Handicapper's Corner: Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational Stakes (G1)

Full Field Set for Inaugural Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational

By: Robert Marks, They're in the Gate (Twitter @theyreinthegate)

This is the first ever Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational at Gulfstream Park going 1 3/16 miles on the Turf with Gulfstream Park deciding to divide the $16 million pot of last years Pegasus on the dirt into 2 races, one on dirt for 9 million and one on Turf for 7 million.  It’s a little odd for a big Turf race in January as many of the European turf horses are taking a break getting ready for Spring racing. But there is a big amount of money up for grabs and we have a full field of 10 horses.

#4 Aerolithe- The big unknown here. This mare ships over from Japan. It is reported that she has shipped well to America. I think many will shy away from her leaving her morning line price of 5-1 very appealing. If this bib mare is anywhere near 3-1 or over, you should jump on it. Her connections have pointed to this race and her stalking style should be perfect for a stretch run finish in the top three.  

#2 Yoshida -How can you not like this horse who has one both on the dirt and the turf.  Last time out we saw him in the BC Classic on dirt. Connections of this horse must think he has a shot, or why wouldn’t they run him on the dirt again in the Pegasus World Cup on dirt for the 9 million. Watch his odds off the morning line of 5-2 which seems fair. The horse always tries and should be in all of your exotic bets.

#7 Bricks n Mortar-This 5-year-old horse has a win over this track at one mile back in December.  He is trained by Chad Brown with Irad Ortiz on board, a combo that is often sure money with good turf horses. This horse has been lightly run and seems to be improving and sitting on a big race. Tremendous valve at the morning line odds of 6-1. Watch the odds board, if he stays around 6-1 jump on those odds.

Longshot- #10 Dubby Dubbie—Love the name and who doesn’t love owner Ron Paolucci, who just bought this 4-year-old gelding to take a shot at the big purse. Gotta Love an owner who always takes shots and at 30-1 he can really juice up your exotics.

Wagering/Betting Handigambling Bankroll: Here is our $100 worth of betting for the race

$10 Exacta Box: #4, #2 = $20

$10 Trifecta #4,#2,#7 = $60

$20 Win: #4  = $20

Bonus Bet--Longshot $1 Trifecta Box #4,#2,#7,#10 = $24

As always, watch the Board and if at the track watch how the horses look in the Paddock and adjust your bets accordingly. Good Luck!

Handicapper's Corner: Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes (G1)

Is the Pegasus World Cup a Lock for Accelerate?

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

Frank Stronach had an idea.  Change the name of the Donn Handicap to the Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes, boost the purse to $12 million, and get the horsemen to pay for it. But the Pegasus isn’t just another big race for older horses. Gulfstream Park likes to put on a circus of sorts, fine dining, celebrity party tents, and entertainment, before during, and after the event, much like the Triple Crown races and Breeders’ Cup. 

In only two years, Stronach’s idea has paid off for the track. The Pegasus Stakes has become the most talked about event for older horses.  The contest is televised, and in the last three years, fans have seen heavyweights California Chrome, Arrogate, and Gun Runner. 

The Favorites

This year, the Pegasus drew another full field of twelve. The one receiving most of the attention is recently named 2018 Horse of the Year Accelerate, who breaks from the perfect position of post 5, and has a morning line of 9/5. Last year, the son of Lookin at Lucky won 6 of 7 starts. The only mar on perfection was a neck lost to City of Light in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2).  Accelerate topped off last year with a one-length victory in the Breeders’ Cup Classic over Gunnevera. Accelerate is following in the hoofprints of Arrogate and Gun Runner, both pulled off the Classic/Pegasus double. 

City of Light, the only horse to beat Accelerate last year, drew post 3 and with morning line odds of 5/2.  The free-running son of Quality Road was last seen capturing the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile by 2 3/4-lengths over Seeking the Soul and Bravazo. Normally competing as a sprinter/miler, City of Light stretched out successfully to 1 1/8 miles once in his career, to upset Accelerate. 

Back for More

Two old warriors are back for more. Gunnevera and Seeking the Soul both competed in last year’s Pegasus.  Gunnevera placed third, while Seeking the Soul, stuck in post 11, offered no response in the stretch and finished in fifth place. 

