Handicapper's Corner: 2021 Fountain of Youth (G2)

 Fountain of Youth Picks N'Plays

By: John Caro, S. FL ThoroFan

Welcome back to Gulfstream Park for the Fountain of Youth. The weather is ideal and forecast to be partly cloudy, high of 81, with winds ESE at 10 to 20 mph; unlike the remainder of the country. It is a serious disappointment not to be able to see this live for many of us as this is the second leg of our racing highlights in Florida land for the Derby quest.

 

I went back and looked at the last six races just to check. In only two of the last six did the favorite win. Upstart (4-5) in 2015 crossed the line first and was DQ’d and placed second to Itsaknockout (5.4-1), with the late closing Frammento (63-1) getting third. And Frosted (4-1), you guys remember Frosted? Held on for fourth.

The other fav to win was Mohaymen (2-5) took the honors over Zulu (4-1) and Fellowship (22-1).

Last year’s winner, Ete Indien (3-1) went gate to wire, winning by 8.5 lengths with a blanket of four behind him with Candy Tycoon(22-1) and As Seen on TV (2.8-1 second fav).

The other years 2017-2019, saw better odds with late closing Gunnevera (4-1) followed by Promised Fulfilled (18-1) going wire to wire and the future Travers winner Code of Honor (9-1) taking the 2019 version from mid-pack.

To me, that adds up to short odds, may well lose to a well-timed ride, or the front runner who can stay there and improve his position. I wouldn’t leave the favorites off my tickets, but I would play the best longshots with them as the history says it’s so.

 Short odds  

#8-Greatest Honour (9-5) mid to late-closing when winning the Holy Bull here. Great turn of foot to win by 5+ lengths. Gotta use him.

#4-Fire at Will (7-2) has been taking a rest since his two-year-old campaign on the turf. Good works and a trainer who brings back horses off a rest. Gotta use him, too.

#1-Drain the Clock (5-1) has been sprinting on or near the lead very well, winning 4 of 5 and lost only after his iron broke. He’s by Maclean’s Music, so distance should not be an issue. Like him a lot because I think we get a price for him.

His neighbor, #2-Prime Factor (5-1) was soundly beaten as the odds-on favorite in the Holy Bull after seven furlongs of tracking. Not a top pick for me.

#7-Tarantino (8-1) (man, I love the name), brought to us by Pioneer of the Nile, excelled at 27-1 to finish behind Greatest Honour in the Bull. Quite good for a first on dirt. I expect better things from this guy with Gaffalione up and is my Key horse.

 

Longer shots

#3-Sososubtle (20-1), #5-Jirafales (20-1), #6-King's Ovation (15-1), #9-Tiz Tact Toe (30-1), and #10-Papetu (15-1).

I can only see two of these fellas going forward into the mix. Sososubtle and Papetu. Sososubtle has a jockey who could adjust to the speed, has had a great work just prior to the race, and his speed improvement from his first race with a change in surface says he might be a spoiler. Papetu is ridden by Mohaymen’s winning jockey, and although it looks bad with a 10 length loss to Greatest Honour but his rail trip was foiled until after the final turn when he was driving home. Maybe a better position to move into the clear.

 

Handigambling

Gotta use the favorite on top and in the middle.

$3 Trifecta – 8 with 7, 1, 4, 3, 10 with 7, 1, 4, 3, 10 -   $60

$1.50 Trifecta – 7 with 8, 1, 4, 3, 10 with 8, 1, 4, 3, 10 -   $20

$2 Exacta Box – 8, 7, 3 -   $12

$8 Exacta – 8 with 7

Good luck to everyone, and stay safe out there.

Handicapper's Corner: 2021 Buena Vista Stakes (G2)

 Buena Vista Stakes Picks N' Plays

By: Stuart deVoe, ThoroFan Member

Initially run in 1988, The Buena Vista for fillies and mares 4yo & up will be contested over a grassy mile for the 32^nd time on Saturday.  Ten entrants are scheduled to go to the gate under clear skies and a presumed firm course in race 7 at “The Great Race Place” - Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, California. 

