Shooting for a Santa Anita Derby Upset
By: John DaSilva, ThoroCap
As the world continues to recover from the COVID-19
pandemic, the racing industry is piecing together a schedule to prepare horses
for the delayed Triple Crown. One of the
prep races that was postponed because of the pandemic was the Grade 1 Santa
Anita Derby. Originally scheduled to be run on April 4th, the race is now
scheduled to be run on Saturday at the same distance of a mile in the eighth
over the main track at Santa Anita.
The Santa Anita Derby remains a major prep for the Kentucky
Derby, with the top four finishers getting Kentucky Derby qualifying points on
a 100-40-20-10 basis. While it is not impossible, it is highly unlikely that
winner of the Santa Anita Derby would come back in two weeks to run the Grade 1
Belmont Stakes now cut back to a mile and an eighth. More than likely the
winner will run in the Grade 1 Haskell at Monmouth Park on July 18th.
Television coverage on the Santa Anita Derby will be on TVG
with Trackside Live from 6 pm to 7:30 pm. That broadcast will also be shown on
NBCSN. The Santa Anita Derby is race 8 with a scheduled post time of 7:09 pm
ET.
The 4/5 morning-line favorite for the Santa Anita Derby is Authentic.
The Bob Baffert trainee is undefeated and comes off an impressive gate to wire
victory in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes on March 7th. Authentic has always
been pointed to this race, whether it was to be run in April or now. But after
an injury to Nadal that was discovered after a workout last week, there was
some thought that Baffert calls an audible and point Authentic to the Belmont
Stakes. But the horse will remain in Santa Anita for this race. He will also
make his first start since majority ownership interest of Authentic was
purchased by Spendthrift Farm from Starlight Racing and Madaket Stables this
week. Regular rider Drayden Van Dyke retains the mount and they will break from
post 7.
The major challenger to Authentic should be Honor A.P. the John Shirreffs trainee ran second to
Authentic in the San Felipe. Sherriffs is known as a patient trainer and is willing
to use stakes races as preps to reach a goal, as he did in 2005 with Giacomo
when he ran in four stakes and lost them all prior to peaking and winning the
Kentucky Derby at odds of 50-1. Mike Smith, Sherriffs go-to jockey in stakes
races, has the call. Honor A.P. will break from post 6 and is the second choice
on the morning line at 9-5.
People looking for an upset can look at Shooters Shoot.
The Peter Eurton trainee makes his stakes debut after winning an
allowance/optional claimer at Oaklawn Park in April in his first start since
breaking his maiden. Eurton is another patient trainer that can get all horse
ready to peak and win a goal at a price. Shooters Shoot has shown improved
early speed since returning to racing going two turns. No doubt there will be a
camera pointed to Peter’s daughter Britney as well. A rising star in racing
coverage that works for TVG and NBC. She is not afraid to show her emotions in
a race that her father could win. Shooters Shoot is reunited with Abel Cedillo,
who as of this writing is second in the jockey standings at Santa Anita since
live racing returned from a two-month break with a record of 16 for 80. They
will be leaving from Post 3 and is 8-1 on the morning line.
Rushie makes his stakes debut for Mike McCarthy. He comes
off a victory as the favorite at Oaklawn Park on the Arkansas Derby
undercard. He should stalk the early
pace while getting a ground-saving trip Flavien Prat get the mount, who will
break from post 2 and is 8-1 on the morning line.
Anneau d’Or is an intriguing prospect. In the
division of the Arkansas Derby won by Charlatan, he lost all chance of winning
when he broke last. Prior to that he was bumped early and fell back as the
favorite in the Risen Star Stakes. Victor Espinoza picks up the mount in hopes
of getting him to leave the gate with no trouble. The Blaine Wright trainee
breaks from post 4 and is 15-1 on the morning line.
Azul Coast is the lesser-known of the Baffert Triple
Crown nominees. He does have a stakes win under his belt as he won the El
Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate in February. He was second to Authentic in the
Sham Stakes in his previous start. He makes his first start since winning the
El Camino Real Derby. Umberto Rispoli picks up the mount, who will break from
post 5 and is 15-1 on the morning line.
Friar’s Road completes the field. The Mike McCarthy
trainee is a maiden that finished second in the last two starts at a route. He is
just filler for the race to have it go with a field of seven. Geovanni Franco
has the mount at 20-1.
Analysis
Handicapping the race, Authentic is the one to beat.
Since stretching out to a route Authentic has led at every call in both starts
going two turns. But if Shooters Shoot, who has the advantage of a post
position inside Authentic, can break sharply and gain the lead going into the
clubhouse turn, it will be interesting to see how Authentic will adjust having
to stalk the pace.
The Play
Going with Shooters Shoot to upset the field so bet
$50 to win on him. Play a $20 Exacta part wheel Shooters Shoot over Authentic
and Honor A.P. with a reverse $5 exacta wheel.
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