Gunnevera has won or placed in eight of nine starts over Gulfstream Park, his home track. In the last year, he’s finished off the board only once, and that was in the Dubai World Cup. There are two drawbacks for Gunnevera. One is that he draws post 8, and the other is that he is 0-3 at 1 1/8 miles. Post 8 isn’t as much of a concern for the colt’s closing running style, as it would be if he were a pace presser. I’m pretty confident that Irad Ortiz, Jr. can work out the right trip. 

Seeking the Soul is also a one-run stalker, and drew post 4. The six-year-old usually picks up a check; he’s been in the money 17 of 23-lifetime starts. He was last seen finishing third in the Clark Handicap. 

The Invader

Kukulkan is a perfect 14 for 14, including capturing the Mexico Triple Crown. Last December, Kukulkan proved that he could race outside of Mexico and dominated the 1 1/8 mile Caribbean Classic at Gulfstream by 10 1/4 lengths. The drawbacks are post 9 and the big step up in company, but Kukulkan isn’t just some creatively bred Mexican horse. By graded stakes winner Point Determined, he’s out of a daughter of Bernardini, and Kukulkan’s second dam is the grade 1 winning sprinter Mayo on the Side, whose claim to fame was beating 3-time Champ Azari in the Humana Distaff. 

The Youngsters

Three 4-year-olds will try to upset the older horses. Besides Kukulkan, Audible and Bravazo will try to get the job done from opposite ends of the field.

Audible was most recently seen floundering in the mud in the Harlan’s Holiday Stakes. He tried hard but was left with too much to do at the end, settling for second place, beaten only a 1/2 length by Sir Anthony, who had a much better trip. Audible has captured two of three starts at Gulfstream, including last year’s Florida Derby. The colt’s regular rider Castellano is sticking with City of Light, whom he rode to victory in the Breeders’ Cup Mile.  California jock, Flavien Pratt will guide Audible.   

Breaking from post 1, Bravazo gets to take the short way around the track. He was last seen finishing second by a desperate neck in the Clark Handicap. Last year, the colt hit the board in 7 of 11 starts. However, the last time he visited the winner's circle was in the Risen Star Stakes. Still, Bravazo tries hard, and he’s been breezing well.

Out in Right Field

Way out in post 12, Patternrecognition is one of four horses who may vie for the lead or press the pace. On the plus side, the Bay horse is out of the hot Chad Brown barn and will have Jose Ortiz aboard. The duo has teamed for a 38% win rate over the last three months.  On the downside, Patternrecognition will be widest off all around the first turn and have to expend energy to set or press the pace. Additionally, the sprinter/miler is stretching out to 1 1/8 miles for the first time. 

The Underdogs

Tom’s d’Etat is jumping up in class, but this is a horse who likes to win. The son of Smart Strike brings a four-race win streak to the Pegasus, including two victories at 1 1/8 miles. 

True Timber isn’t as accomplished stakes-wise as some of the heavy hitters but did gain ground to finish second in the Cigar Mile last time out. Despite a stamina-oriented pedigree, the son of Mineshaft is 0-2 at 1 1/8 miles and prefers competing as a sprinter/miler. 

The Old Guys

8-year old Something Awesome and 9-year-old Imperative make up the remainder of the field. 

Something Awesome earns a check more often than not and is 2 for 2 at 1 1/8 miles. This old guy can still run. He owns the second-highest late pace speed figure in the field.

In almost every field, there’s one horse who is way out of his league. It seems even the Pegasus Stakes isn’t immune to this factor. At 9 years old, Imperative’s best days are behind him. He’s earned close to 3-million dollars but hasn’t won a race since the 2017 Charlestown Classic. This poor old guy was beaten 20 lengths in his last start, a $62K Optional Claimer at Gulfstream Park. Mr. Paolucci, please do the right thing by this poor old warrior and let him retire with dignity.    

Selections

The one thing anyone knows for sure about racing at Gulfstream Park is that being stuck in an outside post is worse than Miami rush hour traffic in the winter. 

That being said, the two heavy hitters, Accelerate and City of Light have drawn great posts. So, do I go with the flow and pick Accelerate on top? He’s the class of the field and fits right in the likes of Arrogate and Gun Runner.  The two are closely matched, speed figure wise.   