 

 

At first glance, this looks like a wide-open affair.  Upon closer inspection, The Buena Vista will indeed be a great race with many places to land.  There looks to be plenty of pace on with 2 entrants who disputed the pace in last month’s 6F Las Cienegas.  Charmaine’s Mia (#8) went on to win that by 2 ½ lengths while Bohemian Bourbon (#1) faded to fifth.  It should be noted that the 4^th place finisher in that one, Superstition, came back to win last week’s Wishing Well.  

Also projected “on the engine” is Nasty (#4), the Richard Baltas trainee who wired the Lady of Shamrock stakes back on opening day traveling today’s one-mile turf distance.  Sprinkle in longshot Heathers Grey (#10), who is also coming out of a turf sprint.

Those four will be pressed by the improving 4yo Going to Vegas and the multiple graded winner Mucho Unusual who both seem to show up at every dance.  If you like deep closers, look no further than another improving 4yo in Red Lark or the California-bred Warren’s Showtime.  No matter which way one lands, this event will have the most hardened of our brethren leaning, snapping, cheering, or whatever other “dance” is done in the final furlong when money and opinions are on the line.

A brief look at the field:

 

1.    Bohemian Bourbon - Jose Valdivia/Michael McCarthy 20-1; Second off the layoff, this 5yo mare will be making start #2 for her new trainer.  She has had a steady diet of turf sprints back east and looks best with a target to run at.  Given she is breaking from the rail and coming out of said sprints, I expect her to towards the lead to secure position.  Being by Midshipman out of a Bernardini mare, one would think a turf mile is within her grasp.  But Ian Wilkes, her former conditioner, tried that only once.  If she wins, you will get paid.

 

    2.   Mucho Unusual - Abel Cedillo/Tim Yakteen 7-2; This Cal-bred mare simply shows up every time and has done so in graded races.  She gets her 5^th new pilot in as many races as Joel Rosario is in the Middle East riding a magic carpet named Knicks Go in the Saudi Cup.  The only blemishes on Mucho’s record are 2 poor runs, both at Keeneland in Grade I’s.  If there was a knock on her, which is not really one, is how long can she keep up this consistency?  For her owner George Krikorian, that is a positive problem to have.  A serious contender.

 

    3.   Warren’s Showtime – Juan Hernandez/Craig Lewis 5-1; The “other” Cal-bred comes in with a record of only missing the board twice in a 16-race career.  This homebred runs on any surface or distance and flat out can run.  She has won 5 of 9 at a mile on turf and has never been off the board in 7 tries on Santa Anita’s green.  She will be running late. Contender.

 

    4.   Nasty – Ricky Gonzales/Richard Baltas 6-1; This lightly raced 4yo has shown flashes of the deadly combination of “lick & stick” in the past.  She can go a sub:46 half-mile and still be around at the finish.  The others better keep her in their sights.  If she shakes looks, watch out.  That said, she has shown the ability to sit just off another speed like she did in the Autumn Miss stakes.  It just so happens in that affair that she was tagged late by 2 foes in today’s race (Warren’s Showtime & Going to Vegas). Contender at a price.

 

    5.   Red Lark – Drayden Van Dyke/Paddy Gallagher 8-1; This deep closer looks to be coming into her own.  She exits 3 Grade I tries all at longer distances, where she won one of them.  If the pace is hot, this could set up perfectly for her.  In her first race off a short break, the G1 American Oaks, she closed very well into a slow pace.  She was only beaten 2 ¾ lengths by Chad Brown’s Duopoly, who lulled them to sleep on the front end.  Prior to that, she was a good closing 4^th, beat 1 ¾ lengths for it all in the Queen Elizabeth II at Keeneland.  She is not chasing those types in here.  Price Play and Pick.

 

    6.   Sedamar – Rueben Fuentes/Shelbie Ruis 8-1; Her 2020 campaign had her on a steady diet of state-bred races where she was always competitive.  In her 1^st start this year, she did come within ¾ of a length to Mucho Unusual in the G3 Megahertz.  That margin of victory was deceiving as the winner had plenty left.  Longshot.

