Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Starlet Stakes (G2)

 Baffert Fillies ready for their close up

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

Los Alamitos' opening weekend feature is the $200,000 Grade 2 Starlet Stakes for juvenile fillies. The 1 1/16 mile contest is billed as race nine, the card’s finale, with a  4:30 PM PT post time. The 2024 Kentucky Oaks qualifier offers a range of 10-5-3- 2-1 points.

The last filly to complete the Starlet/Oaks double was Able Tasman (2016) who would earn the 2017 3-year-old Champion Filly award. Take Charge Brandi (2014) captured the Starlet on her way to being crowned Champion 2-Year-Old Filly.

This year, Bob Baffert is in an excellent position to earn his seventh straight victory in the Starlet since his charges account for one-third of the six-horse field.

 

Nothing Like You (8-5)  is the most experienced filly in the Starlet after her determined victory in the listed Desi Arnez Stakes. Her Brisnet speed ratings are rising and she has the race’s highest late-pace figure of 100. Malibu Moon’s daughter is a half to the stakes-winning miler South of France, and their dam is the multiple stakes winner Miss Derek. Nothing Like You is a rangy, long-striding filly. Her morning works are moderate and quicker than her stablemate, Grazia.

Chatalas (2-1) has a distinct win/lose cycle. She captured the Chandelier (G2) in her second to last start by 1 ½ lengths but was body slammed at the start of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and finished a non-threatening ninth. Gun Runner’s daughter, out of a winning Indian Charlie mare, is the most accomplished runner in three generations of her female family. If the win/lose cycle continues, Chatalas could play the spoiler. Her Chandelier speed rating of 92 is the highest in the Starlet field, and her 90 late-pace figure is second only to Nothing Like You.

Grazia (5-2) is considered the weaker half of the Baffert entries with only one start under her girth. She graduated at first asking over four rivals. Two placed next out. Baffert’s charge earned an average 85 speed rating and an 81 late pace figure. Uncle Mo’s daughter is half to Grade 3 placed turf sprinter Union Gables. Their dam is a multiple graded placed sprinter. The distaff line is comprised of blacktype earing sprinter/milers. Last year, Baffert’s Faiza won the Starlet in her second start, so don’t count Grazia out.

Flynn's Chance (8-1) improved in her second start to place second to Great Forty Eight. Flynn’s Chance got a little leg weary in the final strides and finished third, bested 1 ¾ lengths. By Medaglia d'Oro, Flynn’s Chance is a full sister to Las Virgenes (G3) heroine Moonlight d’Oro and a half to Grade 2-placed juvenile Olive Branch. Their dam is a full sister to Grade 2 winner Wilburn, and 2017 Champion Filly and Starlet winner Able Tasman is a distant relative. Richard Mandella generally places his charges where they have a chance to pick up a check. Flynn’s Chance should progress in her second start off the layoff.

Great Forty Eight (8-1) improved in every start until she found the winner’s circle in her fourth outing. She saw the tail-end of Nothing Like You in two previous starts, including a 6 ½ length dusting in Great Forty Eight’s second-to-last start. Constitution’s daughter is out of an Exchange Rate mare. Her dam is half to Grade 2 winner Ruby’s Reception, and distant relatives include Grade 1 heroine Union Strike and the hardy graded stakes winner Handsome Mike. Great Forty Eight’s post-race works are faster than before her maiden win, always a good sign.

Pacific Rose (15-1) is searching for a herd of fillies to conquer. The maiden’s best effort was in the 1 1/16 mile Chandelier (G2), where she tailgated the early pace while being hard-held. She made a mild bid in the stretch and made up a little ground but finished 3 ½ lengths behind the winner, Chatalas. Not This Time’s daughter is out of a Bernardini mare. Her second and third dams own blacktype. 2019 Champion Sprinter Mitole and the always-game stakes veteran Hot Rod Charlie are distant relatives. Pacific Rose may improve with distance and appears one-paced.

 

Analysis

Bob Baffert got his picture taken in the Starlet winner’s circle seven of the last twelve years, including the last six editions.

Eight of twelve Starlet heroines captured their previous race, while the rest placed second or third. Only four didn’t compete in a stakes. When the track switched back to dirt seven years ago, pacesetters/pressers won most of the races, and only two favorites didn’t finish in the top two spots.

The Desi Arnez stakes is a key prep; half of the last eight winners used it as a springboard to Starlet victory.

Baffert has an excellent shot to add a seventh straight Starlet victory to his resume with Nothing Like You. She won the Desi Arnez, is the most experienced in the field, and owns the highest late-pace figure.

If Nothing Like You stubs a hoof, Chaltas could visit the winner’s circle.

Grazia is a logical pick to complete the trio, but I’ll take a shot with Flynn’s Chance. She’s well-bred and should improve in her second start off the layoff.