Picking the favorite is boring, so I’m going with City of Light on top. He figures to be close to the pace and can get the jump on Accelerate like he did at Oaklawn Park. 

The only speedball in here is Patternrecognition, and he’ll have his hooves full getting to the lead from the far outside. Gunnevera and Bravazo always run their race, and usually, pick up a check. So does Audible, but I don’t think 1 1/8 miles is his best distance, and despite being a one-run closer, he’s stuck in an outside post and will be wide on the first turn. Kukulkan ran a huge race in the Caribbean Classic. He’s worth a look to hit the board.

 #3 City of Light (5-2)

#5 Accelerate (9-5)

#8 Gunnevera (8-1)

#1 Bravazo (12-1)

Handigambling:

A full field offers plenty of betting opportunities. Here’s how I’ll use ThoroFan’s $100 virtual money.

Straight bets across the board on the “most likely to win” offer no value, so let’s have fun with exotics.

$0.20 Super Key: #3/#1, #5, #6, #8, #9, #10 = $24.00

$0.20 Super Key: #5/#1, #3, #6, #8, #9, #10 = $24.00

$0.20 Super Key: #8/ #1, #3, #5, #6, #9, #10 = $24.00

$0.20 Super Key: #1/ #3, #5, #6, #8, #9, #10 = $24.00

Total bet $96.00 

Handicapper's Corner: LeComte Stakes (G3)

Full Field Wars for 2019 Kentucky Derby Points in LeComte

By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers-Off

This year marks the 75th running of the LeComte Stakes, a race that has held Grade 3 designation since 2003, and been run at distances varying from a mile to a mile and an eighth.  LeComte, by Boston out of the mare Reel, is best known as the only horse to hand Lexington a defeat.  On April 8, 1854, LeComte beat Lexington in two straight four-mile heats, with his setting a new four-mile record of 7 minutes, 26 seconds. LeComte is also a half-brother of another horse whose name lives on as the namesake of a three-year-old stakes race: his dam Reel also produced Prioress, by Sovereign.  Racing from ages two through seven, Prioress was the first American-bred and American-owned horse to win in England, and still has a sophomore fillies' sprint stakes run in her honor at Saratoga.

Though no winner of the LeComte has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby, 2013 hero Oxbow would go on to win the Preakness.  Several other LeComte victors have gone on to Classic placings: No Le Hace (1972) finished second in both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, Linkage (1982) finished second in the Preakness, and Hard Spun (2007) finished second in the Kentucky Derby and third in the Preakness.

The 2019 edition of the LeComte drew an overflow field to contend for a $200,000 purse and Kentucky Derby points for the top four finishers (10-4-2-1): 14 horses, plus one also eligible entry. The forecast for New Orleans on Saturday calls for rain through the morning, and wind during the day.  The wind may help dry the track somewhat, but if the forecast holds, it's unlikely the track will be truly fast by the time the dirt stakes roll around.  Thus, it'll be a positive if a horse has off-track form or good slop breeding.

There are a few pace horses, but the sharpest -- Manny Wah and Tight Ten -- are mired to the outside. A wire-to-wire score seems unlikely, but it looks like a good race for a better-drawn horse with some tactical speed to sit the trip and take over. 

And, that's just what War of Will can do.  The son of War Front started his career on the grass, becoming Grade 1 placed as a maiden, but finally got off the mark in a dirt maiden at Churchill Downs on November 24.  He stalked, pounced, and won easily over the sloppy track that day; trainer Mark Casse and owner Gary Barber must be thrilled with the forecast this time. The race was a mile and a sixteenth, so he is proven at two turns.  Tyler Gaffalione misses a day at Gulfstream to reunite with War of Will in the LeComte, another good sign. Though he has been on the shelf since November 24, the work pattern is regular since mid-December, and Casse fires at 17% off similar layoffs.  Add to that Casse's strong start at Fair Grounds, and War of Will is a formidable horse for formidable connections.