 

    7.   Going to Vegas – Mario Gutierrez/Richard Baltas 6-1; This miss finished in front of Red Lark in the American Oaks last out.  She was much closer to that slow pace and kept on well.  She will appreciate getting away from Chad Brown’s army as that was the 2^nd in a row where he shipped out and won where Going to Vegas ran 2^nd.  This $50k claim last June has proven to be a shrewd move as she has run 2^nd her last 3 efforts, all graded races.  She consistently hits the board and does so at double-digit odds.  Board threat.

 

    8.   Charmaine’s Mia – Flavien Prat/Phil D’Amato 3-1;  This speedy gal, like the rail horse, is coming out of turf sprints and is making her 2^nd start off a layoff.  What looks to be a private purchase from her former owner/trainer, Michael McDonald, ‘ Mia has plenty of gas to be forwardly placed from her outside box.  Can she carry her speed 2 turns is the question.  If allowed to roll early, we will find out. Contender.

 

    9.   Sloane Garden (GB) – Tiago Pereira/Manuel Badilla 12-1; A 5yo mare who ships down from Golden Gate to make her first start of the year, will need to step up her game to compete.  The waters are much deeper in Southern California but hey, why not take a shot?  She has a good turn of foot and will be in front of the deep closers.  Perhaps the seas part for her, and she gets the jump. This handicapper won’t be betting on it.  Outsider.

 

    10.Heathers Grey – Jessica Pyfer/Sean McCarthy 20-1; With only three wins to her credit, she seems up against it.  She has yet to clear her “two other than” condition and seems ambitiously placed.  Her outside draw did her no favors either.  Outsider.

 

The Play 

I will be keying Red Lark to catch them all late.  There is plenty of pace here, which is something that she didn’t get in her last few.  She will be a square price, projects a good set up, and looks to breakthrough in this spot.  

I will be using her with Nasty, who seems to have the versatility to “play the break” and position herself in a cozy spot and make her presence felt both early and late.   

I can't leave Mucho Unusual or Warren’s Showtime off my tickets as they shows up every time.  

I plan to stand against Charmaine’s Mia at her odds and her post.  Perhaps she can parlay her Las Cienegas win sprinting to a Buena Vista score going two turns.  I’m not willing to back her at her morning line odds to find out. 

Win/Place - #5

Exacta key Box - #5/2,3,4

Exacta straight #5/2,3,4

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2021 Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G3)

Travel Column, Clairiere hook up in Rachel Alexandra Stakes 

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power 

The competition for 2021 Kentucky Oaks qualifying points heats up with the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G3). The contest ups the stakes to 50 points to the winner, with a 20-10-5 tier to second through fourth place.

The Rachel Alexandra Stakes, named for the 2009 Champion 3-year-old Filly and Horse of the Year, is the second of three Kentucky Oaks prep races held at the Fair Grounds. The listed Silverbulletday Stakes and the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) are the others. Three fillies have completed the Rachel Alexandra Stakes/Kentucky Oaks double in the last decade, and two Rachel Alexandra winners finished third in the Oaks.

The 1 1/16-mile contest initially attracted nine 3-year-old fillies; however, Silverbulletday Stakes, heroine Charlie’s Penny was scratched due to a small bone fracture. She is expected to return to training after a three-month layoff.

The Rachel Alexandra Stakes is led by the Golden Rod (G2) winner and runner-up, Travel Column and Clairiere. The Silverbulletday Stakes, runner up Souper Sensational, and third-place finisher Moon Swag will stretch to two turns for the first time.

 

Let’s take a closer look at the fillies.

TRAVEL COLUMN (Frosted - Swingit, by Victory Gallop) is the only graded stakes winner in the field. The pretty gray filly won the Golden Rod Stakes despite a slow start and being bottled up in the stretch. Once she got clear, she ran down  Clairiere to win by a length. The Brad Cox trainee is making her 3-year-old debut in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes. Two of the last three winners, including Cox’s Monomoy Girl (2018), won this race off a layoff.

Travel Column is bred to handle nine furlongs and farther. Her half-brother Neolithic is multiple Grade 1 stakes-placed at nine and ten furlongs. Their dam Swingit is a multiple stakes-winning turf miler.

