Handicapper's Corner: Louisiana Derby (G1)

Guest Suite vs. Girvin in Louisiana Derby

By: The Turk

 

Girvin: Amanda Hodges Weir/Weir Photography

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk, a horse racing blog that has been blissfully bringing handicapping thoughts to a group of hardcore readers since 2008.  I'd like to thank the good people of The Thorofan for allowing me the opportunity today to handicap The Louisiana Derby, a 1 1/8 mile prep race for the Kentucky Derby. 

That good looking fella to the left is Girvin, winner of the Grade 2 Risen Star in late February at this racetrack, Fair Grounds.  To my long time readers, you'll know that The Turk doesn't really care at all about two year old racing, and I don't really spend much time thinking about these horses on the Derby trail, like the seven in this field of nine that are Triple Crown eligible.  

Am I a  curmudgeon or some anti-social horse racing purist?  Not at all, I'm just a guy who likes a Past Performance sheet to be filled with data, data from 10+ career starts after the age of 3.  I like history, I like video, I'm not that partial to talking about things that I have no clue about, like pedigree analysis.  I also don't care for horse racing journalism about the horses.  Again, nothing against the good writers, but I get sucked into the feel good stories, the underdog stories, the can't miss stories, and that bias throws me off as a handicapper.  This is my Sudoku, my game of Chess, and I try to keep the bias out and the data heavy. 

So, where do I start when looking at a Derby prep race?  The same place I always start, with the weather and the track condition and tote board.  Things can change rapidly with the weather here but it appears Friday and Saturday will be mostly rain free and for now we will assume a fast dirt route. 

Let's also take a look at last year's LA Derby G2 and Gun Runner.

And this year's Risen Star at 1 1/16 on fast dirt with Local Hero/3, Guest Suite/6, Sorry Erik/7 and Girvin/8 returning in this match.  

Trainer Joe Sharp and Brian Hernandez, up, look like they have prepared a very professional Girvin. I also liked Guest Suite who didn't have a great trip but was really coming late wide and I would expect more of the same from Local Hero, lots of speed, but can he carry it? Sorry Erik should be a non factor. 

 Let's get it on!

 

When I look at the scant past performance data on Girvin and Guest Suite (9 races between them: 5 wins, 1 place and 2 Shows) I see the Class of the race.  Monaco, a $1.3 Million dollar Uncle Mo purchase at the Spring 2016 sale is very lightly raced, works rather consistently, but hasn't done anything yet, while $0.5 Million dollar purchase Local Hero has enough speed that he will be a factor in his races. Money doesn't buy you happiness or race results, just promise.  It's still very early in the development of these race horses, but The Turk likes horses that have done it before, not just thinking about doing it.  

Girvin has been on the shelf and training at Fair Grounds since winning the Risen Star and gamely coming up just short in a 1 Mile Turf race at Fair Grounds in early February.  He appears to have been genetically born to rate.  I could ramble some more but just watch the Risen Star video above, you'll see a nice late turn afoot and a confident ride by Hernandez.  I've always liked the second/third tier Jock Hernandez, the 2004 apprentice jockey of the year.  Maybe his career goes a bit more high profile if he doesn't lose the Rachel Alexandra mount to Calvin Borel. 

Being contrarian in nature, I like Guest Suite in the win spot.  The gelded son of Turk favorite Quality Road, he trains fast, his Beyer's are increasing, and with the extra distance he may be able to collar Girvin. 

 Patch, a very lightly raced Calumet Farms runner for Todd Pletcher, comes in off a fast one turn affair.  Local Hero, a fast Hard Spun/Liam's Dream creation, will be near the front and the only real question for me is how far does he carry and can he hold on for a minor prize. 

Rounding out my contenders for Show and Exotic are Senior Investment and Hollywood Handsome. Senior Investment is a bit slow but rating really well and will be coming late.  Minor prize possible.  Hollywood Handsome has been training very sharply at Fair Grounds and also has shown a late turn of foot. 

I'm not sure what I'm going to do with this yet.  I think I'll be looking at something like: 

a $2 Trifecta of 6/8 OVER 6/8 OVER 1/3/4/2 would cost $16. 

Whatever you do, have fun with it and bet responsibly. 

Turk out!

Handicapper's Corner: Dubai World Cup (G1)

Is Dubai World Cup the Pinnacle of Arrogate's Career?

By: John Caro, S. FL ThoroFan Member

DUBAI WORLD CUP – Meydan - 1 and ¼ Miles - $10M

Dubai is the stage for the world’s best racing with all the major players in the world at one time in a variety of races with this race as the finale.

