Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Hill Prince Stakes (G2)

Longshot could pay royal price in Hill Prince Stakes

By: Stuart Marc deVoe, ThoroFan Handicapper

It’s been tough sledding for turf runners in NY this year.  One would think with all the rain in Saratoga this summer followed by similar precipitation once racing moved back to the Metro area that Mother Nature only likes dirt racing.   

Well, NYRA will take another shot to run some quality races on the green and may get the chance on Saturday with the G2 Hill Prince for straight 3yo going 1 1/8^th miles.  The forecast looks to be mostly dry.  Perhaps Mother Nature is focused elsewhere and we can get down to the business at hand. 

Chad sends out three entries.  Shug has got one in that looks like he could be any kind.  There are a few others that look like they are starting to put things together.  Overall, it is an interesting puzzle.  Here is the field:

 

 

1.    Freedom Trail (J. Ortiz/J. Terranova) 8-1 – A two-time winner on this course to start his career, ran the best race of his life in his last against older allowance foes.  Earlier this year he dabbled at the graded level finishing mid pack.  He has some late foot but will need to really step up his game to contend.

2.   Laurel Valley (D. Davis/M. Maker) 30-1 –  Has a NY bred maiden win to his credit.  Looks out classed here

3.   Integration (K. Carmouche/C. McGaughey) Even -  Shug rarely sends out maiden winners back in graded stakes but that is exactly what he did with this son of Quality Road.  He was rewarded with a Virginia Derby triumph in impressive fashion.  Integration ran down a G1 winner in Program Trading in that event and looked to do it rather easily.  This race goes through him.  He has a speed figure edge and Shug generally improves his horses with each start.

4.   Equitize (GB) (I. Ortiz Jr./C. Brown) 5-1 –  The 1^st of Chad Brown’s entrants.  He has only one start – a Tampa maiden win back in March.  He hinted at talent in that event although was green.  One might think he is entered as a filler but Mr. Brown is a master at placing his horses.  Make no mistake, he belongs if Chad thinks he belongs.   

5.   Faraday (JJ. Castellano/C. Brown) 10-1 – The 2^nd Brown entrant owns a Saratoga maiden win and a Kentucky Downs allowance victory both at longer distances.  He benefited in both his wins closing into a strong pace, according to TimeformUS.  I’m not sure he will get that here.

6.   Toofareastiswest (J. Rosario/M. Trombetta) 20-1 – Toofareastiswest has 5 in the money finishes in 6 tries.  He also finished behind today’s rival in Faraday back in July but since he has 2 victories with one at Laurel.  However, he is interesting to me.  One of his losses was to Runaway Storm who won the G3 Bryan Station at Keenland last month, so he has some quality.  His loss to Faraday was when he was hopelessly wide the entire trip.  He put it together in his last 2 and is improving at a price.

7.   Quality Chic (I. Castillo/D. Jacobson) 15-1 – He has 1 turf start to his name – a CD maiden race when he was in Kenny McPeek’s barn.  His maiden win was in an off the turfer at AQU.  I wonder if his current trainer is hoping Mother Nature moves this to the main track.

8.   I’m Very Busy (M. Franco/C. Brown) 6-1 – The last of Chad’s entries hinted at ability last year being sent off at 6to1 in the Breeder’s Cup Juvi Turf.  He ran 10^th of 14 beaten less than 4 lengths.  He looks to be rounding back to form after an authoritative win in his last attending a sharp pace and separating from his foes.  Again, Chad doesn’t enter them without a chance. 

9.   Classic Catch (J. Alvarado/T. Pletcher) 8-1 – Been trying to get on the green but has been rained off in his last 2.  He’s run some fast figures on dirt and if that transfers to the turf, he may be dangerous.  That said, he did regress off his race 2 back.  I don’t like backing horses that aren’t moving forward.

10.MTO Crupi (K. Carmouche/T. Pletcher) 9/5 - If it is moved to the main, he is a winner.

 

ANALYSIS

If you are a speed figure person, Integration has the edge.  Add the fact that he ran down a G1 winner in Program Trading who had a better trip and the jump on him, he passes the eye test as well. 

Of the Chads, I suppose none of the three would surprise me as each can win.  Equitize (GB) is the most interesting because he has proven the least but is still entered.  I guess I’d take I’m Very Busy over Faraday because of the back class and maybe he didn’t enjoy the Spa. 

Of the others, Toofareastiswest is very intriguing.  I think he will be overlooked but has just as much upside as the others and he is 20-1 on the morning line.  Visually, he has a ton of upside.  His speed figures are a bit lighter than I’d like but he is developing and that’s how you get the long odds.

