Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Ft. Lauderdale Stakes (G2)

 Ending 2023 with Fireworks in Ft. Lauderdale Stakes

By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper

Welcome to Gulfstream as we close out 2023. Hopefully, the turf will be good for these ten runners going nine furlongs. Weather in South Florida has been iffy at best, with many rains in this early part of our post-hurricane pre-winter season.

The race features top trainers. Two from Chad Brown, two from Todd Pletcher, and two from Mike Maker, with McGaughey, Delgado, Weaver and Moubarak all hosting one each. 

Two speedballs may define the pace, but some good trackers can close with authority. Should be a good contest.

Here are the bullets for each horse.

#1 – Marwad – three time winner of nine races. Was first going longer here in January and was second here in a Grade III going longer. Third start off a layoff. Midpack closer.

#2 – Grand Sonata  - He's two for two at Gulfstream and has good speed. Gaffalione gets the ride and won with him on their last outing at Saratoga going this distance.

#3 – Jerry The Nipper – Lots of non graded stakes experience in state bread company often going shorter. His regular rider, José Ortiz, gets the mount. Often in the money but is not on top recently.

#4 – Main Event – Has won four of twelve on the front. Speedball!!! He has also run here three times with two firsts and a second. Might be very dangerous at a price.

#5 – Kingmax – Euro convert who had a year off from July 22 through June this year to win two races going shorter at Monmouth on the grass and then went to Woodbine for a Grade II on the synthetic with poor results in July. He's had a steady work tab since July, and Delgado is a master with turf quality horses. Great longshot pick.

#6 – Fort Washington – Seen last out fighting to the wire to win, and his form is steadily improving since August. He appears to like shorter, but he gets Luis Saez up, and he's a War Front colt, so I'm hoping he can stick around for a piece.

#7 – Stone Age  - Classy horse with $1.2 million to his name but hasn't seen the winner's circle for at least 10 races, admittedly against stiffer competition. He's one of two Brown entries, and Johnny V gets the call.

#8 – Red Run – Had a good win at Churchill three back at this distance but seems to have declining form. He likes to close, but it doesn't seem that he has the speed to do that against the others.

#9 – Running Bee – There is little doubt why he is the favorite. Six races with three wins and two seconds. His last two wins were by large margins, and he is the other Speedball in the race. He wins on the front end, and I don't think the wide post is going to hurt him very much if he gets to the front.

#10 – Henley's Joy - Hasn't won in a while, but he keeps plugging away as he tops $1.1 million. He's ITM three for five at Gulfstream.

Handigambling  - I'm going to go light on the betting for this race and enjoy the jockeys looking for a tactical advantage. Speed will no doubt be a pace factor. Hoping to find some value in those that can close to the speed and possibly win.

$.50 Trifecta – 9 with 4,5,6 with All

$1 Exacta – 1,4,5,6 with 1,4,5,6

Bonus Bets

Daily Double race #10 and this race

2,5,7 with 4,5,6,9

$.50 Pick 4 starting in race #8

6, 9 with 1,3 with 2,5,7 with 4,5,6,9

Good Luck and Happy New Year

 

 

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Mr. Prospector Stakes (G3)

 A Few good prospects in the Mr. Prospector

By: Michael Amo, Thorofan Handicapper

The 1970 foal crop was one for the record books. 24,361 foals were registered that year. That group produced a Who’s Who in Thoroughbred racing.

In that group were Stop the Music, Sham, Forego, Secretariat, and Mr. Prospector, for whom this week’s Handicap Corner race is named. He raced 14 times, finishing in the money 13 times.

In 1974, Daily Racing Form Free Handicap crowned him as the top sprinter. He was a superstar in a decade of many stars. He continued his prowess in the breeding shed, being named Leading Sire in 1987-1988.

The field for this year’s Mr. Prospector Stakes is talented but not with the credentials of the great Mr. Prospector.

Here is the field.

 

1.   Great Navigator (Sea Wizard) is the Morning Line favorite, finishing 2nd in the Vosburgh (G2) over the Aqueduct dirt course. Picks up a new jockey. Should sit a stalking trip with fast early fractions with a number vying for the lead out of the Gulfstream shoot. Needs to get in the mix early to win.

2.   Howbeit (Secret Circle) has done most of his racing on the west coast. Changed trainers to run at Churchill Downs. Based at Tampa Bay. Is a closer that needs the field to back-up for him to be in the money. Not likely.

3.   Scaramouche (Munnings)  won a grade two sprint at PARX in 2022. Has yet to show that form since. Hall of Fame jockey Johnny Velazquez takes the mount as he did in winning the PARX race. Not likely to repeat that effort here.

4.   Winfromwithin  (Into Mischief) seems to like the lead right out of the gate. Has had some success at this level. He gets a new jockey, Saez, who is comfortable with a front-running style. Tries dirt sprint after running mostly on the turf at longer distances. Needs to get in front and improve his position to win this one. Not likely.

5.   Hurricane J (Nyquist) tried Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in 2022, finishing 7^th behind Forte. Picked up a new trainer this fall who showed him the Winner’s Circle at Gulfstream Park. Gets weight from the other eight. He gets a new jockey, Irad Ortiz, which highlights the connections’ desire to win. Advantage. May duel for early lead. Not sure. Maybe.

