Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2)

Fountain of Youth Throw-Down

By: Laurie Ross, ThoroCap

On February 29, a full field of twelve 3-year-old colts and geldings will contest the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2), which is the second of three legs of the Florida prep races for the 2020 Kentucky Derby.  The Derby qualifier awards a points scale of 50-20-10-5 to the top four finishers.  

The race may shape up as a throw-down between the much-hyped Iroquois (G3) winner Dennis’ Moment and the gritty underdog Chance It, winner of the Mucho Macho Man in his last start. There are other worthy contenders who could surprise.

Let’s take a look at the field.

The Favorites

DENNIS' MOMENT was considered the greatest thing since sliced bread right up until the starting gate opened in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Dennis faceplanted, and struggled all the way around the track. After staggering across the finish line, Dennis’ Moment was an exhausted horse. The Romans trainee gets a class check. Yes, he won the Iroquois (G3), but it was a weak race. Runner-up Scabbard has been off the board in three stakes.  Worried about the layoff? Don’t be, Romans stole the 2018 Fountain of Youth with the front-running Promises Fulfilled.

CHANCE IT had everything going for him. He beat up on state-breds, turned back As Seen on TV in the Mucho Macho Man, and bested Sole Volante, the future winner of the Sam F. Davis. Then Chance It was handed the kiss of death when he drew the far outside post. He doesn’t need the lead, but unless Gaffalione can get Chance It closer to the rail, they’ll be wide the entire way.

Spoiler Alert

AS SEEN ON TV checks all the boxes as the previous Fountain of Youth winners. Second off a layoff? Check. In the money in his last start? Check. Pace pressing style? Check. He has the pedigree and class to easily handle these.

ETE INDIEN doesn’t need the lead to win, but he’s hampered by post eleven. Second to Tiz the Law in the Holy Bull, Ete Indien finished 11 1/2-lengths ahead of the rest of the field. The Biancone trainee will have to prove how good he is from post 11.

SHOTSKI It’s a good thing that he can handle the distance. The pacesetter will use energy early to get to the front. This is his second start off a layoff, and he’s a Grade 2 winner. Looks good, right? Not so fast. Unless he’s within a length of the lead, he doesn’t win.

Exotic Plays

CANDY TYCOON improved dramatically in his first try around two turns. He has speed on the rail, always dangerous. The knock? His post-race works are slightly slower than pre-race. Also, no last-out maiden winner has captured the Fountain of Youth in over a decade. Manny Franco will send the Pletcher trainee to the lead from the rail. They could hang on for a piece.  

COUNTRY GRAMMAR missed the Remsen because of a fever. His work tab at Payson is decent, but I’m skeptical of the recording of the final times. How many horses breeze exactly :49.40 three consecutive times in a row? Still, it’s Brown/Castellano, who have a 29% win rate together.

At first glance, GEAR JOCKEY looked like  the race’s “why?” horse. Still a maiden, his only off the board finishes were on the dirt. But take a look at his last start at a mile. On the far outside in a field of 11, he broke outward, costing him about a length. He hustled up into contention through strong early fractions, was wide around the turn, and started to run out of oats halfway down the stretch. Yes, his form is better on the lawn, but in his second to last breeze, which was a bullet, this guy stretched out like a dirt horse and did the work with little urging. He’s a Calumet homebred with Claiborne back-class. His second dam is a half-sister to Stroll.

Not gonna get them today

LIAM'S LUCKY CHARM — distance challenged. has been a thorn in Chance It’s side, but only at shorter distances. Note that the Ralph Nick’s trainee only wins when he has an uncontested early lead. 

THE FALCON — slow, one-paced grinder.

MAKABIM — slow, one-paced grinder.

MASTERDAY — can’t beat claimer. One-paced sort, that pace being slow.

Selections

Outside posts are the kiss of death at Gulfstream. In the last dozen years, only two horses won from the outside; that was post nine, plus only two have won the Fountain of Youth first off a layoff. I like Dennis’ Moment, he’s a talented horse. I also realize this isn’t his goal, and perhaps he isn’t 100% cranked. I don’t like leaving Candy Tycoon off my top four, so if Chance It scratches, use him.

