Saturday, January 6, 2018

Handicapper's Corner: Sham Stakes (G3)

Baffert Primed For Another Sham Stakes Win

By: Laurie Ross, IMTBreds



The Sham Stakes (G3) was named in honor of the 1973 underdog shadowed Secretariat through the Triple Crown series.  The dark brown, well-bred colt finished second to Secretariat in the Kentucky Derby, despite bashing his head against the starting gate so hard he lost two teeth. Sham’s time under the wire was a sub 2:00 and faster than Monarchos' winning time in 2001. In any other year, Sham would have been a Triple Crown winner.  Sham was a superstar in his own right, equaling the track record for 1 1/8 miles in the Santa Anita Derby. 


The 2018 Sham Stakes awards points as a Kentucky Derby qualifier.  Yet, most of the Sham Stakes victors have continued their careers as sprinter/milers. Only two colts have hit the board in both the Sham and the Kentucky Derby; Empire Maker finished second in both races in 2003 and in 2005, Giacomo was third in the Sham during his successful trip to Louisville.


This year, seven three-year-old colts will run a mile over the Santa Anita main track.  




MCKINZIE is the class of the field.  After fighting on the lead in the CashCall Futurity (G1), the bay colt played bumper cars in an exciting three-way finishing, taking the brunt of the action. He was awarded the win when his stablemate Solomini was DQ’ed for causing the incident. Baffert takes the blinkers of McKinzie in hopes that he’ll relax.

MOURINHO was a 4 1/2 length winner in his sprint debut. He followed up with two second-place finishes in the Speakeasy Stakes, and the Bob Hope Stakes (G2. The son of Super Saver gets to stretch out to a mile this time around, and Baffert puts the blinkers back on to harness the colt’s front-running speed.

HERE IS HAPPY was wiped out at the start of the Bob Hope Stakes and lost all chance. He trailed the entire way and wasn’t asked to run, so consider it a slow work out. Here Is Happy has gate issues. In four starts, the Craig Lewis trainee has been squeezed at the start twice and was off slow the other two times. In the 6-furlong Speakeasy Stakes, Here is Happy made up ground from last place to finish third, two lengths behind Mourinho. Here is Happy’s final furlong was 13.18, compared to his rival’s 13.76. Here is Happy has the pedigree to stretch out. Lewis made some adjustments to Here is Happy, starting with the ultimate equipment change. Here is Happy is now a gelding.  He’ll also get first-time blinkers to help him get a clean start. His closer running style will be dangerous in a race loaded with speed.

CITY PLAN’s only victory was a maiden race carded for a mile at Los Alamitos. It was the only time he was forwardly placed. In two other starts, he was off the board chasing the speed.  However, shifting to Golden Gate for his last start City Plan parlayed that late-running style into a 3/4 length victory. Granted, the company was softer than what he’ll face here.  By Street Sense out of a full sister to Champion 2YO Filly Tempera (by A.P. Indy), City Plan is bred to improve with maturity.

Jerry Hollendorfer stretched SHIVERMETIMBERS to a mile in his last start and was rewarded with a visit to the winner's circle. The chocolate brown son of Shanghai Bobby has shown speed figure improvement in each start but will get a class test.

ALL OUT BLITZ  has also shown speed figure improvement in each start and will get a class and distance test. The son of Concord Point earned his first trip to the winner's circle after blitzing six furlongs in 1:09.25 at Los Alamitos, which is more speed favoring than Santa Anita and Del Mar. Simon Callaghan gave the colt a sharp pre-race 4-furlong bullet breeze, and All Out Blitz may play catch me if you can on the front end.

With six starts under his girth, MY BOY JACK is the most experienced colt in the race. He finished on the board in four of those starts, all at a mile, over the turf.  His lone experience on dirt resulted in an 8 3/4 loss in his debut.  But hey, it’s early in the season, he’s grown up some, why not take a shot in a weak graded stakes with Derby points on the line.  Trainer Keith Desormeaux has a 14% win rate with the turf to dirt angle. The move isn’t without precedent. In 2015, Collected won the Sham after a runner-up finish in the Cecil B. DeMille Stakes (G3) over the Del Mar lawn. My Boy Jack works just fine on the dirt. He doesn’t have turfy action. Often, it isn’t the surface switch that bothers horses, it’s the dirt in the face.

Selections:
Since the inception of the Sham Stakes, all winners (except for Gormley’s 7th place finish in the BC Juvenile) have finished fourth or better in their prep race. Nine of the last twelve winners won their last start.
Since the Grade 3 race’s inception, Bob Baffert has taken home four trophies, including the very first one presented.  Are we looking at a Baffert exacta? Not so fast. Five of the seven Sham entrants have a pace-setting or pressing running style, including MCKINZIE and MOURINHO. One takes the blinkers off, the other puts them back on. 

Some racing fans are puzzled, not understanding how the whole blinkers thing works.  It all has to do with a horse’s mindset. Blinkers are used to help a horse focus. The theory is that if he can’t see the other horses, he’ll be less aggressive and relax. In some cases, blinkers backfire, and a horse will become more determined in the race because he hears rivals, but doesn’t know where they are. These types of horses relax when the blinkers are taken off.  Confusing? Yep. Even the trainers don’t always know what will work, especially with a lightly raced horse who is still figuring things out. 

Ok, back to race selections.  Baffert’s duo may cancel each other out with the help of the appropriately monikered ALL OUT BLITZ, although MCKINZIE has shown that he can sit off the early pace. If they go too fast early, look for SHIVERMETIMBERS, and if he can get out of the gate, HERE IS HAPPY has late speed and can spoil someone’s exotics. Should MY BOY JACK find the dirt to his liking, don’t be surprised to see him right there at the finish. 

#6 MCKINZIE (3-5)
#5 SHIVERMETIMBERS (7-2)
#1 MY BOY JACK (12-1)
#4 MOURINHO (4-1)


Handigambling:
Short field, short prices. Not a good betting proposition for exotics, unless a longshot wins.  So, let’s stick with simple Win/Place bets on our logical longshots. 

$100 virtual ThoroFan currency
$10 Win/Place (4-1 or higher) #1 MY BOY JACK, #2 HERE IS HAPPY = $40
$60 – donation to the backstretch workers & horses displaced by the San Luis Rey fire.

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