Handicapper's Corner: 2024 San Vicente Stakes (G2)

 Muth vs five rivals in San Vicente Stakes

By: Stuart Marc deVoe, ThoroFan Handicapper

Welcome to the on-ramp of California’s road to the 2024 Kentucky Derby!  Although there are no Derby points awarded for Saturday’s event, this 7-furlong test for 3-year-olds will get our juices flowing and commence the dreams of roses.  Those that run well will certainly look to take the next step in February’s Robert Lewis Stakes.

Before we get too ahead of ourselves, let’s look at the race at hand.  Six sophomores will face the starter led by a most likely odds-on favorite in Muth.  He’s a Grade 1 winner, looks fast, and is trained by Baffert, who is looking for his 13^th San Vicente victory. 

As “insurance,” Baffert will also run first-out maiden winner Pilot Commander.  John Sadler, Mike McCarthy, and Dick Mandella will each send out runners who last competed on turf.  Are they filling the race, or do they have a legit chance? 

Here's the field:

1.  Monlit Sonata (T. Yakteen/G. Franco/6-1)  This Malibu Moon colt looked impressive in his debut.  He didn’t break well but pulled himself into the race while traveling 5 to 6 wide around the turn.  I like how he separated from his competition late in the stretch and responded well to the jock’s urging.  He has a ton of upside.  On a down note, he was let go at 33-1 in that maiden score.  Nobody knew Yakteen had a runner???

2.  Slider (J. Sadler/J. Rosario/4-1)  Ran two respectable races on dirt down at Del Mar this past summer.  When he broke his maiden, he rated off the speed in a slow-paced race and powered home.  Switching to the turf for his next few races, one of which was the BC Juvenile Turf Sprint, where he was beaten just over three lengths, he actually regressed on both the Beyer & TimeformUS scales.  Was it the surface or just natural regression?  Either way, he has not run beyond 5.5 furlongs in any of his four starts.  If you back him and he wins, you will get paid.

3.  Muth (B. Baffert/J.J. Hernandez/4-5)  Welp…a $2 million OBS March purchase, a Grade 1 winner, a 2^nd in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile in November, all Beyer numbers at 90 or higher (next best in the field is an 86 from Slider), his trainer rules the left coast racing…need I go on.  On paper and reputation, he towers over these.  Can you take 1/5 or 2/5 odds that Muth can run to his credentials? 

4.  Pilot Commander (B. Baffert/F. Prat/5-2)  The “other Baffert” comes off a workmanlike maiden win at Del Mar.  He beat five others while not switching leads until he hit the finish line.  One would think he has improvement in him, given he is by Justify, trained by Baffert, and cost $700k at a training auction.  Note that his pilot in the maiden win understandably sticks with the favorite.  He does get Flavien Prat as a very capable sub.  As the most likely the 2^nd choice here, I’m not sure there is much value, nor do I feel he is at the level of his stablemate yet. 

5.  Formidable Man (M. McCarthy/K. Kimura/20-1)  Both his lifetime starts came on turf at one mile, where he was a bit headstrong early.  He’s by City of Light, so a 7-furlong dirt race may not be out of the question.  This might not be a bad spot to find out, although he is light on speed figures.  I wish them luck.

6.  Boltage (R. Mandella/M. Smith/12-1)  Mandella sends out this runner who ran his last three on turf, all at a mile.  He finished behind Formidable Man in October after also being headstrong early.  He is also light on speed figures and will get my best wishes, too. 

 

Summary

On paper, Muth lays over this field.  As mentioned earlier, he’s a Grade 1 caliber animal whose accomplishments, connections, and speed figures put him in the winner’s circle. 

I feel the two outside entrants in Formidable Man, and Boltage are taking a stab here or are merely filling the race and are a plain toss for me.   

It would surprise no one if the “other Baffert,” Pilot Commander, figured stuff out and improved immensely.  I’m still stuck on the fact he didn’t switch leads.  Bob always has them well-schooled, and a Baffert exacta would be too short for my taste. 

That leaves the inside runners in Moonlit Sonata and Slider.  Of them, Slider is surely meant to take more action than ‘ Sonata, and rightly so based on track record and speed figures.  However, I do like how Moonlit Sonata finished up in his race, and another half-furlong should be well within his scope. 

 

Handigambling:

My first inclination is to pass.  A very short-priced favorite in a small field who looks ultra-tough is not something I want to wager on or against.  Since we don’t write these columns to sit on our hands, I will look to get a price behind Muth and hope for the best.

Based on $100 wagered:

$100 exacta #3 Muth with #1Moonlit Sonata cold!

 

Good Luck!