Handicapper's Corner: Florida Derby (G1)

Nine Hopefuls in Florida Derby

By Mike Mills, ThoroFan Member

Florida Derby winners over the past ten years that have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby include, Big Brown, Orb, Nyquist, and Always Dreaming.  Nine runners will line up for Saturday's running of the Grade I Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park in hopes of following in those big footsteps.

1) Strike Power, ML 4-1

Brings speed to the party from the rail.  Not so sure he wants to go this far being a son of Speightstown.

Lauren King

2) Millionaire Runner, ML 50-1

He is among the most experienced runners in the field with ten starts.  Connections have been pointing this guy too high since his only lifetime win in a $35,000 Maiden Claimer.  Now he is pointed even higher.  Doesn’t belong.

3) Tip Sheet, ML 30-1

With a name like this those of us who write these things should be all over him, but than again let’s not get too desperate.  Another with ten lifetime starts who has been firing to high and goes even higher.  Pass.

4) Promises Fulfilled, ML 3-1

Has most likely already earned a trip to the Derby.  He has done little wrong thus far winning three of four lifetime starts.  Winner of the Fountain of Youth in his last while having things pretty much his own way throughout.  Romans says he will send.  Thinking this guy is going to have a bit more company up front this go around and will need a huge effort to get the win.

Photo: Gulfstream Park

5) Storm Runner, ML 20-1

Romans’ second entrant made his stakes debut in the Fountain of Youth, finishing a tough trip seventh.  Looking for this fellow to present a better accounting of himself here hitting the board at a good price.

6) Catholic Boy, ML 7-2

This will be his second of the layoff for former Pletcher understudy Jonathan Thomas.  May have not been fully cranked up for his return in the Sam Davis last month.  Picks up Irad and projects to fit the flow of the race.  Looking for big effort out of this guy.

7) Hofburg, ML 20-1

Son of leading sire Tapit shows up here for Bill Mott with just two starts winning his maiden earlier in the month over the track.  Should like the distance but the step up from maidens to the Grade I Florida Derby is huge.  Might find useful underneath on the exotic tickets.

8) Audible, ML 9-5

Pletcher’s New York bred has done little wrong in his four-race career, winning his last three, and finishing third in his debut back in September.  Picks up Johnny Velazquez, winner of last year’s race and three other previous Florida Derby’s.  Posted a nice winning running time in the Holy Bull over the strip.  One concern is the post.

9) Mississippi, ML 12-1

Makes his stakes debut following two good runner-up finishes in the allowance ranks over the past two months at Gulfstream.  Projects to like the distance and may show a keener interest in the front with the additional of blinkers for the first time.

The Pick

Looking for Catholic Boy to show up Saturday a bit tighter then he was for his return to racing last month in the Sam Davis at Tampa.  Think he trips out the best in here laying off the speed and getting the first jump heading for home.  The student gets the best of the teacher with Audible second.

The Play $92

$30 winner, $30 place #6, $60

$2 tri 6/1-5-8/1-4-5-8-9, $24

$2 tri 8/6/1-4-5-9, $8

Have a Day

Mike Mills

Handicapper's Corner: Gulfstream Oaks (G2)

Taking Charge of the Gulfstream Oaks

By: Laurie Ross, IMTBreds

The 1 1/16 mile Gulfstream Park Oaks is one of the last steppingstones to the Kentucky Oaks. Some notable 3YO fillies have used the Grade 2 event to springboard to fame. Only three fillies have pulled off the Gulfstream Park Oaks/Kentucky Oaks double, Davona Dale (1979), Open Mind (1989), and Dispute (1993).  The Gulfstream Park Oaks certainly isn’t without merit, as many fillies have gone on to greatness, despite not becoming Kentucky Oaks winners. Dreaming of Julia, Grace Hall, Devil May Care, can be found on the winning roster. Champion Songbird’s dam Ivanavinalot captured the 2003 Gulfstream Park Oaks. 

This year, a full field of 13 fillies will enter the starting gate for the 2018 Gulfstream Park Oaks.