As Seen on TV fits the profile of previous Fountain of Youth winners.

#6 AS SEEN ON TV (9-2)

#11 ETE INDIEN  (8-1)

#5 DENNIS’ MOMENT (2-1)

#12 CHANCE IT (7-2)

Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Buena Vista Stakes (G2)

Super Longshot Play in Buena Vista Stakes

By: Robert Marks (@theyreinthegate)

Saturday at 5:39 pm Eastern time is the Grade 2 2020 $200,000 Buena Vista Stakes. This race is for fillies and mares 4 old’s and Up. The Distance is 1 miles on the turf. 

With no Derby Prep races this week, this will be the main event of the day going off as Race #5 on the Santa Anita card.

#9 Super Patriot (12-1)  In these turf races I look for experience and this 5 year old mare fits the bill. She also has been in the money the last 7 races which include 5 at Santa Anita. Trained by Richard Baltas, I love the valve at 12-1 and this is a strong overlay bet.

#2Caressa (4-1) This 4 year old is hot, winning 3 of the last 4. The caveat is that she has only 1 start on the turf but that was her last race, it was at Santa Anita, and she beat older mares. With 12 racers could get caught in a pace duel. She will be close to the front early on. 

#8-Lady Prancelot (Ireland) (5-1)  Another Richard Baltas trainee, she likes the win photo with a win % of 29% and over ½ million dollars in earnings. This 4 year old has a lot of starts (17) and now she faces older stakes seasoned mares. Pace makes the race and we think there will be enough pace for her deep closing running style for her to be coming late picking off horses. 

Overall, we expect a fast pace with Caressa right there going early setting up the race for our other 2 picks, Super Patriot and Lady Prancelot closing late. We see Super Patriot as the victor. If she is anywhere near the morning line odds of 12-1 this will be a steal and worthy of win bet money.

Wagering/Betting Handigambling Bankroll: Here is our $100 worth of betting for the race

Exacta Key Box: 9/2,8  = $10 for $40 total

Trifecta 9/2,8/2,8 =  ($5 Box for $10 Total)

Win Bet 9 = $50 

As always, watch the Board and if at the track watch how the horses look in the Paddock and adjust your bets accordingly. Good Luck!

Handicapper's Corner: Risen Star Stakes (G2) Div. 1

Mr. Monomoy looks for Risen Star redemption

By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers Off 

 

This year, the Risen Star Stakes (G2) is bigger and better than ever, in a few regards.  For one, so many horses pointed toward it that the race had to split into two divisions.  Each division is worth a cool $400,000, and each division awards its top four finishers the full 50-20-10-5 points that it would have offered even if the race had not split off.

Furthermore, the distance of the race is longer than ever.  Extended from a mile and forty yards to a mile and a sixteenth in 1991, it has been run at that distance every year from then until 2019.  Now, instead of having to wait until the final round of preps to test their ability to stay a mile and a sixteenth against stakes horses, trainers and owners can get a stiffer test of their horses’ stamina earlier in the process.

Though the winner of the Risen Star has still never won the Kentucky Derby (G1), the 2019 Derby winner did contest the Risen Star; Country House made his graded stakes debut in the Risen Star, rallying to finish second behind War of Will.  War of Will won the Preakness last year; he joins 1975 Preakness winner Master Derby, who won this race when it was called the Louisiana Derby Trial Stakes.  Other top-class winners of the Risen Star include 2007 Champion Older Horse Lawyer Ron (2006), 2013 Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) winner Mucho Macho Man (2011), and 2017 Horse of the Year Gun Runner (2016).

This preview focuses on the first division of the Risen Star, run as Race 12 at Fair Grounds on Saturday, February 15.  In a separate piece here at ThoroFan, Laurie Ross will look at the second division of the race.

Race 12: Risen Star Stakes (G2), three-year-olds, one and one eighth miles on the dirt, post time 6:38pm CST

This division of the Risen Star could very well be called the Lecomte Rematch Division: five of the top six finishers turn up in this race, including the top three: Enforceable, Silver State, and Mr. Monomoy.  The Lecomte Stakes featured a wicked early pace, thanks mainly to Bango and Shashashakemeup.  Shashashakemeup returns in this division of the Risen Star, and the likes of Ready to Roll and Blackberry Wine suggests the fractions should be honest, though perhaps not as breakneck as they were in the Lecomte. 

