Risk vs. Reward in Sunshine Millions Classic
By: Jeffrey Cobb, S. Florida ThoroFan Member
I'm writing from frigid Loveland, Colorado tonight, so this is going to be short and sweet.
Crocodile has never gone the distance. Nine furlongs is probably too much to expect
for his 4-year-old debut.
Catholic Cowboy has won at the distance and his races, but
only raced twice as a 7-year-old last year making me question him just a
little.
Flemish Cap has early foot and a rider upgrade from
Tyler Gaffalione to Javier Castellano.
In the past, Castellano has disappointed me on dirt which makes me a
little leery. The other thing to be leery about is Flemish Cap is coming off a
Thorograph top on December 31. He may be
coming back too soon off that effort.
Sorry to say, but
this race comes down to Mr. Jordan and Richard the Great. The two morning line
favorites. Both get nice outside, but not too far, post positions.
Mr. Jordan has never won at Gulfstream and has not won
at this distance in 4 tries. He did finish in the money 3 out those 4 tries.
Richard the Great has never gone 9 furlongs and has finished
behind Mr. Jordan in the last two including last time out at Gulfstream
Park. Although it tempting to root for
Richard to turn the tables on Mr. Jordan, my experience has told me that more
often than not the that has already beaten a rival twice will most likely win
again.
Selection
I pick Mr. Jordan to
win the race and get his first win at this distance.
Handigambling
Not a good betting
race in my opinion, but if you must, and I know some of you must, the best way
to play this, in my opinion is a straight Mr. Jordan-Richard the Great
exacta. Go light because the risk vs.
reward is not in your favor.
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