead most of the way going 1 and 1/2.

3. Main Event  - Front runner who's never gone this far. Won last out in front running style and his first win for the year.

4. Cross Boarder – Won last out going 1 and 1/2 winning a black type by 2 and 1/2. Older horse who has made his mark with $1.3 to show for his efforts.

5. Limited Liability  - Third by one in the Sycamore at Keeneland last out. Likes to run mid-pack and seems to have trouble closing the deal.

10. Verstappen  - If he comes back to his form July when he lost to Channel Maker in the Sycamore, he may be a threat to get second.

AE horses

13. Classic Catch appears to be the only one who has speed to keep up with the main entries and will have to work out a trip.

Playing the Red Smith

Several of these have seen each other in action. It should be quite a race, and I believe that a horse who can track the leaders and make the distance will be the winner.

I'm going to take the new shooter 6 long across the board, $20 WPS.

A $1 Exacta 6 with All and a $1 Trifecta 8,7,4,10 with 6 with 8,7,4,10.

Good Luck.