Plus Que Parfait will have to overcome an outside gate, but otherwise, there is plenty to like about the son of Point of Entry.  He blossomed in his two most recent races, his only tries going two turns on dirt: he broke his maiden third-out at Keeneland, nosing out another talented one in Harvey Wallbanger, and then fell just a neck shy of the more experienced Signalman in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), his stakes debut.  Plus Que Parfait has shown tactical versatility as well, winning from near the lead in his maiden score, but rallying from near the rear in the Kentucky Jockey Club.  That gives jockey Julien Leparoux options on where to put him, useful when navigating that outside post.

Finally, Tackett intrigues.  Though he makes his first stakes try in the LeComte, he does have the advantage of local form.  The son of Limehouse finished third on debut at Laurel, sprinting on the dirt, and then stretched out to this mile and seventy yard trip at Fair Grounds for a maiden on November 24.  He won on the front end -- and then returned to win a first-level allowance over the same course and distance from a stalking spot.  The one question is the wet track, since he has only run over fast dirt, but the pedigree is there.  (That holds especially true for dam Unostrike, by 19% mud stallion Macho Uno out of a mare who ran well over sloppy footing.)  Tackett's allowance win came with jockey Joe Bravo aboard; Bravo returns to the irons today.  He has been smiling for a lot of win pictures with trainer Mike Stidham in recent times: they're 27% of the last two months with a positive ROI.  If Tackett can take the modest step forward, he needs to run to the best of this company, they may be posing again.

Selections

#8 War of Will (6/1)
#12 Plus Que Parfait (9/2)
#3 Tackett (6/1) 

Longshot:  #7 Roiland (12/1) makes his first start since a credible albeit belated fifth in the Kentucky Jockey Club.  He showed a pattern of being a bit slow at the start at age two, though the addition of blinkers may help him show a bit more early position.  Trainer Tom Amoss is smart about when to add that headgear, as evidenced by his 23% win rate going first-time blinkers.  Amoss is also strong with layoff horses, a 25% winner over the last three years with horses rested 45-90 days. Though Roiland hasn't raced at Fair Grounds yet he has been working there since December, so he has had the chance to settle in.  Finally, the wet track should serve him well: he is by superstar mud sire Successful Appeal, and improved well enough late in the Kentucky Jockey Club last time out to suggest he can handle the surface. 

Handicapper's Corner: Marshua’s River Stakes (G3)

Hot Pace in Marshua's River Could Set Up For Closer

By: John Caro, S. Florida ThoroFan

This contest is over the turf for older fillies and mares going a route. Based on the forecast of rain showers early with some sunshine later in the day, high 76°, winds ESE at 10 to 20 mph, chance of rain 40% the turf may be running with a little cut if the winds don’t dry it out. Should be quite a test given the field and a closing kick may do the trick for this one.

#1 Bellavais (7/2) – Pletcher/Castellano – She is the class of the field with many black type races and some graded stakes at this level. Her posted speeds are good and she travels tracking the pace near the front when doing her best work. She won the Ginger Brew here during her three-year old campaign then moved up to the mid-eastern tracks winning only once over the lawn in 2017 then took a long (mare) break. She was given to Pletcher’s barn and he had her out for a win going a turf mile at Belmont after a year’s layoff with Javier abroad. Another 60 day break and she ran in the My Charmer flattened out to finish forth. Given the connections I have to like this mom but her heart in it? ITM but not the winner.

#2 Hogan’s Holiday (20-1) – Vitali/Reyes – She had two very nice wins at GPW when Reyes put her in a good closing move to take back to back wins at 20-1 and 40-1. Nice paydays. Then she went to the Tropical Parks Oaks (44-1) and nearly got crushed by her neighbors after three steps from the gate as the whole field ran for the first turn and the rail. She was shuffled back further through the turn and had terrible traffic throughout. But, good news, Reyes final move was a good effort and there was nobody in the race that closed quicker, through traffic, losing by 3.5 behind a wall and a very hot pace. If she stays out of trouble and makes that kind of move, she could be dangerous at another huge price.

#3 – Bombshell (6-1) – Delacour/Saez – She is in great form since coming over to Delacour. ITM three for four and three wins with two black type wins with two wins on the turf and a third by a neck as well. I like it. She likes to run near or on the lead which fits Saez to a T and she can be versatile to hang back a bit with the ability to kick late. Given her form, her price and the last statement above, she could well be a win contender.