I think the exacta of Integration with any of the Chads will be over bet but certainly with Equitize (GB). 

 

THE BET: Based on $100 budget.

$30 win 6

$15 exacta box 3,6

$10 exacta box 4,6

$20 exacta 3 with 6

Good Luck!

 

 

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Red Smith Handicap (G2)

  Three contenders stand out in the        Red Smith Handicap

By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper

The $300,000 Grade 2 Red Smith Handicap drew twelve entries, along with four AE's  is a lot to digest. Especially when almost all have some close figures, given the surface and distance. Of the scheduled runners, three stick out and are likely winners of this challenging 1 3/8 mile trek on the turf.

 

I'll talk about my top three and then expand for exotic plays.

8. Soldier Rising – Clement/Ortiz, JL – This one has been on a streak of second-place finishes in Grade I races since May, with the exception of the Grade II Bowling Green two back at Saratoga. Got badly bumped coming to the stretch turn and was done from there. The other Grade I races, when you lose to horses like Red Knight, Up to the Mark, Bolshoi Ballet, and War Like Goddess, maybe you're strong enough to win here. He's been ITM 16 of his 20 races with $1.2 in the bank. Win contender and must use for any exotics.

6. Nineeleventurbo – Drysdale/Rosario – His pace tracking running style for this race may be ideal as we have a couple of horses (#1 Lost Ark & #3 Main Event) who love the lead. It's true that he has not been in the big ranks, but then, he doesn't know that. He does know that he finished second to Golden Phoenix in the Del Mar Handicap going this distance. I think Drysdale is on the right track and certainly picked well for his jockey. The 'old school' 6 furlong work is also something I like to see going this distance. Win contender? Possibly, but it's an Exacta play for sure.

7. Marwad – Moubarak/Castellano  - He's been back on the work tab since September after a five-month break. Lightly raced, and his last out after the break was not terrible. He should improve, and he has Castellano up for the mount, and they won at Gulfstream, going the distance and closing pace of 112. Win contender? Might surprise at a price. Must play in any exotics.

Others have potential to be ITM and should be played in exotics.

2. So High – came in one length back of Soldier Rising in the Turf Classic at BAQ. Lead most of the way going 1 and 1/2.

3. Main Event  - Front runner who's never gone this far. Won last out in front running style and his first win for the year.

4. Cross Boarder – Won last out going 1 and 1/2 winning a black type by 2 and 1/2. Older horse who has made his mark with $1.3 to show for his efforts.

5. Limited Liability  - Third by one in the Sycamore at Keeneland last out. Likes to run mid-pack and seems to have trouble closing the deal.

10. Verstappen  - If he comes back to his form July when he lost to Channel Maker in the Sycamore, he may be a threat to get second.

AE horses

13. Classic Catch appears to be the only one who has speed to keep up with the main entries and will have to work out a trip.

Playing the Red Smith

Several of these have seen each other in action. It should be quite a race, and I believe that a horse who can track the leaders and make the distance will be the winner.

I'm going to take the new shooter 6 long across the board, $20 WPS.

A $1 Exacta 6 with All and a $1 Trifecta 8,7,4,10 with 6 with 8,7,4,10.

Good Luck.

Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Breeders' Cup Classic

2023 Breeders' Cup Classic wide-open 

 

The $6 million Breeder’s Cup Classic (G1) is the culmination of a long, exciting year of racing.

This year’s Classic, held for a record 13^th time at Santa Anita, attracted an accomplished field of 12 older horses, after the scratch of Belmont and Travers Stakes hero Arcangelo.

Carded as race 9, post time for the 1 1/4-mile Classic is 6:40 PM EST Saturday. The main track should be fast.

The collective minds of the ThoroFan Handicappers offer our choices for first through third place and our best longshot bombs.

Good Luck to everyone!

 

HANDICAPPER	FIRST	SECOND	THIRD	LONGSHOT
Michael Amo	Proxy	White Abarrio	Ushba Tesora	Senor Buscador
John Caro	Proxy	White Abarrio	Saudi Crown	Bright Future
Nick Costa	Ushba Tesora	Zandon	White Abarrio	Clapton
Robert Marks	Ushba Tesora	Arabian Knight	Bright Future	Zandon
Rowan Ward	Bright Future	Zandon	White Abarrio	Proxy
Laurie Ross	Ushba Tesora	Arabian Knight	Zandon	Proxy