Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Hill Prince Stakes (G2)

Longshot could pay royal price in Hill Prince Stakes

By: Stuart Marc deVoe, ThoroFan Handicapper

It’s been tough sledding for turf runners in NY this year.  One would think with all the rain in Saratoga this summer followed by similar precipitation once racing moved back to the Metro area that Mother Nature only likes dirt racing.   

Well, NYRA will take another shot to run some quality races on the green and may get the chance on Saturday with the G2 Hill Prince for straight 3yo going 1 1/8^th miles.  The forecast looks to be mostly dry.  Perhaps Mother Nature is focused elsewhere and we can get down to the business at hand. 

Chad sends out three entries.  Shug has got one in that looks like he could be any kind.  There are a few others that look like they are starting to put things together.  Overall, it is an interesting puzzle.  Here is the field:

 

 

1.    Freedom Trail (J. Ortiz/J. Terranova) 8-1 – A two-time winner on this course to start his career, ran the best race of his life in his last against older allowance foes.  Earlier this year he dabbled at the graded level finishing mid pack.  He has some late foot but will need to really step up his game to contend.

2.   Laurel Valley (D. Davis/M. Maker) 30-1 –  Has a NY bred maiden win to his credit.  Looks out classed here

3.   Integration (K. Carmouche/C. McGaughey) Even -  Shug rarely sends out maiden winners back in graded stakes but that is exactly what he did with this son of Quality Road.  He was rewarded with a Virginia Derby triumph in impressive fashion.  Integration ran down a G1 winner in Program Trading in that event and looked to do it rather easily.  This race goes through him.  He has a speed figure edge and Shug generally improves his horses with each start.

4.   Equitize (GB) (I. Ortiz Jr./C. Brown) 5-1 –  The 1^st of Chad Brown’s entrants.  He has only one start – a Tampa maiden win back in March.  He hinted at talent in that event although was green.  One might think he is entered as a filler but Mr. Brown is a master at placing his horses.  Make no mistake, he belongs if Chad thinks he belongs.   

5.   Faraday (JJ. Castellano/C. Brown) 10-1 – The 2^nd Brown entrant owns a Saratoga maiden win and a Kentucky Downs allowance victory both at longer distances.  He benefited in both his wins closing into a strong pace, according to TimeformUS.  I’m not sure he will get that here.

6.   Toofareastiswest (J. Rosario/M. Trombetta) 20-1 – Toofareastiswest has 5 in the money finishes in 6 tries.  He also finished behind today’s rival in Faraday back in July but since he has 2 victories with one at Laurel.  However, he is interesting to me.  One of his losses was to Runaway Storm who won the G3 Bryan Station at Keenland last month, so he has some quality.  His loss to Faraday was when he was hopelessly wide the entire trip.  He put it together in his last 2 and is improving at a price.

7.   Quality Chic (I. Castillo/D. Jacobson) 15-1 – He has 1 turf start to his name – a CD maiden race when he was in Kenny McPeek’s barn.  His maiden win was in an off the turfer at AQU.  I wonder if his current trainer is hoping Mother Nature moves this to the main track.

8.   I’m Very Busy (M. Franco/C. Brown) 6-1 – The last of Chad’s entries hinted at ability last year being sent off at 6to1 in the Breeder’s Cup Juvi Turf.  He ran 10^th of 14 beaten less than 4 lengths.  He looks to be rounding back to form after an authoritative win in his last attending a sharp pace and separating from his foes.  Again, Chad doesn’t enter them without a chance. 

9.   Classic Catch (J. Alvarado/T. Pletcher) 8-1 – Been trying to get on the green but has been rained off in his last 2.  He’s run some fast figures on dirt and if that transfers to the turf, he may be dangerous.  That said, he did regress off his race 2 back.  I don’t like backing horses that aren’t moving forward.

10.MTO Crupi (K. Carmouche/T. Pletcher) 9/5 - If it is moved to the main, he is a winner.

 

ANALYSIS

If you are a speed figure person, Integration has the edge.  Add the fact that he ran down a G1 winner in Program Trading who had a better trip and the jump on him, he passes the eye test as well. 

Of the Chads, I suppose none of the three would surprise me as each can win.  Equitize (GB) is the most interesting because he has proven the least but is still entered.  I guess I’d take I’m Very Busy over Faraday because of the back class and maybe he didn’t enjoy the Spa. 

Of the others, Toofareastiswest is very intriguing.  I think he will be overlooked but has just as much upside as the others and he is 20-1 on the morning line.  Visually, he has a ton of upside.  His speed figures are a bit lighter than I’d like but he is developing and that’s how you get the long odds.

I think the exacta of Integration with any of the Chads will be over bet but certainly with Equitize (GB). 

 

THE BET: Based on $100 budget.

$30 win 6

$15 exacta box 3,6

$10 exacta box 4,6

$20 exacta 3 with 6

Good Luck!