Main Contenders

DAISY — made a huge four-wide move in the 1 mile 40 yard Suncoast Stakes at Tampa, but ran out of real estate, missing the victory by 3/4 length to C. S. Incharge. The daughter of Blame has a distance-loving pedigree and is making her second start of the season. Trainer John Servis equips the dark bay miss with a shiny new set of blinkers, hoping to get her into the game earlier in the race. The trainer is 22% with that angle. 

TAKE CHARGE PAULA — won the Forward Gal Stakes (G3) but was the beaten favorite in the Davona Dale (G2), after racing farther back than her customary pace-pressing position. The daughter of Take Charge Indy is making her third start off the layoff and gets a jock switch to Jose Ortiz. 

C. S. INCHARGE — is a late bloomer. She hit the board only twice in four starts last year but has won both of her starts this year. She and Take Charge Paula share similar breeding; both are by Take Charge Indy out of Unbridled sire line mares. The Dale Romans trainee breaks from post #8, not a good spot for a filly who likes to be forwardly placed since she’ll be wide into the first turn and use up energy to get a good position. 

Top Threats

COACH ROCKS — finally had her picture taken after six failed attempts. She’s only been out of the money twice in her careers. Sure, she’s jumping from an 8-length maiden score into a contentious Grade 2 race, but the daughter of Oxbow is another late bloomer bred to love two turns. Since her dominating maiden victory, the Dale Romans trainee has been working lights out at Gulfstream. 

MIHRAB — is stuck in the #12 post, but the one run closer should be able to hang back and not lose too much ground after the first turn. Her running style isn’t conducive to a win over the speed-favoring Gulfstream dirt, but she’s stretching out to two turns since her debut, and the daughter of Tiznow will want every inch, and then some. Trainer Graham Motion adds blinkers to Mihrab, perhaps in an effort to get her into the race earlier.  He’s 21% with that angle. 

PRINCESS WARRIOR — switches back to dirt in her second start off the layoff. She owns a single victory, and her claim to fame was a distant second in the Darley Alcibiades Stakes (G1) in her second start. The daughter of Midshipman will break from post #9, not a good spot. Herr pedigree indicates that she may be best as a miler, and she’ll lose some ground on the first turn. Like Mihrab, Princess Warrior is a one-run closer, so perhaps she’s good enough to get a minor placing.

Selections:

Will we see an exacta for the exciting young sire Take Charge Indy? TAKE CHARGE PAULA, and C. S. INCHARGE could do it. DAISY could spoil their bid. COACH ROCKS is a live longshot and look for MIHRAB to come running late.

#3 TAKE CHARGE PAULA (4-1)

#5 DAISY (9-2)

#8 C. S. INCHARGE (6-1)

#12 MIHRAB (12-1)

Handigambling:

Plenty of options in a full field.  Two choices, either spread the cash out to cover the fillies most likely to hit the board in hopes of nailing a big score, or keep it simple. I prefer the later, playing some exactas and tossing a few bucks on the live longshots. Tip: ALWAYS box your exotic wagers.

$4 Exacta box: #3, #5, #8, #12, #2  = $80

$2 W/P (4-1 or higher) #2, #12 = $12

$8 dried out slice of pizza and bottle of water.

 

Handicapper's Corner: Dubai World Cup (Group 1)

West Coast Class in Dubai

By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers Off

This year marks the twenty-third edition of the Carnival's flagship race, the Dubai World Cup.  It offers a rich $10,000,000 purse, more than any race on Earth save the Pegasus World Cup.  Originally run over the dirt at Nad Al Sheba, it was moved to the Tapeta when Meydan opened in 2010.  

The very first World Cup in 1996 saw Cigar score the fourteenth of sixteen consecutive victories.  Cigar is not the only Hall of Fame inductee to have won the Dubai World Cup during his career: Silver Charm (1998), Invasor (2007), and Curlin (2008) have also emerged victorious in Dubai's biggest race.  All of those horses won the races in its days on the dirt. 