That suggests things won’t be terrible for talented closers like Enforceable or Silver State, though not quite perfect, either.  Between those two, Enforceable appeals a bit more than Silver State does.  Not only did Enforceable beat Silver State on the square last time, but Enforceable is already a winner at the Risen Star’s nine-furlong distance. 

Silver State is more of a question mark going a mile and an eighth.  The Hard Spun on top is a positive influence, though his dam was a sprinter and judging from her progeny a mile and an eighth is likely to test his stamina.

The biggest beneficiary, both from the likely pace and the stretch out to a mile and an eighth, is the third-place finisher from the Lecomte: Mr. Monomoy.  Though he could not hold off the late-closing pair of Enforceable and Silver State, he came home five and a quarter lengths clear of fourth-place Finnick the Fierce despite being close to a pace that caused everyone else who raced near it to wilt.  It was a strong effort, especially for a horse who had only three previous starts, only one at a route and none in stakes company.

If Mr. Monomoy gets the same kind of trip this time, sitting a length or two off a pace that isn’t torrid like last time, he could get the jump and be able to hold off the closers.  His pedigree only strengthens his chances to thrive with this step up in trip: he is by Belmont winner Palace Malice, and a half-sister to Monomoy Girl, a three-time G1 winner at a mile and an eighth.

Of course, the Lecomte is not the entire picture, not even in this division of the Risen Star.  The top two finishers from an important allowance race on January 18 return in the Risen Star: Blackberry Wine and Digital. 

Digital’s odds are stacked against him: he is hemmed on the rail in an eleven-horse field, he could not stave off Blackberry Wine’s re-rally at a mile and a sixteenth, and Digital’s pedigree (Into Mischief out of a Grand Slam mare who was herself a sprinter, and has mainly produced sprinters) suggests he should be cutting back from a mile and a sixteenth, not stretching out an extra half-furlong. 

Blackberry Wine, on the other hand?  Though, admittedly, part of why he got past Digital late tied to distance limitations, it still shows guts and maturity to get passed and come back.  And, though Blackberry Wine may not make the top (it depends on how hard Ready to Roll and the newly blinkered Digital send), he has shown some ability from just off the pace as well.  Blackberry Wine is also bred to handle the stretch-out in trip, being by the stoutly bred Oxbow out of a mare who has already produced a nine-furlong winner.  Blackberry Wine looks like a promising new face who is well set for his stakes debut.

Selections:

#9 Mr. Monomoy (6/1)

#7 Blackberry Wine (5/1)

#8 Enforceable (7/2)

Longshot:  Trainer Bill Mott ran a good second in this race with a horse who had yet to try stakes company, eventual Kentucky Derby winner Country House.  He returns this year with another promising yet relatively inexperienced prospect, #5 Moon Over Miami (10/1).  Two starts ago he won a one-mile maiden special weight with authority, sitting a few lengths off a hot pace and drawing off easily.  

He returned in an allowance at Gulfstream on January 11 but finished a disappointing fifth as the favorite.  However, he did not get quite as sharp a pace to chase behind frontrunning winner Ny Traffic.  He may have also regressed off a big maiden win.  Now he has that behind him.  He should get some pace in front of him again this time, honest but not blistering, suitable for his running style.  And the stretch to a mile and an eighth should suit him nicely: he is by Malibu Moon out of Zinzay, a mare who is G3-placed at two turns on the grass, and from the family of Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) winner Music Note and John C. Mabee (G1) winner Musical Chimes.

Handicappers Corner: 2020 Risen Star Stakes Div. 2

Starting Anneau in the Risen Star

By: Laurie Ross, ThoroCap

The Risen Star Stakes was divided for the fourth time in the race’s history. Dispersal captured the 1989 second division, the first time the race was split. Dispersal would go on to compete at the highest level, finishing third in the 1989 Breeders’ Cup Sprint the same year, and winning the 1 1/8-mile Woodward Handicap (G1) a year later. 

Four years later, Dry Bean would earn a victory when the Risen Star was split for the second time. He later finished third in that year’s Haskell Invitational (G1). Just two years later, Beavers Nose won the second division. He continued on to compete in listed and restricted stakes over dirt and turf.