#4 – Valedictorian (6-1) – Breen/Gaffalione – She dueled hard last time in the Claiming Crown Tiara with G aboard and was over taken by Peru. For those of you have the ability to watch the Tiara, I suggest you do so. It’s likely that this race will pace out very similar. No question that Val can stay with a solid pace and her mid-race speed can press any leader. She holds her form well only missing a first or second finish once in the last seven outings. I expect she’ll be second again given the late or power closers today.

#5 – Rose Tree (20-1) – Sheppard/Hernandez, B Jr. – Bad news, she’s only tried the turf once here for the Tropical Park Oaks when three. Poor speed in that one but a nice closing kick. Good news, Sheppard brings in sneaky good runners and the jockey’s last out with this girl was successful on dirt here. Two bullet works and her record on the AW and a wet track is encouraging. She is a closer. If a hot pace develops, she will be ITM if she handles the grass.

#6 – I’m Betty G (5-1) – Maker/Ortiz, I Jr. – I loved this one when she was at Kentucky Downs and bet her with vigor. Her prior record said she was in top form and looked well. KD racing is a different animal and demands pace awareness at its best. She didn’t have it that day. Since then she has gone out of form and that’s not encouraging even with Irad aboard. She’s done her best on flat tracks going a mile. I just don’t figure her at these odds, or winning. ITM? Maybe, but doubtful. I’d have given her 10 or 12-1 ML.

#7 – La Signare (3-1) – Lynch/Ortiz, J. – This gal is lightly raced but has competed with Grade I company and won in Grade III. Lynch has had her out burning up Palm Meadows lawn five times since the beginning of December. Her last win in the Wonder Again at Belmont against a significant foe was pedestrian through a half. Rosario was putting them to sleep. When the favorite made the move La Signare moved quicker and held. The next race in the Belmont Oaks she was put on the front and was tough through a mile and regressed rapidly. Hopefully, Jose can find a happy medium in her pace. I’d like her on top for this race, but I don’t think she’ll get the luxury of a slow pace.

#8 – Monte Crista (4-1) – Trombetta/Velazquez – I’ve been looking forward to seeing this little girl run. If you haven’t followed along there is an article about her trials and tribulations while at Woodbine and Trombetta’s frustration with a vet check for blood. It’s on the internet. From a form standpoint she is excellent. Don’t let the speed figures confuse you. Take a look at the times and tracks she’s been over. She hot. Throw out the last on the soft going at Belmont…she never got her footing though she has shown she can go over a good turf. She’s won four of six and a third place finish on the lawn and two for two at the distance. She’s out of Cape Blanco so you know where her heart is. Coming down she worked the GP turf twice with a speed work on the dirt as well. She seems to be the most consistent speed and can move to a higher gear. I think Johnny V can work out a trip for her.

Betting – On the face of it La Signare should be on top but the pace of the race is going to be quick and I believe a closer is going to be there at the line.

$2 Trifecta – 3, 8 with 3, 8, 7, 2 with All   $72

$4 Exacta Box – 3, 8, 2     $24

Alternate bet  

$7 Exacta - All with 8    $49

$4 Exacta – All with 2   $28

Take a flyer on the #2…. a 

Handicapper's Corner: Sham Stakes (G3)

More Baffert Babies in the Sham Stakes

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

The Sham Stakes (G3) was named in honor of the 1973 underdog shadowed Secretariat through the Triple Crown series.  The seal brown, well-bred colt finished second to Secretariat in the Kentucky Derby, despite bashing his head against the starting gate so hard he lost two teeth. Sham’s time under the wire was a sub 2:00 and faster than Monarchos' winning time in 2001. In any other year, Sham would have been a Triple Crown winner.  Sham was a superstar in his own right, equaling the track record for 1 1/8 miles in the Santa Anita Derby. 

The 2019 Sham Stakes awards points as a Kentucky Derby qualifier.  Most of the Sham Stakes victors have continued their careers as sprinter/milers. Only two colts have hit the board in both the Sham and the Kentucky Derby; Empire Maker finished second in both races in 2003 and 2005, Giacomo was third in the Sham during his successful trip to Louisville.

This year, seven three-year-old colts will run a mile over the Santa Anita main track. A trio of trainers each brings two colts to the party.