I have studied all the tea leaves, the Brisnet, Timeform, the national and international press, watched videos till my eyes got tired, and consulted with anyone who knows anything about racing and there is no doubt about the favorite and who will win, #9-Arrogate.  I figured I wouldn’t bother with a supreme being consult as I’m sure they have more pressing matters. I have sent a message for all the contestants to be safe for the race.

Since his lone defeat as a maiden, Arrogate has progressed to the pinnacle of racing, and for those who missed his last race, I’m sorry for you. He is every bit as advertised and names like Secretariat, Cigar, and Rachel Alexandra all come to mind when I watch him run. I don’t doubt that there are others in the field for today’s race that are every bit as competitive at this track at this level of competition, but I don’t find one that I would put ahead of Arrogate. Ridden by “Big Money Mike,” to quote Mr. Baffert, Arrogate is tactical with his speed, has a good engine, and plenty in the tank going home.

 

If there is anyone out there that has a different winner, please raise your hand and be heard.

I love to watch great horses run and win but my betting is based on ROI and some profits from the wagers. I approached this as if Arrogate was not running today to determine who I would pick as my contenders, and to sort out who I think can reasonably win, place and show. Below are my picks to contend in order of my preference.

#1 Apollo Kentucky – rested, good going in his last left handed run, very nice record.

#12 Hoppertunity – rested, Baffert, Prat, great record.

#13 Special Fighter – This is his home track, excellent record at the distance.

And a tie; #2 Long River – based on his last outing and style and #14 Mubtaahij – stalwart contender, back at home, good last time out.

Wagers – I will not play Arrogate to win other than cheering him to the finish.

$ 7 Trifecta - 9 with 1, 12 with 1, 12, 13, 2, 14

If you’re feeling good about it and have $$$ to spend you could play a Superfecta – 9 with 1, 12, 13, with 1, 12, 13, 2, 14 with 1, 12, 13, 2, 14 (or hit all)

There are two other races on the card with possible longshots that have my interest.

Race 1 - #10 Etijaah – rested, cutting back to a mile, a very smooth mover, the #1 international jockey is aboard, Crowley

Race 6 - #11 St. Joe Bay – fast, oh, did I mention he is fast. Put him on top of the #1, 14, & 7 might be a pretty good day.

 

Handicapper's Corner: Rebel Stakes (G2)

Rebel Stakes Showdown: American vs. Royal

By: Laurie Ross, Iron Maidens Thoroughbreds

Over the last sixteen years, the Rebel Stakes has produced a roll call of elite stars that figure prominently in the Triple Crown events.Fans at Oaklawn have seen the likes of American Pharoah, Smarty Jones, Curlin, Afleet Alex, Lookin at Lucky, Oxbow and Creator compete in the 1 1/16 mile Grade 2 event. Steppenwolfer and Ride on Curlin, placed in the Rebel, plus the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, respectively. 

A field of eleven 2017 Kentucky Derby hopefuls are primed to contest the Rebel Stakes. The winner will earn 50 points towards a reservation in the Derby starting gate.

Oh say, can you see…

We all know that Bob Baffert ships his best Derby hopefuls to Oaklawn. Since Baffert started this practice, he’s won six of the last seven editions of the Rebel. The one time his horse didn’t win, he placed third. 

This year, Baffert’s hopes lie with American Anthem (Bodemeister - Indy's Windy, by A.P. Indy). Is American Anthem good enough to give Baffert his fourth consecutive Rebel Stakes trophy? As much as I like this horse, I’ll say not this time.

In January, American Anthem gave G1 Stakes hero Gormley all he could handle in the Sham Stakes. Gormley’s experience earned him the victory by a short nose.  The Grade 3 contest was essentially a one mile match race over an uncharacteristically muddy track at Santa Anita. In in the San Felipe Stakes last week, Gormely could manage no better than a tired, distant fourth place against the tragically brilliant Mastery. 

Warning signs for the Rebel favorite? I wonder how much the fight with Gormley took out of American Anthem. 

Additionally, American Anthem is making his third career start in the Rebel. His speed figure (Bris) jumped eight points from his maiden win to the Sham Stakes. Yes, American Anthem has two sharp works, but his final breeze with Mor Spirit was just so-so, and he was under pressure to stay with Mor Spirit past the wire. 

I love American Anthem’s pedigree, but his late pace speed figures hit a sour note and there are too many warning signs that he may regress. Read American Anthem’s pedigree profile.

Eeny Meeny Miny…

Royal Mo (Uncle Mo - Royal Irish Lass, by Saint Ballado) ruled his competition in the RB Lewis Stakes (G3) in February, beating Grade 1 placed Irap by a widening 3 ½ lengths. There’s a lot of speed in the Rebel. So, will Victor Espinoza employ the same tactics in the Rebel against cheap speed or try to rate? Royal Mo gets better with each start and he could be the one to beat.

