Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Santa Anita Derby (G1)

Shooting for a Santa Anita Derby Upset

By: John DaSilva, ThoroCap

As the world continues to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, the racing industry is piecing together a schedule to prepare horses for the delayed Triple Crown.  One of the prep races that was postponed because of the pandemic was the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. Originally scheduled to be run on April 4th, the race is now scheduled to be run on Saturday at the same distance of a mile in the eighth over the main track at Santa Anita.

The Santa Anita Derby remains a major prep for the Kentucky Derby, with the top four finishers getting Kentucky Derby qualifying points on a 100-40-20-10 basis. While it is not impossible, it is highly unlikely that winner of the Santa Anita Derby would come back in two weeks to run the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes now cut back to a mile and an eighth. More than likely the winner will run in the Grade 1 Haskell at Monmouth Park on July 18th.

Television coverage on the Santa Anita Derby will be on TVG with Trackside Live from 6 pm to 7:30 pm. That broadcast will also be shown on NBCSN. The Santa Anita Derby is race 8 with a scheduled post time of 7:09 pm ET.

The 4/5 morning-line favorite for the Santa Anita Derby is Authentic. The Bob Baffert trainee is undefeated and comes off an impressive gate to wire victory in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes on March 7th. Authentic has always been pointed to this race, whether it was to be run in April or now. But after an injury to Nadal that was discovered after a workout last week, there was some thought that Baffert calls an audible and point Authentic to the Belmont Stakes. But the horse will remain in Santa Anita for this race. He will also make his first start since majority ownership interest of Authentic was purchased by Spendthrift Farm from Starlight Racing and Madaket Stables this week. Regular rider Drayden Van Dyke retains the mount and they will break from post 7.

The major challenger to Authentic should be Honor A.P.  the John Shirreffs trainee ran second to Authentic in the San Felipe. Sherriffs is known as a patient trainer and is willing to use stakes races as preps to reach a goal, as he did in 2005 with Giacomo when he ran in four stakes and lost them all prior to peaking and winning the Kentucky Derby at odds of 50-1. Mike Smith, Sherriffs go-to jockey in stakes races, has the call. Honor A.P. will break from post 6 and is the second choice on the morning line at 9-5.

People looking for an upset can look at Shooters Shoot. The Peter Eurton trainee makes his stakes debut after winning an allowance/optional claimer at Oaklawn Park in April in his first start since breaking his maiden. Eurton is another patient trainer that can get all horse ready to peak and win a goal at a price. Shooters Shoot has shown improved early speed since returning to racing going two turns. No doubt there will be a camera pointed to Peter’s daughter Britney as well. A rising star in racing coverage that works for TVG and NBC. She is not afraid to show her emotions in a race that her father could win. Shooters Shoot is reunited with Abel Cedillo, who as of this writing is second in the jockey standings at Santa Anita since live racing returned from a two-month break with a record of 16 for 80. They will be leaving from Post 3 and is 8-1 on the morning line.

Rushie makes his stakes debut for Mike McCarthy. He comes off a victory as the favorite at Oaklawn Park on the Arkansas Derby undercard.  He should stalk the early pace while getting a ground-saving trip Flavien Prat get the mount, who will break from post 2 and is 8-1 on the morning line.

Anneau d’Or is an intriguing prospect. In the division of the Arkansas Derby won by Charlatan, he lost all chance of winning when he broke last. Prior to that he was bumped early and fell back as the favorite in the Risen Star Stakes. Victor Espinoza picks up the mount in hopes of getting him to leave the gate with no trouble. The Blaine Wright trainee breaks from post 4 and is 15-1 on the morning line.

Azul Coast is the lesser-known of the Baffert Triple Crown nominees. He does have a stakes win under his belt as he won the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate in February. He was second to Authentic in the Sham Stakes in his previous start. He makes his first start since winning the El Camino Real Derby. Umberto Rispoli picks up the mount, who will break from post 5 and is 15-1 on the morning line.

Friar’s Road completes the field. The Mike McCarthy trainee is a maiden that finished second in the last two starts at a route. He is just filler for the race to have it go with a field of seven. Geovanni Franco has the mount at 20-1.

Analysis

Handicapping the race, Authentic is the one to beat. Since stretching out to a route Authentic has led at every call in both starts going two turns. But if Shooters Shoot, who has the advantage of a post position inside Authentic, can break sharply and gain the lead going into the clubhouse turn, it will be interesting to see how Authentic will adjust having to stalk the pace.

The Play

Going with Shooters Shoot to upset the field so bet $50 to win on him. Play a $20 Exacta part wheel Shooters Shoot over Authentic and Honor A.P. with a reverse $5 exacta wheel.

Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Honeymoon Stakes (G3)

Lighting the way in the Honeymoon Stakes

By: Laurie Ross, ThoroCap

The Honeymoon Stakes gives 3-year-old fillies the opportunity to stretch their legs 1 1/8-miles over the Santa Anita Lawn.

The Grade 3 event attracted a well-matched field of nine. Red Lark is the only filly in the group that has traveled nine furlongs, and she won her maiden at the distance.

The Favorites

STELA STAR (IRE) (2-1) has hit the board in three of five lifetime. She was last seen tearing down the stretch to just miss the victory by a nose in the one-mile China Doll in her U.S. debut. The John Sadler trainee owns the highest Brisnet late-pace speed figure in the field and is one of five who have a one-run closing style.

LAURA’S LIGHT (5-2) is four for five lifetime, and perfect over the Santa Anita lawn. She got the best of Croughavouke, Parkour, Guitty, and Little Bird in the Blue Norther Stakes.  By leading second-crop sire Constitution, Laura’s Light’s distaff line is sprinter/miler oriented, although her dam’s half brother Summer Hit placed third in the 2014 Oak Tree Handicap at nine furlongs. The Peter Miller trainee likes to lead the pack but can sit off the pace.

PARKOUR (7-2) finished a close third in last year’s Blue Norther Stakes. She won her 3-year-old debut in an allowance/optional claimer, beating  K P Dreamin in the process. By Carpe Diem out of a Grade 3-winning sprinter, Parkour has a sprinter/miler pedigree. She’s a need-the-lead type and is victorious only when she has a comfortable lead.

Legitimate Longshots

RED LARK (12-1) is the only filly proven at nine furlongs. After winning her maiden at the distance, she shortened up to a mile in the China Doll Stakes. The Patrick Gallagher trainee made a strong run from eleventh place but finished fifth, only 1 3/4-lengths behind the winner. 

CROUGHAVOUKE (8-1) bobbled at the start of the China Doll Stakes and was almost nine lengths behind in the early stages. She made a five-wide move in the stretch to miss by just 2 1/2-lengths. Umburto Rispoli is one of the better turf riders in California. 

K P DREAMIN (12-1) showed new life after a surface switch and drop from Grade 1 company. In her turf debut against allowance/optional claimers, The Jeff Mullens trainee made up thirteen lengths, to miss second place by a half-length. It was a good effort, and this daughter of Union Rags has plenty of turfy class in her distaff line; Her dam is a half-sister to the winner of the 2008 Pacific Classic (G1) and three-time record-setter Go Between. K P Dreamin should improve in her second turf start and love the extra distance. 

The rest of the field appears up against it.

SELECTIONS

I don’t expect a fast pace. There are two confirmed front-runners, and LAURA’S LIGHT and PARKOUR, although Laura’s Light can press the pace. K P DREAMIN can also press the pace or draft behind the top pair, along with LITTLE BIRD. The rest are one-run closers, and we could see an exciting finish if the front-runners falter.

#5 LAURA’S LIGHT (5-2)

#9 STELA STAR (2-1)

#7 RED LARK (12-1)

#2 K P DREAMIN (12-1)

Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Matt Winn Stakes (G3)

Will Traffic Snarl Maxfield in the Matt Winn?

By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

The revamped road to the rescheduled 146th Kentucky Derby gets underway this Saturday at Churchill Downs with the $150k Matt Winn Stakes. The one- mile and one-sixteenth Grade 3 race offers 50-20-10-5 points to the first four finishers towards a berth in the September 5th Kentucky Derby.
 
The morning line favorite and headliner in the twelve-horse field is Maxfield, owned by Godolphin and trained by Brenden Walsh. Maxfield won the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last fall and after shipping to Santa Anita for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, the colt came up lame and was unable to compete. 

In November, Maxfield underwent surgery for an ankle chip and then returned to the racetrack in mid-February to begin workouts. At that point, given the small time-frame allotted to be fully ready for an opportunity at the May ‘Run for the Roses’, the horse, in all probability, would have missed his chance. The postponement of the big race to the first Saturday in September gives his connections more time to prepare him properly.

Recent allowance winner, Pneumatic, from the Steve Asmussen barn and Unbridled Stakes runner-up, Attachment Rate, trained by Dale Romans, are 4-1 co-second choice on the morning line. 

Post time for the Matt Winn Stakes, Race 10 on the Churchill card, is slated for 5:44 EST. 

Here is the field from the rail out.

PP – Horse - Jockey/Trainer - ML 1 – Mystic Guide – Hernandez/Stidham – 15-1 - Most recently, this colt, also owned by Godolphin, was an impressive maiden winner at Fairgrounds, drawing away to win by five lengths, handling the stretch out from six-furlongs with aplomb. Off that performance, he now faces stakes company. Although it appears an ambitious placement, the colt has the pedigree and may be any kind of runner. 
    