Let’s take a look at the field.

The Favorite

This year’s second division of the Risen Star (G2) drew a dozen colts, led by Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up, Anneau d’Or. The son of Medaglia d’Oro is a neck and head from being undefeated. He gave Thousand Words all he could handle in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). Blane Wright’s charge has the class and pedigree to handle these easily. The concerning factor, of course, is fitness. Anneau d’Or has logged four brisk stamina works since January. 

Could Upset

Modernist, a son of Uncle Mo, is the only one in the race with a win at the distance. He’s the first foal out of a half-sister to 2004 Champion 2-Year-Old Filly Sweet Catomine, and 2009 Breeders’ Cup Distaff heroine Life is Sweet. The Bill Mott trainee is one of six in here who may vie for the lead.

By Goldencents out of an Unbridled’s Song mare, Mailman Money has a solid miler/middle distance pedigree. The Bret Calhoun trainee is undefeated in both starts, and his Brisnet late pace speed figures are high. The only thing against him is post 11, but Gabriel Saez is a hot jock. In the last year, he’s won or placed in 12 of 15 starts.  

Live Longshots

Major Fed looked impressive winning his last start by a comfortable 4 1/4-lengths, despite being wide the entire way. By Ghostzapper out of a Smart Strike mare, Major Fed has the pedigree to run all day.

A very well bred son of Giant’s Causeway, Mr. Big News should love classic distances. Members of his family include Devil’s Bag, Glorious Song, and Singspiel, all champions. The Bret Calhoun trainee needed every inch of the Fair Grounds Stretch to win his maiden at 1 1/6-miles in his last race. He was wide on the far turn and had to alter course a couple of times, but was up to win by a nose.

The one-eyed Finnick the Fierce tries hard, and he’s one of those types whose late rush occasionally wins races, but more often settles for a minor placing.

Maybe Next Time

Liam’s Lucky Charm stretches out for the second time in his career. The runaway winner of the Pasco Stakes. Last year, The Ralph Nick’s trainee was a distant third, beaten ten lengths by Chance It. By Kozan, Liam’s Lucky Charm has a sprinter/miler pedigree and pace-setting/pressing style.

Truculent has Brisnet speed figure improvement in each start. By Raison d'Etat out of a Tiznow mare who descends from the family of Pulpit, Truculent should handle the distance. However, the Jack Sisterson trainee will be jumping to nine furlongs and trying stakes company for his 3-year-old debut. He may want to fight it out on the front end with a couple of others in here.

Fame to Famous has been just so-so over the lawn, so now gets a shot on dirt. His Pioneerof the Nile half-brother was third in two starts on dirt, and their stakes-winning turf miler dam is a half-sister to He’s Had Enough, runner-up in the 2012 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Fame to Famous had no excuse in the Pulpit Stakes last out. He got a perfect rail trip ride under Luis Saez, yet tired in the stretch as Sam F. Davis hero Sole Valante stormed by.

By miler Liam’s Map out of a multiple stakes-winning sprinter, Lynn’s Map is up against it in the nine-furlong Risen Star. His pace pressing style and post means he’ll likely be wide.

NY Traffic showed huge improvement while winning an optional claimer by 6 3/4-lengths after switching to the barn of 31% trainer Joseph Saffie, Jr. The pretty gray son of Cross Traffic has a miler pedigree and will have to go from the far outside. Note that Saffie, Jr. has won one of nine starts in graded stakes at a route in the last year.

Excession has raced for five months without a break, winning once in seven starts. He lost ground in the LeComte finishing seventh, eight lengths behind Enforcable.  

Selections

Pedigree and whether a contender gained or lost ground in their last start are the best indications of getting nine furlongs. Stating the obvious, Anneau d'Or is the one to beat. I’m not confident that he’ll win a head-to-head battle, but if he outclasses them, he should win the second division of the Risen Star.  Any of the last out maiden winners could jump up and run a huge race.

#8 ANNEAU D'OR (9/5)

#1 MODERNIST (8/1)

#11 MAILMAN MONEY (8/1)

#7 MAJOR FED (10/1)