Bob Baffert has conditioned three of the last five Sham Stakes winners. This year, he sends out the much-hyped, even-money favorite Coliseum and Much Better, who switches back to dirt after two turf starts.

Let’s start with Coliseum. The son of Tapit out of the multiple graded stakes-winning sprinter Game Face made his racing debut at seven furlongs. He went gate to wire, striding out to win his debut by 6 3/4-lengths.  Coliseum earned a lofty Brisnet late-pace speed figure of 102.  The pretty gray colt has been firing off solo bullet works like a machine gun. 

Much Better, the other Baffert entry won his debut at 6 1/2 -furlongs on dirt then switched to turf, where he placed second in the Zuma Beach Stakes after a stretch battle.  The son of Pioneerof The Nile had an adventurous trip in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, where he was in tight, bumped and pushed wide. He decided enough was enough and checked in 17 lengths behind the winner.  Like Coliseum, Much Better is out of a graded stakes winning sprinter. Much Better’s breeze pattern is slower than Coliseum’s, but the dark bay colt did fire off two recent back-to-back bullet works.

Trainer Peter Miller also brought a duo of 3-year-olds to the Sham. In his first start for Miller, Gray Magician stretched out to a mile and dazzled with a 9 1/2-length victory over a maiden field at Del Mar, earning a late-pace speed figure of 94. The son of Graydar is out of the stakes-winning miler Burg Berg, and he’s a full brother to last year’s R.B. Lewis Stakes (G3) winner Lombo.  

  

Miller’s other contestant is the game front-runner Savagery. The son of Bellamy Road is the most experienced colt in the field, with six starts under his girth. He placed second in the Sunny Slope and Bob Hope (G3), but raced greenly in the Cash Call Futurity, blowing the first turn while wiping out competitors, lugging in through the stretch, and finally deciding he had enough and backing out of it. Savagery finished fourth but was placed fifth after a DQ.  The cut back to seven furlongs should help.

Keith Desormeaux trains longshots Sueno and Easy Shot. Sueno stretched successfully to a mile in the Gold Rush Stakes at Golden Gate in his first start since August. He draws the golden rail and Keith’s brother Kent switches from regular mount Easy Shot to Sueno. 

Easy Shot is the 30-1 longshot of the Sham Stakes. The son of Trappe Shot showed improvement in his last two starts, high-end maiden claimers, and he won his last at 6 1/2-furlongs. Although he’s kept lesser company, Easy Shot’s late pace speed figures fit with the rest of the field.  In his last breeze, Easy Shot flanked his workmate before drawing off in the lane under mild urging. Bejarano rides for the first time. 

Poor Gunmetal Gray. In his debut,  he was run over by Roadster and finished ten lengths back. Second time out at a mile, the son of Exchange Rate won easily at a mile by 6 3/4- lengths.  Fresh off his maiden score, the pretty gray colt faced Game Winner, and while he wasn’t going to catch his rival, Gunmetal Gray got up for second place. In his last start, the Hollendorfer trainee broke from post 11 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and eventually made his way up to fifth place behind Game Winner. Gunmetal Gray cuts back to a mile and gets a jock switch to Mike Smith. 

Selections:

So, the ultimate question is will Coliseum regress off his huge late pace speed figure? Will he vie for the lead or sit off the pace? Gunmetal Gray is the class of the field, and Mike Smith takes over. He wasn’t going to get close to Game Winner, but he did finish second on the American Pharoah and fifth in a full field in the BC Juvie. Easy Shot is an interesting horse. Yes, he’s been running in claiming races, but the $80K level isn’t much different than a maiden special.

#2 GUNMETAL GRAY (5-2)

#5 COLISEUM (1-1)

#1 SUENO (20-1)

#4 EASY SHOT (30-1)

Handigambling:

Overwhelming favorites do get beat – just look at what happened to Audible in the Harlan’s Holiday Stakes. If you had boxed him with the winner and third place horses, the ones most likely to finish in the money, you would have received a nice payout.  

When there’s an overwhelming favorite in the race and looks better on paper, I like to box them with the horses most likely to benefit if the favorite comes up short.  

$100 virtual ThoroFan currency

$4.00 Super box - #2, #5, #1, #4 = $96.00