Most of these fillies are pacesetters or pressers, except for Pacific Rose. She has a longshot chance to hit the board if they go fast early.

1. Nothing Like You (8-5)

5. Chatalas (2-1)

3. Flynn’s Chance (8-1)

Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Cigar Mile (G2)

 Four to watch in the Grade 2 Cigar Mile

By: Robert Marks (@theyreinthegate)

With the Breeders’ Cup behind us we turn to the colder location of Queens NY at Aqueduct Racetrack for the historic Cigar Mile. It is no longer a Grade 1 race, now being run as a Grade 2 with a $500,000 pot.

However, we do have a nice big field for this year’s running. This race is named after Hall of Famer Cigar, who won 16 consecutive races.  

  

 

The Cigar Mile will go off as Race 10 on 12/2/23 at 4:12 pm Eastern time. 

Here is a look at the 12-horse field.

 

The first thing that pops out to me is the nice big field which will produce plenty of betting opportunities.  These are races where you can hit with a higher-odds horse.  Here is who we will look at:

Senor Buscador (7-2) for Trainer Todd Fincher is interesting. He will be cutting back in distance, having run his last 7 races over 1 mile including the 1 ¼ Breeders’ Cup Classic where he finished 7th.  This 5-year-old has run at the mile distance 3 times coming in 1st twice.  He will be ridden by Junior Alvarado, who gets on board for the 1st time. Senor Buscador had a bullet workout at Belmont where he is currently stalled, back on 11/25/23.  Certainly has the speed to win this race and is your likely post-time favorite.

Hoist the Gold (8-1) will be piloted by 3-time Cigar Mile Winner Johnny Velazquez. Seems most comfortable as a sprinter as he has mostly run at 6 and 7 furlongs. He has run a mile twice, finishing out of the money both times. Johnny V seems very confident and apparently suggested to Trainer Dallas Stewart that they run in the Cigar Mile. Will most likely be the early speed. Johnny knows the course, the race, and the horse, a good ingredient for a placing and an overlay if his odds stay at 8-1.

Dr. Ardito at 8-1 is one of 3 horses entered in the Cigar trained by Chad Brown. The mile is Dr. Ardito’s preferred distance where he has 5 wins out of 8 starts. He will have Manny Franco on board, also no stranger to Aqueduct. He will be the late pace in this race. You may want to watch the weather before betting, as it might rain. His late-running style is more suitable to a dry track. He is also NY-based and has ridden at Aqueduct 7 times with 5 winds.  favorite with Flavien Prat on board and Chad Brown the trainer. When at his best, this is probably the fastest horse in the field. He is always in the money but does have what I call “seconditis” a term I use for horses who are always in the money but just don’t seem to like winning. This horse is just short of 2 million in earnings but yet has only 2 lifetime wins.  Pencil this horse in for yet another 2nd place finish.

Looking at longshots, you might want to consider High Oak at 20-1, trained by Bill Mott. He was a late nomination to this race. Bill Mott is a master at placing horses where they belong, and the late nomination suggests he saw something in High Oak to run him in this race. On the Derby Trail in 2022 until an awful fall in the Fountain of Youth, he has run well lately, coming off a 2nd place finish in the Bold Ruler over the Aqueduct track. Would not be shocked if he gets a piece.

With a big field, we always like to bet the Trifecta, hoping to get a longshot in the mix with the likely favorite Senor Buscador. It’s these types of races where a Trifecta payoff can be highly profitable.

Bets: $100 dollar Budget

$50-win Senor Buscador

$2Trifecta Box: Senor Buscador, Hoist the Gold, Dr. Ardito, High Oak (total bet $48)

$2 place: High Oak

Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Clark Stakes (G2)

Looking for an edge in the Clark Stakes

By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

 

Greetings folks! Our ThoroFan race of the week is the $600,000 Clark Stakes. The traditional day after Thanksgiving feature is a Grade 2 event for three-year-olds and up going nine furlongs on the dirt under the legendary Twin Spires of Churchill Downs with a post time scheduled for 5:48 pm.

The Clark is among the oldest races in the United States, having first been run in 1875, the year Churchill Downs opened and is named in honor of Colonel M. Lewis Clark, founder of the Louisville Jockey Club which built the racetrack. Since its inception, the Clark has been run at various distances, but its current 1 1/8-miles has remained constant since 1955.

A field of 10 will enter the starting gate with four of the runners being graded stakes winners, but none having won above the G3 level. A few of the horses have competed in G1 and G2 company and have performed well. Do those races against better possibly give them the edge? Let’s have a look at the lineup from the rail out.

PP – Horse – Jockey/Trainer – ML

1 - Straight Arrow – Florent Geroux/Michael Dini – 8/1 -Ships in off a two-race winning streak, albeit against New York state-bred runners. Both of those victories came in the mud, so he certainly would appreciate an off-track. He should get a nice ground saving journey having drawn the rail. The switch to Geroux is a big plus, but overall, it probably won’t be enough as this is a big step up.

