Plenty of upside in Lecomte Stakes
By: Rowan Ward, Blinkers-Off
The race takes its name from Lecomte: an equine star of the 1850s, a half-brother to Saratoga stakes namesake Prioress, and the only horse to defeat the great Lexington. Though Lecomte was bred in Kentucky, he went to Louisiana as a yearling and will forever be associated with that state.
The 2024 Lecomte Stakes drew eight runners, with two, Next Level and Awesome Road, scratching The 3-year-olds are set to compete for a $200,000 purse and Road to the Kentucky Derby points. All six horses are trained by Derby-eligible trainers, and the points on offer are allotted 20-10-6-4-2 to the top five finishers.
Though this early-season points tally will not be enough to guarantee even the winner a slot in the starting gate given how the leaderboard has shaped up in recent years, a win is enough points to serve as insurance especially if the horse finishes second or third in future prep races.
Though no Lecomte Stakes winner has yet gone on to win the Kentucky Derby, horses who run well in the Lecomte do tend to run well further down the Fair Grounds spur of the Derby trail.
Seven have won the Louisiana Derby, most recently International Star (2015). Although 2023 winner Instant Coffee has not yet returned to the track since a sixth-place finish in the Louisiana Derby (G2), second-place Two Phil’s went on to dominate the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) and finish second behind Mage in the Run for the Roses.
Let's review the field.
In dirt routes at Fair Grounds, speed has been playing well, though horses who are coming off the pace haven’t found it insurmountable if the pace sets up for them. There is a possibility for a sharp pace in the Lecomte, with Track Phantom there to contend from the outside, and Nash likely to show pace from in between horses.
Among this speed brigade, Gun Runner Stakes winner #7 Track Phantom it the most appealing. He has not missed the board in four starts, showing consistency. He is also a winner over the course and distance: in that Gun Runner, Track Phantom battled Next Level early and despite the fast pace he had plenty in the tank to draw clear and hold by 1 ¼ lengths. If Track Phantom can run back to that kind of race, he may prove difficult to beat.
Still, if Nash is able to get back to his better forward style, he is unlikely to actually beat Track Phantom to the lead but the pace could be even sharper in the Lecomte than in the Gun Runner This means a good late-running horse may be more of a threat in late stretch than last time.
The two most interesting late-running types in the field include #5 Ethan Energy and #4 Can Group. Both have something to prove in a stakes race on dirt, but both have the upside to consider in a race with a sharp early pace likely.
Ethan Energy faces winners for the first time but broke his maiden over this course and distance. He did so rallying from midfield into a pace that was not quite as sharp as the one he will get in this race, suggesting that he could be even better set. And, with the Lecomte coming second off the lay, he should be in even sharper form for trainer Brad Cox.
Can Group switches back to dirt after three starts on turf. His best form so far has been on the grass, including a nose victory in the Bourbon (G2) and a quality fourth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1). Both of those races, as well as his maiden victory at Kentucky Downs, had him making a smart closing run. The drawback is that Ethan Energy probably gets the jump on Can Group unless new rider Jareth Loveberry can sit Can Group a little closer. Still, he showed a bit of ability to handle dirt in some sprint tries last year. The two-turn distance should suit him better, and his pedigree (by Good Samaritan out of an unraced Street Sense mare) suggests surface versatility.
Selections:
#5 Ethan Energy (4-1)
#4 Can Group (6-1)
#7 Track Phantom (9-5)
Longshot: #6 Lat Long (8-1) faces winners for the first time after five tries in the maiden ranks. He finally broke his maiden December 17 at Oaklawn, tracking in range of a lively pace and opening up in the lane. That kind of a trip, especially from a near-outside post, could work out: he has a chance to avoid some trip trouble, and he has a few foes who can set rollicking early fractions while he lies in wait early. He reunites with Brian Hernandez, a good local Fair Grounds rider with whom he developed some rapport as a juvenile. If they can take a reasonable step forward from that last-out maiden win, Lat Long could be in the picture at a price.
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