 

During the Tapeta era, 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom (2013).  In 2015, Meydan switched back from Tapeta to dirt.  Though Meydan local Prince Bishop won the first over the new dirt surface, American horses won the next two.  In 2016, California Chrome joined Animal Kingdom and Silver Charm in the club of horses who have won both the Kentucky Derby and the Dubai World Cup.  Last year, Arrogate notched the final victory of his short, brilliant career in the race.  

Here's the field for this year's Dubai World Cup.

 

Trainer Bob Baffert remarked this week that the Dubai World Cup  would give West Coast some class relief -- after all, he won't be chasing Gun Runner around.  This space agrees and finds it hard not to like him on top here.  Baffert knows how to pick good horses to send to Dubai, and West Coast fits this spot like a glove.  He has been able to carry his form to multiple tracks, and he has proven mile and a quarter stamina.  West Coast's running style also fits beautifully: he can lead if the race demands it, but he more typically stalks.    Speed can be quite good, but with North America likely to go from inside, the ability to stalk should pay dividends.  West Coast looks like the total package here: stamina, class, and a conditioner who knows the Dubai World Cup winners' circle well.  He'll be a short price but oppose him at your peril. 

This is Dubai, and it's hard to talk about Dubai without mentioning who wears the Godolphin blue.  They send a pair out here: Thunder Snow from the barn of Saeed bin Suroor, and Talismanic from the Andre Fabre yard.  Thunder Snow is well proven on the dirt, but it looks like 2000 metres may be a little long for him.  

On the other hand, Breeders' Cup Turf (G1) winner Talismanic is trying dirt for the first time and has some upside.  Not only is his breeding all class, but he has some strains of solid dirt acumen, being by Medaglia d'Oro out of a Machiavellian mare.  (Machiavellian, of course, sired Street Cry -- sire of Zenyatta, Street Sense, and Street Boss.)  He has a relatively forward running style; though he won't be on the lead, if he handles dirt as well in the afternoon as he does in the mornings, he has a chance to keep them in range and not leave himself too much to do late.  Add in the fact that Talismanic has the stamina to get this distance, he looks the most likely to pose a threat for the home team. 

West Coast isn't the only horse here from the Bob Baffert barn – he also sends Mubtaahij out from his California base.  The son of Dubawi comes to the Dubai World Cup off a rather strange run in the Santa Anita Handicap (G1), a race in which it was unlikely on paper that he'd set the early fractions, but he did.  That is a positive suggestion that Mubtaahij will stay relatively forward in this race, and not leave himself too much to do late.    Though there's always a bit of a question with a horse who ships out to Dubai when the trainer has called an audible?  Baffert knows this race well enough to trust him in that move, especially when he's sending a horse with proven form over both the Meydan dirt and the 2000-metre trip.  As the Baffert "B", Mubtaahij presents a fair chance at a fair price.

Selections:

#9 West Coast

#7 Talismanic

#5 Mubtaahij

Longshot:  Several others in this field would be no surprise to see in the trifecta or superfecta: Gunnevera or Forever Unbridled may clunk up for a share, Thunder Snow may stay on for a piece, and even Furia Cruzada has been in decent form. 

But, from the perspective of finding a potential longshot winner?  There's an old saying, speed is its own bias.    #2 North America  won the local prep for the Dubai World Cup, the Al Maktoum Challenge Round 3 (G1) on Super Saturday.  The race covers the same course and distance as the Dubai World Cup, 2000 metres over the Meydan dirt.  That day, under rider Richard Mullen, he quickly cleared to the front, leaving Thunder Snow in a futile chase down the lane.  Speed held very well that day, par for the course on Super Saturday.  But, the way the Dubai World Cup drew?  The only one who stands to try to keep him honest up front is West Coast.  Should West Coast choose to rate, or if he has some trouble at the break, or runs into some traffic trying to get in from that outside gate?  Then, North America may have things well enough for long enough on the front to remain a factor late.