Who will rule the Pegasus Turf?
By: John Caro, Thorofan Handicapper
If you played the bets from that race that were given in my last article you did well with a $1 Exacta box paying $169.80. Turf conditions should be better this go around. I expect the ground will be firm as opposed to good.
If you have time go back and watch the video of the Fort Lauderdale. Note the pace more than the speed. And the pace was quite quick. 47 at the half, 1:34 at the mile and 1:46 & one for the final. That's cooking folks.
The winner, #11 Main Event (11-1), did what was expected and went to the front in speedball fashion and held on by a head/nose to #6 Kingmax (17-1). #2 Jerry the Nipper rolled in for third by a half and #13 Grand Sonata came fourth by a neck. All of them are entered with Grand Sonata as an AE.
Let's explore the top contenders.
#6 Kingmax (12-1) ran the best race in that one coming from midpack about 5 lengths behind Main Event on the lead. Egan made his move through the final turn between horses from the 5 path and then closed quickly to lose by a very small margin. If he works out a little better trip he's got the guts to win this one.
No question #11 Main Event (10-1) is the speed and will likely set another hot pace. Castellano stays with him instead of going back to his regular ride on #5 Webslinger.
#2 Jerry the Nipper (20-1) (love the name) is adding blinkers which seems logical as he kinda got stuck on the rail and seemed hesitant to go through in the stretch until J.L. Ortiz prompted him and once clear moved forward with ease. I'm going to lock these three into a $1 exacta box with two others for a cost of $20.
Some remarks about others in the field.
#3 Integration (3-1) – Four-year-old He's three for three lifetime and twice winner at the distance, including the Virginia Derby, GIII, and the Hill Prince, GII. He gave 7 lengths on the backstretch to the leader in the Hill Prince with a great closing kick to win by 5. Steady training at Payson Park, and he gets Gaffalione up for the mount.
#8 Master Piece (8-1) - This is an 8 year old who often plugs along to find himself ITM and last time out won in the Red Smith, GII going longer after a long break. He's been off for 77 days, and I expect that helps him. He's 3 for 4 at the distance. Get Jose Lezcano, who is a magician in these types of races.
#12 Catnip (15-1) – Another youngish boy who's 2 for 4 at the distance has made his mark from outside posts and has bee very competitive in graded company. He's also been on a break since his awful performance in the Arlington Millions. Great work tab with two excellent 6-furlong works. Frankie D gets the mount, which says a lot to me. And who doesn't like catnip?
#9 Warm Heart (9-5) – The ML favorite at 9/5. Yes, yes, I'm aware that it's not good to say something less than floral about invites from overseas, and it is Aidan O'Brien with Ryan Moore, who I admire and watch often, But….This is Galileo breed to an Australian queen and it like longer distance. If it were a mile and a half or two he would be my top pick but not for what I expect is going to be a blistering pace on a track many of these have seen and won on. Can't do 9 to 5.
For my money, that is the field as I see it. As noted above, #6 Kingmax shows he has the stuff to get this done, and I'll use him on top and under or in combination in any bets. The ML odds for the top contenders above are very generous and should be used.
Handigambling – Judge your budget and make your wagers to maximize returns.
#6 Kingmax - $10 win, $15 place, $20 show
$1 Exacta Box – 2, 6, 8, 11, 12 - $20 - You can play this in multiples of a dollar.
Also, #13 Grand Sonata is a replacement for any of these 5.
Alternate Exacta - $2 Exacta 2, 3, 8, 11, 12 with 6 plus a $1 Exacta 3 with 6 - $11
If you want to play a Trifecta, here's an option. #13 is a replacement for any below.
$.50 Trifectas – 6 with 2, 8, 11 with 2, 3, 8, 9, 11,12 - Plus 2, 3, 8, 9, 11, 12 with 6 with 2, 8, 11 - $15
No comments:
Post a Comment