CLAIRIERE (Curlin - Cavorting, by Bernardini) looked home free in the Golden Rod until the more experienced Travel Column passed her within a furlong of the wire. Her trainer, Steve Asmussen, conditioned last year’s Rachel Alexandra heroine Finite.

Clairiere, a daughter of Curlin, is the first foal out of the multiple Grade 1 winner, Cavorting. The mare earned $2,063,000 in 13 starts from six to nine furlongs.

 

SOUPER SENSATIONAL (Curlin - Kateri, by Indian Charlie)  put forth a reasonable effort in her switch from Polytrack to the Fair Ground’s dirt to finish second in the Silverbulletday Stakes after a wide trip. She appeared once-paced through the stretch but owns a 101 late-pace speed figure, the highest in the field. 

Souper Sensational’s dam is a half-sister to Grade 1-winning millionaire Tiz Miss Sue and 2018 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint hero Bulletin.

 

MOON SWAG (Malibu Moon - Yara, by Put It Back) finished third in the Silverbulletday, bested by four lengths, although she made up ground on Souper Sensational.

Moon Swag’s full brother Heavy Roller hit the board in a pair of stakes at Assiniboia. However, their dam is a Grade 2 winning miler, and this is the family of Healthy Addiction and her accomplished daughter My Sweet Addiction, both Grade 1 winners. Moon Swag should appreciate the extra distance here.

 

ZOOM UP (Upstart - Open Agenda, by More Than Ready) is ready to do just that after beating winners by a handy two lengths in an Allowance Optional Claimer in her last start. Her Brisnet speed figures are moderate, but it’s time for this Tom Amoss trainee to test the graded stakes waters.

The daughter of Razorback Handicap hero Upstart is a half-sister to multiple stakes placed turf sprinter What'sontheagenda.

 

OFF WE GO  (Air Force Blue - Conquest Strate Up, by Not Bourbon) is the second of a trio of Rachel Alexandra Stakes fillies conditioned by Tom Amoss. Off We Go closed in the slop in her last start to miss by 3/4-length. She passed the pacesetter after the wire. The extra distance should suit Off We Go, but her speed figures are on the low side.

By European Champion 2-year-old out of a stakes-winning turf sprinter, one would think Off We Go would have a promising future on turf. She may wind up there eventually. Off We Go’s second dam is a half-sister to Horse of the Year and prominent sire Curlin.

 

LITTLESTITIOUS (Ghostzapper - Broadway Play, by Quality Road) (6/1). The Tom Amoss trainee showed speed and fade in the Silverbulletday and faded to fifth. It was the first time she’s finished out of the money in her six-race career.  So did she regress after her huge ten-length victory in the My Trusty Cat Stakes at Delta Downs, or is she out of her league?

Littlestitious is bred to progress with maturity and should love the extra distance. Her dam is a half-sister to Broadway Empire, a multiple Grade-3 winner at 1 1/8-miles and 1 1/36-miles.

 

BECCA'S ROCKET (Orb - Idoitmyway, by Unbridled's Song) brings her game on every surface. She’s a winner over turf and mud and has finished second on dirt. The free-running filly tuned up for the Rachel Alexandra Stakes with a 3/4-length victory at a mile over Sam Houston’s turf course. She graduated at the Fair Grounds last year with a 4 1/4-length victory in the slop.  Becca's Rocket

Becca's Rocket is a half-sister to a trio of stakes earners, the winning sprinter Star Student, Grade 2-placed turf miler Another Time and stakes-placed turf miler Muchmorethanthis.

 

Becca's Rocket does her best work on the front end. She’ll try to take them gate to wire in her 2-turn debut. Definitely a speed/fade candidate. She may be joined on the front end by Zoom Up, with Littlestitious not far behind. Travel Column, Off We Go, and Souper Sensational have tactical speed. Joe Talamo takes over the reins on Clairiere, and she may show a little more zip from post 1.

 

#1 CLAIRIERE (5-2)

#8 TRAVEL COLUMN (2-1)

#2 SOUPER SENSATIONAL (8-1)

#3 MOON SWAG (#15-1)