2 - First Mission – Luis Saez/Brad Cox - 3/1 - The only blemish (if you want to call it that) on this lightly-raced sophomore son of Street Sense’s record was his second-place finish in his maiden debut. Since then, he has reeled off three straight including the G3 Lexington two back with a speed figure good enough to win this. He is owned by Godolphin Stables who won this race the last two years with Maxfield (2021) and Proxy (2022). Has worked well in preparation for this.

3 - Il Miracolo – Tyler Gafflione/Antonio Sano – 4/1 - Another three-year-old trying older horses. He was based in Florida during the winter for the Kentucky Derby trail, but that didn’t work out well as he couldn’t compete against the likes of Forte and Mage. He’s been well traveled the second half of 2023 and three back at Parx he scored a big win in the G3 Smarty Jones Stakes, then was beaten a head in G2 Fayette last time out.

4 - Gasoline – Flavien Prat/Todd Pletcher – 5/1 - A winner of three of his last four, including his last two over this surface, so maybe he’s found a home here. This will be his first try in graded stakes after successfully going through his allowance conditions. His last was a huge win with a pretty good speed figure that puts him right there. He’s moving up in class, but makes his third start off a layoff, a category trainer Pletcher excels with.

5 - Trademark – Fernando De La Cruz/Victoria Oliver – 6/1 - This four-year old has made the most starts in the field and two back he was beaten a head in the G2 Lukas Classic after getting to the lead in the Churchill Downs stretch., earning a speed figure that could get his picture taken if he can repeat it. However, his form went south last time out with his seventh-place finish in the Fayette, so he will need to find a way to rebound big time to compete here.

6 – Film Star – Jose Lezcano/Linda Rice – 5/1 - Has a pretty good record at this distance with a pair of wins and second-place finishes. He was runner-up in the G2 Woodward Stakes behind Zandon and last start he was beaten less than two lengths in the G2 Forty Niner Stakes. Ships in for the always dangerous Linda Rice, so the horse must be respected from that angle as Rice has a high win rate (23%) with shippers.

7 - Giant Game – Martin Garcia/Dale Romans – 12/1 - Another G3 winner, but that win in the Cornhusker in July was the last time he got his picture taken, He did earn the highest speed figure in the field from that win, but that came when he was loose on an uncontested lead, something that probably he won’t get here with other speed present. He failed to beat a weaker field last race, so this is a tough task to secure a win against this group.

8 - Happy American – Declan Cannon/Neil Pessin – 20/1 - This guy has competed in nothing but graded stakes his last eight races and to his credit he managed a third place showing in the G1 Stephen Foster back in July. He was given a break following that race, but his two starts following the rest have been sub-par. He will need major improvement to beat this field.

9 - Strange Raider – Brian Hernandez/Cherie Devaux – 12/1 - Enters off a sixth-place finish against Cody’s Wish in the G1 BC Dirt Mile. He ran very well in the G3 Ack Ack back in September where he finished second, beaten a length here at Churchill. Overall, his speed figures pale in comparison when matched against others and that alone makes me think he’s not capable of breaking through to win this.

10 - Blue Devil – Javier Castellano/Jeff Hiles – 10/1 - Has been in excellent form since the beginning of June, having not missed a top three finish in five outings, including representing himself very well in the Lukas Classic where he finished third, beaten just a length. He’s been off for nearly two months but has performed well in the past returning from a layoff, so he’s capable in this spot. Trainer Hiles is winless at this meet and has never won a graded stake, but the switch to Castellano is a positive and may be what the horse needs to get it done.

 

ANALYSIS

The makeup of this field indicates there is plenty of early foot which could accelerate the pace up front, favoring runners from behind. With that said, I’ve settled on a pair of horses that will be tracking behind the leaders and one of them should prevail.

First Mission defeated older allowance runners last race, showing patience and perseverance when getting blocked in the upper stretch and he beat a quality field two back in the Lexington Stakes. He’s lightly raced and has banked three wins in a row. The talent is there, and he has the most upside.

Il Miracolo was only beaten a head in his first try against his elders last out in the Fayette. His speed figure from that effort and the figure from his third-place finish at Parx in the G1 Pa Derby are solid. He’s in very good form right now and wouldn’t take much improvement from his last two races to come out on top.

WAGER

Between the two choices, Il Miracolo gets the call. The Antonio Sano runner will be more attractive odds opposed to First Mission, who will likely be the betting choice. Maybe too low for my liking. However, I will put both horses together in an exacta.

Win and Place on Il Miracolo

Exacta Box: Il Miracolo/First Mission

For the tri’s and/or supers, readers can add in whoever they feel comfortable with.

For the record, I will be using Blue Devil to fill out my trifecta.

Good luck and as always, enjoy the race!!