Handicapper's Corner: LeComte Stakes (G3)

Time to Kowboy Up

By Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

Fair Grounds Race Course in New Orleans, Louisiana, will be the scene of the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes on Saturday, where a very deep and promising field of three-year olds chase after the winner's share of the $200,000 purse, and battle for the 17 qualifying points (10-4-2-1) awarded to the first four finishers toward earning a berth the Kentucky Derby in May.

 

The one-mile and seventy yards event is the first of

three preps on the 2018 Fairgrounds road to Louisville. Nearly half the starting gate will be filled from the barns of Steve Asmussen and Larry Jones, who each send out a trio of horses. Both conditioners have won numerous major races, many of them multiple times, however, Asmussen and Jones are still in search of their first Kentucky Derby winner.

The multiple stakes winning filly from the Mark Casse stable, Wonder Gadot, has been entered in this full field of Kentucky Derby hopefuls. However, she has been cross-entered in the Silverbulletday Stakes two races earlier on the card, and it appears she will start in that event against her own gender.

At the time of this write-up (Thursday), she has not been officially withdrawn from the Lecomte, so she is included in my horse analysis.

The Lecomte Stakes will be followed by the February 17th Risen Star and the March 24th Louisiana Derby. The former race, held at one-mile and one sixteenth will offer points on a 50-20-10- 5 scale, while the latter event worth 100-40-20-10 in points value, will be contested at one-mile and one eighth.

The Lecomte is carded as race nine with post time slated for 5:03 local time. Here is a look at the field.

PP - Horse/Jockey/Trainer

1 - Lone Sailor/Mena/Amoss--His fifth-place finish last race in the KJC Stakes was a very acceptable performance given that he was forced to take the scenic route after exiting a wide post. He's been coming from far off the pace since stretching out, so first-time blinkers are added in an effort to put him closer to the early action, and that could unfold since he now leaves from the rail.

2 - Snapper Sinclair/Beschizza/ Asmussen--Colt had a two-race turf winning streak broken in the B.C. Juvenile Turf. where he was up close early from a wide post before having to steady and then dropping back. His affinity for the turf needs to be transferred to the dirt.

3 - Wonder Gadot/Velazquez/Casse--Filly is the only graded stakes winner in the field, and a multiple graded winner to boot having taken the G3 Mazarine and G2 Demoiselle in her two-year old season. She's won 3 of 5 starts, with each victory being registered over a different surface: Turf, synthetic and dirt, a 'hat trick' if you will. Is the undisputed class of this field. MOST LIKELY WILL SCRATCH.

4 - Analyze This Jet/Risenhoover/Eoff--After finally breaking through in his sixth maiden attempt, a 6 1/4-length victory, this colt then doubled up by winning his turf debut when drawing clear to win a minor stake at Retama Park. He didn't threaten when shortened to seven furlongs last time out, so maybe a return back to two turns will provide a spark.

5 - Kowboy Karma/Hernandez/Jones--Won his debut by a dozen lengths going six furlongs, then followed up with a minor stakes win. He's had a bit of trouble in his last three races, including the G1 Champagne where he finished fourth behind Good Magic and Enticed, both subsequent graded stakes winners. Has a sprinters pedigree, but he did finish second in his only two-turn race. 

6 - Believe In Royalty/Albarado/Jones--When he faced winner's for the first time two races back, he got out to an easy lead and opened up a big margin on his rivals in the stretch before crossing the wire 3 3/4-lengths in front. Last time out, he was well supported when he stepped up in class to the Springboard Mile, but finished sixth after a wide and rough trip. He should build of that recent effort and perform better in this spot.

7 - Night Strike/Borel/Calhoun--After five failed attempts in maiden races, he achieved his first (and only) win in a state-bred stakes at Remington Park. Although he was beaten by a dozen lengths in the Springboard Mile, he finished in front of more than half the field in a fourth-place effort. No doubt, Calvin will take this stone-cold closer right over to the rail and then hope for the best after that. 

8 - Zing Zang/Bridgmohan/Asmussen--Broke maiden ranks at this very distance here last month coming from far off-the-pace. Has only three starts, but he's steadily gotten better overall, and its shown in his speed figures, which have increased. He'll have to step up his game even further to be competitive.

