Seeking a sweet payout in the Las Cienegas Stakes
By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power
The 6 ½ furlong event appears evenly matched and includes a quartet conditioned by Phil D'Amato, including the favorite, Elm Drive.
Let's review the most likely culprits.
Elm Drive has a victory and a close second in two attempts down the hill. She captured the Mizdirection Stakes over the course last May and finished an unfortunate second, beaten a head, in the Senator Ken Maddy Stakes last November. More recently, she was found a mile a little too far and tired to finish seventh, bested by three lengths in Del Mar's one-mile Matriarch (G1). The Grade 1-placed filly is most successful as a pacesetter/presser. Must be respected.
The Irish-bred Wakanaka is a road warrioress. She's competed at ten tracks in Italy, New York, Florida, Kentucky, and California and rarely runs a bad race. The Grade 2 winner can be counted upon to shore up the exotics, but she hasn't stood in the winner's circle since her Fall Harvest Stakes victory in November 2022. Wakanaka's best performance since then was a second-place finish in last year's 6 ½ furlong Ladies Turf Sprint at Kentucky Downs, where she stormed from last to just miss the victory by a head in a three-way photo finish. Previously conditioned by Bill Mott, Wakanaka is making her first appearance for Mike McCarthy and retains the services of Joel Rosario, who was aboard for the Ladies Turf Sprint. According to RaceLens, McCarthy is 0 for 21 in their first turf start after the trainer switch, but they hit the board at 43%. Exotics.
Gracelund Gray switches things up after a steady stream of turf mile events. The Peter Eurton trainee is most successful when employing a pacesetting style and has shown swift early speed, so the distance cut is logical. However, her class is questionable since she is unplaced in four graded attempts. Exotics.
Kissed by Fire aims to keep her three-race win streak intact while moving into graded company and stretching an additional half-furlong. The Peter Eurton trainee toyed with a herd of Allowance Optional Claiming class runners over the downhill course two starts back, completing the distance in 1:07.56, about a second off the track record. Kissed by Fire's Brisnet, speed ratings have improved in her last three starts. We'll see if the speedy pacesetter can fend off the field. Live longshot.
If the pace is contentious, Honey Pants could surprise. The pretty gray mare closed for second place behind Elm Drive in the Mizdirection Stakes in her sole start over the downhill course. The Phil D'Amato trainee earned a 93 Brisnet rating, her highest of the year. Additionally, Frankie Dettori, winning turf sprints at 22%, climbs aboard. Live longshot.
Fast and Shiny has won and placed in two of three starts on the downhill course, most recently finishing second in the Unzip Me Stakes. The Bob Baffert trainee battled through the stretch but was turned back by the winner and lost by a length. Despite this, she earned a career-best 96 speed rating. Drayden Van Dyke hopes to restart his career with a shiny stakes victory. Longshot exotics.
Analysis
Pace pressers have won five of the last ten editions of the Las Cienegas, with pacesetters grabbing four.
This year's Las Cienegas is filled with speed with four confirmed pacesetters. Kissed by Fire has the most zip and the ability to sustain it, but she'll have to prove she has the class of Elm Drive. Honey Pants can upset the applecart if the pace falls apart.
I'll go with the improving Kissed by Fire to upset Elm Drive. Wakanaka is consistent, and Honey Pants could close for a piece.
5. Kissed by Fire (8-1)
9. Elm Drive (5-2)
7. Wakanaka (3-1)
2. Honey Pants (6-1)
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