Untrapped (Trappe Shot - Exit Three, by Giant's Causeway) was second in the LeComte and Risen Star at the Fair Grounds. He’s coming back in three weeks in an effort to gain more qualifying points for the Derby. His speed figures have improved with each start and he owns the highest late pace speed figure in the field.

Petrov (Flatter - Saracina, by Bertrando) was beaten like a roan headed stepchild, first by Uncontested in the Smarty Jones and then by One Liner in the Southwest. Ron Moquett’s charge likes to stalk the pace, but is developing a bad case of second-itis.  Petrov’s speed figures are improving with every start and he tries hard.

Speed Traps

Uncontested and Malagacy have speed to spare and may be winging it on the front end. If they hook up in a speed duel, it could run the rest into the ground and set the Rebel up for a one run closer.

Instigators

Silver Bullion (Pioneerof the Nile - Love Buzz, by Silver Charm) regressed slightly in his first start against winners last time out, and Silver Bullion hasn’t shown the speed to be competitive here. 

Appalachian Gem (Gemologist - Briar Hill Dixie, by Dixieland Band) was a determined winner in his first try around two turns, and he has the pedigree to improve with maturity and some distance. Not much class in Appalachian Gem’s first two generations, but his third dam won the Marion Van Berg Memorial Hcp. Guess who trains Appalachian Gem? Jack Van Burg. And when was the last time you saw Gary Stevens on a 30-1 shot? Call me nostalgic, but I’m rootin’ for the old timers.

Bringing up the rear..

Lookin At Lee (Lookin At Lucky - Langara Lass, by Langfuhr) is one of those horses who make a furious rush from the back of the pack, but unlike Zenyatta or Victory Gallop, Lee never gets there in time. Maybe Ricardo Santana, Jr. needs to set the alarm clock for earlier in the race.

Sonneteer (Midnight Lute - Ours, by Half Ours) is a career maiden. But don’t be so quick to dismiss him. Sonneteer owns the second highest late pace speed figure in the field and his one-run style plays against him on the California tracks. Could he be a live longshot or is he this year’s Laoban?

Silver Dust (Tapit - Filare l'Oro, by Hard Spun) ate a lot of dust in the Southwest. He spent most of his time in traffic and passed tired horses to get a minor award a dozen lengths behind One Liner. Maybe he shook some of the dust off in his first 3YO start, but I think he’ll run into some dust busters here. He could step up for a minor award with an easier trip. Silver Dust’s dam won the 1 1/8 mile Virginia Oaks over the lawn and she’s a half-sister to the hard-knocking veteran handicap horse Gouldings Green.  Perhaps a surface change will bring out the shine for Silver Dust.

Final Thoughts

In the last ten editions of the Rebel Stakes, four winners led the field on a merry chase. Two pressed the pace, while three sat mid-pack early before making their moves. Only one was a closer.

The Play:

$2 Super Box: #10, #7 #4, #5 

$2 Super Box: #10, #11 #4, #5 

$2 Super Box: #7, #10, #6, #11 

 

Handicapper's Corner: Santa Margarita Stakes (G1)

Looking for a Show Stealer in Santa Margarita Stakes

By: Dylan Jarmulowicz, Wire-Players.com

 

Santa Margarita Stakes

Santa Anita Race 9 – Grade I 1 1/8 Mile - Post Time – 7:30pm (Eastern)

Advance Weather: Sunny, 70s

This year’s edition of the Santa Margarita Invitational Stakes may appear to be a two horse race looking quickly and at the morning line odds. Horse racing is never that simple and we could have a show stealer!

Let’s start with the two favorites #3 FINEST CITY (8/5) and #2 VALE DORI (9/5). 

They are both quick horses and will likely duel for the lead. FINEST CITY is a nice horse but she has so many breaks in her running lines its hard to be confident. She has raced just three times in the last seven months and while I’m a fan of the five and six furlong workouts this is a tough spot to make a return to the races. She may need a race to get back to prime form. 

VALE DORI has two very consistent traits, gunning to the lead and being heavily bet. She has won her last four races while being odds on every time and she will likely be heavily bet again in this spot. 

There is other speed in this race including FINEST CITY and #6 PERFECT PIC (5-1) so it may not be as easy at the previous races and at a short price it is worth trying to find some value.

That leads to my top play #4 SHOW STEALER (6-1). She is trained by Art Sherman and will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux for the first time. She has that stalker running style that is so perfect for these mile plus races. The only thing is she does not exactly like to win, she might have a case of second-itus but at a square price and with race dynamics in her favor she’s worth taking a shot on.

My Plays:

Win:  #4

Exacta: 4/2,3,6

Trifecta: 4/2,3,6/2,3,6

Good Luck!