9 - Zeke/Bravo/Stidham--Undefeated in two career starts, and both were narrow victories with contrasting running styles over two surfaces. Won by a head when he wired the field in his debut on dirt at Laurel in October. Then was shipped here last month, and beat NW1x allowance rivals on the grass when he closed from seventh to get up by a nose. His speed figures are too slow to win this.

10 - Instilled Regard/Castellano/Hollendorfer--Put it all together when breaking his maiden in a runaway in start number three. Off that fine performance, he was rewarded with a try in the G1 Los Alamitos Derby where, in a three-horse stretch battle, he was knocked off-stride past the sixteenth pole. He ended up third, but was elevated to second via disqualification. The eventual winner (also by dq) took care of business nicely in last weekend’s Sham Stakes. For this colt, the proverbial light bulb went on since going two-turns.

11 -Principe Guilherme/Geroux/Asmussen--Created a 'buzz' when he whipped maidens by 6 1/4-lengths in his career debut in November at Churchill. That buzz got louder after he destroyed a first level allowance optional claiming field last month over this oval at this very distance. With his speed, this son of leading North American sire Tapit, should get away quick from this wide post and secure good early position, but he'll also have to relax too, as this race is filled with early pace. How he fares in that department is vital to his outcome.

12 - Prince Lucky/Leparoux/Jones--This runner recently won the Nursery Stakes at Parx in Pennsylvania, the state where he was bred. That score gave him three wins from four starts. Those races were all sprints, but the way he won a couple of them with room to spare, might indicate he'll have no problems with the added distance around two-turns. This colt definitely has more to give.

13 - Ebben/Lanerie/Margolis--Following his maiden win last summer at Indiana Downs, this one got shelled pretty good in three successive stakes, before getting back to the winner's circle against Nw1x allowance optional claiming opponents at Churchill Downs. Earned a good speed figure too in that win, but overall, it’s hard to look past the fact he probably isn't up to competing at this level.

14 - Trigger Warning/Doyle/Lejzerowicz--Drew in from the also-eligible list. Finished third as the beaten favorite in his most recent affair at Turf Paradise, which was also the sight of his maiden win two back. Those two efforts were much improved races than his first two starts that occurred at two other tracks. Things seem to be starting to click for this colt, but I really believe it’s more of him just taking a good liking to the Turf Paradise surface.

Analysis: For the record, if the connections of Wonder Gadot do end up changing their minds and opt to run their filly here, she is my top call. She has the class and speed figures that set her apart from the others.

Without her in the field, the Lecomte becomes wide open, and the one I’m siding with is Kowboy Karma. His fourth-place finish in the G1 Champagne is better than it looks. He was forced to take the overland route in that contest, and was still able to finish in front of more than half the field. The race included some talented horses, including 2^nd and 3^rd place finishers, Good Magic and Enticed, who went on to capture the B.C. Juvenile and Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes respectively. I indicated above in my horse analysis that Kowboy Karma’s pedigree seems sprint oriented, however, his effort in the one-mile Sapling Stakes going two turns was a good showing. There is plenty of speed signed on here, and this closer should get a solid pace to run at. Let’s hope he gets the trip. I strongly believe he’s ready to fire a big race, and the little bit of extra ground asked of him to cover should pose no issues. 

Instilled Regard made a big move in the Los Alamitos Derby and look like he was going to go by the leader, but didn’t. Instead he got locked in a three-horse battle down the stretch and was bumped from both sides and finished third, before being moved up to second via disqualification. The winner, McKinzie, easily dispatched his rivals last weekend in the Sham, so that flatters the performance of Instilled Regard. The Hollendorfer colt has become a different horse since the stretch out, and he should continue to improve in this spot. Look for this one to sit a good trip in behind the speed and get first run on the tiring leaders. He  very well could win race, but the my top choice will be a better price.

PLAY: With $100 Thoro-fan dollars, I will bet $60 to win on Kowboy Karma and play him with Instilled Regard in a $20 exacta box (cost $40).

Good luck, and as always, enjoy the race.