Handicapper's Corner La Prevoyante Handicap (G3)

Texting Can Receive Pace in La Prevoyante Handicap

By: Reinier Macatangay, Setting the Pace

Ah, the $200,000 La Prevoyante Handicap (GIII). This turf race is one of the undercard stakes on Pegasus World Cup Day at Gulfstream Park. As stated before, turf analysis requires an extra depth of work compared to dirt. The trouble found in turf racing is subtle, and pace can be difficult to read at times. 


Furthermore, this race is a marathon 1 ½ miles, a distance that is tricky for handicappers. But, no one gets better at anything unless they keep trying (although at some point, gamblers should take a break). 


So, here is an effort to read the pace and pick a winner. 

1) Miss Nancy (20-1) – A bit of a wildcard without any marathon efforts. Arch is obviously a good horse for siring long-distance runners, and Fusaichi Pegasus as a damsire is probably a plus. Julien Leparoux hops on board and is known for his turf riding abilities. This mare is still a question mark though. 


2) Summersault (5-1) – Mark Henning’s entry ran okay to finish fourth in the Long Island Stakes (GIII) at Aqueduct. She kind of lost ground towards the end, but her other two 1 ½-mile races are solid. Jockey Paco Lopez will attempt to save ground on both turns and see what happens. Given the projected pace scenario, it would be preferable to see her take a few lengths back and close late. Contender. 


3) Beauly (6-1) – She never had enough pace in the Via Borghese S. The winner Daring Duchess took them wire to wire. Going farther back into Beauly’s form, she does display a few nice efforts, including a close fourth-place finish in the Flower Bowl Invitational (GI). It is a concern her two wins in this country came at shorter distances. Does she need pace, or does the longer distance flatten out her run? 


4) Daring Duchess (7/2) – From a pace handicapping standpoint, she is one to play against. This one had things completely her own way in the Via Borghese. Plus, it seems she requires a comfortable lead or she quits. This race features other speed, including the heavy favorite Apple Betty. Pass for now. 


5) Texting (4-1) – Like Beauly, this mare was pace compromised in the Via Borghese. At least, she never seems to throw in clunkers. In her last 10 starts, she never lost by more than 4 ¼ lengths. The four-length loss came in a 1 1/16-mile race, and she is more comfortable going longer distances. On the negative side, trainer Chad Brown will knock the value down a bit. She still remains the top pick. 


6) Taralena (15-1) – Her habit of losing ground late is concerning. Pass. 
 

7) Apple Betty (7-5) – Obviously, this is a classy mare who won the Dowager (GIII) by three lengths at Keeneland. Two starts back at Saratoga though, she finished behind Summersault when a fast pace occurred. The problem is, a fast pace is brewing again with Daring Duchess’ presence. Play against her. 


Selections
Texting just feels like the most consistent closer in a marathon likely to feature a hot pace. She will find a way to settle into a good position under rider Javier Castellano, and hopefully strike when the time is right. Beauly or Summersault also can possibly work out a good trip and post the small upset. 


$100 Handigambling 
$10 Exacta Box – Texting, Summersault, Beauly ($60 in all) $20 Win/Place – Texting ($40 in all)