6.   Dreaming of Kona (Fast Anna)  has had some luck at Gulfstream. Tried graded stakes races four times finishing out-of-the-money in all four. Not fast enough to compete with these and win. May be in the bottom of exotic tickets.

7.   Gilmore (Twirling Candy) seems competitive at this level. Working bullets for this race. Just missed in the Bayshore with jockey Jose Ortiz up who replaces his brother and Johnny Velazquez for this race. Should be sitting right off the pace for kick in the stretch. Big chance to win.

8.   Long Range Toddy (Take Charge Indy) is 2-for-2 over the Gulfstream dirt--- 7 and 8 furlongs. Jockey, Jaramillo, knows Gulfstream course and should continue to perform well on it. The numbers point in his direction. Could win.

9.   Sibelius (Not This Time) won this race last year and is back to repeat. His speed and form figures have regressed since last spring. Working nicely at Palm Meadows and retains Alvarado who got him in the Winner’s Circle when he was at the top of his game. Not sure if he is ready for this race.

 

Analysis

The race can unfold in a few ways. If the track favors speed, the race may be over when the gate opens. If it plays to closers and the pace breaks down, they will be rocketing down the stretch. The former should be the case.

The question is which of the pace setters will prevail. Here is how I think the race will finish.

8. Long Range Toddy (8-1) 

7. Gilmore (4-1)

1. Great Navigator (3-1)

6. Dreaming of Kona (15-1)

Handigamble: $100

$20 Win and Place –Long Range Toddy (#8) ---$40

$5 Exacta Box --------#8, #7, #1---------------------$30

$1 Trifecta Box-------#8, #7, #1, #6-----------------$24

$2 Exacta Rev Wheel:  #8, #7, #1  with #6--------$ 6

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Los Alamitos Futurity

 Moonlit Sonata could make music in Los Alamitos Futurity

By: Rowan Ward, Blinkers-Off

West Coast juveniles take the spotlight in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). The 1 1/16-mile race offers a purse of $200,000 as well as 10-5-3-2-1 Road to the Kentucky Derby points to its top five qualifying finishers. However, in the field of six, only three horses are eligible for points: trainer Bob Baffert remains ineligible for the Run for the Roses, meaning his trio can earn purse money but not Derby points.

This race is the successor to the Hollywood Futurity, which was moved to Los Alamitos after Hollywood Park closed. Though only one horse has won both this race and the Kentucky Derby, 1997 winner Real Quiet, six starters in this race have gone on to win the Run for the Roses. However, that hasn’t happened since 2005 when Giacomo, who had finished second at Hollywood the year before, blew up the Kentucky Derby tote.

However, that does not mean recent winners of this race haven’t shined in other major races. Shared Belief (2013) emerged as one of the best horses in his class at ages two, three, and four. Into Mischief (2007), Pioneerof the Nile (2008), and Violence (2012) have gone on to be important stallions. And 2022 winner, Practical Move went on to win the Santa Anita Derby (G1) this year.

Let’s take a look at the field.

 

 

 

Trainer Tim Yakteen won the Los Alamitos Futurity in 2022 with Practical Move, a horse who had four races underneath him before making the grade in this race. His entrant this year, Moonlit Sonata, brings in a completely different profile: he was ignored at 33-1 in a maiden special weight at Del Mar on November 25, he tracked a modest pace for the distance and kicked away to win by 2 ½ lengths. That came at 6 ½ furlongs, meaning he stretches to a route for the first time in the Los Alamitos Futurity. However, he is bred top and bottom for this step up in trip. And he should be able to be tactical enough to make a run on a host of speedsters like Wynstock, Wine Me Up, and Stronghold. He has the upside to step up at a price.

Another who should be coming late is Coach Prime. He is not quite as appealing as Moonlit Sonata both because Coach Prime likely goes favored and because Moonlit Sonata stands to be a little better positioned. However, Coach Prime can benefit from the pace set by stablemates Wynstock and Wine Me Up as well as the Phil D’Amato-trained Stronghold. It also plays in Coach Prime’s favor that not only is he bred for a two-turn trip, but both his races have come over two-turn trips, and he woke up at a mile on dirt.

Especially with short fields, it can also help to identify the best of the speed. After all, if the track is playing in favor of frontrunners on race day, being the best of the speed is often a ticket to the winner’s share of the purse.

In this case, that honor goes to Wine Me Up. The son of Vino Rosso battled up front and kept on to break his maiden on debut and finished second to Muth in the American Pharoah. Muth came back to run second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) next out; Wine Me Up finished a well-beaten eighth in that same race. This is a less difficult field. And, though Wine Me Up has yet to prove himself at two turns, he is certainly bred for two turns and for improving with time and experience, meaning he has upside. He also can get a good, clean trip outside of the other speed, and he proved on debut that he doesn’t have to have a soft and lonely lead to run a winning race.

Selections:

#1 Moonlit Sonata (5-1)

#5 Coach Prime (2-1)

#6 Wine Me Up (5-2)