2 – Pneumatic – Santana/Asmussen – 4-1 – Like the one above, this colt was also successful going sprint to route. Recorded back-to-back wins to start his career. Faces his toughest challenge to date here, but his manner of victory last race against a good allowance field indicates there may be more in the tank. Goes out for top connections. 

3 – Informative – Bisono/St.Lewis – 20-1 – Twice he has faced graded stakes company and finished far back both times. His one for nine record does not inspire any confidence. 
 
4 – Celtic Striker – Franco/Handal – 20-1 – Colt finished 42 lengths behind last time out in the G3 Gotham over two months ago. In his other stakes appearance, he was defeated by 15 lengths. He’s an outsider who is too slow and is sure to be a pace casualty. 

5 – Flap Jack – Bejarano/Sisterson – 20-1 – He has raced well on turf and synthetic, winning the Arlington Washington Futurity as a two-year-old on the latter surface and finishing second on the former. However, he has been unable to finish better than fifth in his dirt races, including two stakes appearances. 

6 – Ny Traffic – Lopez/Joseph – 10-1 – The change to the Joseph barn has done this horse a world of good. Started the year with a big allowance win, then put together back-to-back G2 stake place finishes - 3rd in the Risen Star and 2nd in the Louisiana Derby – both from outside posts. Gets a better draw here, has excellent early speed and could be the one to catch. 

7 – Necker Island – Gaffalione/Hough – 15-1 - This horse has been non-competitive in three straight races, but he has also suffered bad trips in each, so he really never had any true chance. Even if things go smoothly this time around, he’ll need to get faster to have any shot at hitting the board. That’s not likely to happen. 

8 – Crypto Cash – Lanerie/McPeek – 20-1 – Has run on all three surfaces and has performed well on dirt. Never was in the G1 Arkansas Derby where he finished sixth, beaten 10-lengths by Charlatan, but don’t hold that effort against him. Gets a class drop here, but needs to run faster to make any kind of impact. 

9 – Shake Some Action – Castellano/Cox – 12-1 – Was steadied early in the G2 Louisiana Derby then caught a wide trip, but he did manage to close from far back to finish sixth, beating half the field. Gets reunited with jockey Castellano, who won on this colt two starts back. 

10 – Maxfield – J.Ortiz/Walsh – 5-2 – The race headliner has not raced since early October, but he’s really picked up his training the last few weeks. He is one horse who should really benefit from the later date of the Kentucky Derby. Question here is: Will he be able to duplicate his excellent juvenile form heading into his first race as a sophomore? Obviously, this race is the launching point to Louisville, and although I don’t think he will be fully cranked, he could still get the job done. 

11 – Attachment Rate – Velazquez/Romans – 4-1 – Three races back he drew off to win his maiden by six lengths over a sloppy Gulfstream track. He was shipped north to Aqueduct and finished a solid third in the G3 Gotham, then returned to Florida where he was runner-up in the Unbridled Stakes last time out. He will have his work cut out for him from post 11, but his speed figures are competitive and he will be piloted by one of the best. 

12 – Major Fed – Rosario/Foley – 5-1 – His graded stakes races have been good, as he was second in the G2 Risen Star two back, and then closed from dead last in the 14-horse G2 Louisiana Derby to finish fourth. In both those efforts, he endured wide trips from better posts than he drew here, so it’s pretty likely another overland journey awaits him. It is tough to back him on the win end from out wide, but an on-the-board finish is possible. 


ANALYSIS  
Throughout the meet, the Churchill surface has been favorable to frontrunners at 8.5 furlongs. That bodes well for Ny Traffic who should be able to secure the lead and set the pace. 

The cutback in distance from his previous two races should certainly help. The other two speedsters, Celtic Strike and Necker Island, both have shown they also need the lead to run their best but don’t appear as fast early as my top pick. Without the lead, both runners have finished off the board multiple times. 

The class and speed displayed by Maxfield as a two-year-old towers over the field. Of course, the seven-month layoff is a concern, but the colt has trained splendidly and looks ready for his debut. In addition, trainer Walsh has a high win percentage (20%) with horses returning from extended layoffs of 90 days or more. Jockey Ortiz will need to work out a good trip from post 10, and then hope that his horse’s sustained running style can overcome the pace. 


My wagers  
$10 Win/Place Ny Traffic (Total $20)
$10 Exacta Box – Ny Traffic/Maxfield (Total $20) 
$1.00 Trifecta Wheel – 6,10 with 2,6,10 with 1,2,6,10,12 (Total $12) 

 Good luck, and as always, enjoy the race!!