Dirt horses take flight in Pegasus Invitational
By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman
In this first major Grade 1 event of the year, the Pegasus field features a talented group of older horses that have a strong chance to win.
Trainer Todd Pletcher, who saddled Life is Good to victory in this race in 2022, has entered three horses for this edition, while conditioner Saffie Joseph will be represented by a pair of runners.
A couple of newly minted four-year olds, National Treasure, from the stable of Bob Baffert (Yes, he’s here too), who is a two-time winner of this race and First Mission, trained by Brad Cox, will likely vie for favoritism among the bettors.
First-race post time is set for 11:00 a.m., with a 5:40 p.m. scheduled post for the Pegasus World Cup.
PP – Horse – Jockey/Trainer - ML
1 – Nimitz Class – Edgard Zayas/George Weaver – 20-1 – Consistent five-year-old, who makes his first start for his new barn, has finished worse than third only once in his last twelve starts. Had a successful 2023 season, winning four stake races. Has only competed in one prior graded race and that was at Monmouth Park where he was runner-up in the G3 Salvatore Mile. This race will be his first venture away from the Mid-Atlantic tracks where he has accumulated all his starts. Should be forwardly placed from his inside post, but from a class standpoint, he appears to be up against it.
2 - O’Connor – Paco Lopez/Saffie Joseph – 8-1 - Chilean-bred seven-year-old had a nice prep win in the G3 Harlan’s Holiday over this Gulfstream main track. He also shows some nice wins on his resume in a few other big races, including a Group 1 in South America. He has experience going the distance but will need pace help as he will be trying to rally late.
3 - Dynamic One – Irad Ortiz/Todd Pletcher – 15-1 - His last win came in 2022 when he won the G2 Suburban Stakes. Made only one start in 2023, after a fifteen-month layoff and finished fifth in an optional-claiming race here last month. Looks to be going up against a tough group.
4 - Hoist the Gold – John Velazquez/Dallas Stewart – 12-1 - In between his wire-to-wire win in the mud by nearly five-lengths in Aqueduct’s G2 Cigar Mile last time out and a win in the G2 Phoenix Stakes at Keeneland in October, this guy saw action in the G1 B.C. Sprint, where he finished sixth. He’s going to try to stretch out his speed as he attempts this distance for the first time. Based on the way he ran his last race this horse might be sent early again.
5 – Trademark – Fernado De La Cruz/Victoria Oliver – 15-1 - Was last seen nipping First Mission in the G2 Clark Stakes at Churchill Downs, in what was undoubtedly this horse’s best lifetime performance. Has not raced at Gulfstream but has run five times at the distance. Was second in the G2 Lukas Classic and third in the G3 Salvatore Mile, so he’s had some success at the graded level. He’ll probably need another top performance to pull out a win here.
6 - Senor Buscador – Junior Alvarado/Todd Fincher – 20-1 - Did most of his racing on the West Coast in 2023, participating in many big races. He won the G2 San Diego Handicap at Del Mar and was third in the G1 Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita. A month after his seventh-place finish in the G1 B.C. Classic, he shipped East to rally from last place to be second best in the G2 Cigar Mile. He is a late runner who will need a swift pace up front and if that happens, look for this runner to be involved in the stretch running.
7 - National Treasure – Flavien Prat/Bob Baffert – 9-5 -This race marks his seventh straight appearance in top tier Grade 1 company, and he’ll be trying to halt a four-race losing streak since winning the Preakness Stakes last May. Finished off his sophomore season losing a heartbreaker to Cody’s Wish in the final step of G1 B.C. Dirt Mile. He needs the lead to do his best running and if he can get it, he can go a long way. But that’s a big IF.
8 - First Mission – Luis Saez/Brad Cox – 7-2 - Showed his grit and determination winning a stretch battle with Arabian Lion in the G3 Lexington Stakes last spring. Was then forced to the sidelines with an injury, then he returned six months later to win an optional-claiming allowance, before succumbing in the G2 Clark to Trademark by a mere nose to close out his three-year-old campaign. He’s been pointed to this race, is working well and his good tactical speed should have him well-place throughout.
9 - Grand Aspen – Jose Ortiz/Todd Pletcher – 8-1 - Has not been worse than third in his last six starts, including a second-place finish in the G3 Harlan’s Holiday, losing a photo finish by a nose. Look for him to be chasing the pace early, but the big step up in class may be his undoing.
10 - Il Miracolo – Javier Castellano/Antonio Sano – 20-1 - He ran in some big races at some major tracks last year. In his favor, he has raced over this surface several times with a couple of wins and three seconds to his credit. He has good current form to make him competitive but must find a way to overcome his post draw.
11 – Crupi – Frankie Dettori/Todd Pletcher – 20-1 – Took this horse eight starts to break his maiden, but after doing so, he won three of his next four, including his last two being stakes victories at Aqueduct. Makes his first start at Gulfstream. He’s handled the distance with success, but it’s going to be nearly impossible for this off the pace runner to win from a tough post.
12 - Skippylongstocking – Tyler Gafflione/Saffie Joseph – 8-1 - The winner of the G2 Charlestown Classic and G3 Challenger Stakes finished third in the G1 B.C. Dirt Mile in his last start. Has six lifetime wins, and half of them have come over the Gulfstream track, so there is certainly an affinity for the surface. He brings good form into the race. The far outside post and class concerns will make it difficult for this horse to get it done.
AE – Castle Chaos – Tyler Gafflione/Robert Falcone – 30-1 - Obviously is hoping for a late scratch to secure a spot in the gate. He is an improving horse who turned in a decent showing with a distant third-place finish in the G2 Cigar Mile behind two opponents who are in the main body of this race. Should he draw in, he’ll be up against it from a class perspective and from a disadvantageous post.
Analysis: I believe this race might be determined right out of the gate. I know National Treasure will certainly go for the lead, as he is most effective when in front. I’m banking on Hoist the Gold being sent aggressively to the lead as well (That may or may not develop). However, should those two horses battle on the front end, both with questions at the distance, along with a half of dozen other horses that like to press the leaders, it should make the pace honest enough to set it up for a horse with tactical speed well-positioned behind the front-flight that might trip out well and that horse for me is, First Mission.
From the Brad Cox barn, First Mission is lightly raced with plenty of upside. Last spring after his win in the Lexington, he was highly considered for the Preakness Stakes, but injury prevented him from participating. His connections went back to the drawing board and mapped out a campaign that saw a comeback win in the fall which then led to the Clark Handicap, where he ran an excellent race, missing by a nose in his first try against older horses. Look for him to attack at the top of the stretch and get a jump on the closing types.
There is no doubt that National Treasure has ran his best races when on the lead. Should the horse find himself unchallenged early (And that’s a possibility), then the Baffert charge could prove best. However, if he’s put to the test early, the nine furlongs could be out of his reach. If not, watch out!
Wager: Here is how I will use my mythical $100 ThoroFan bucks
$50 win bet on First Mission - $20 exacta box First Mission/National Treasure ($40)
$5 exactas First Mission over Senor Buscador and O’ Connor ($10)
Good luck and as always, enjoy the race!!
