Handicapper's Corner: 2022 Cigar Mile Handicap (G1)

 Grade One winners vie in Cigar Mile 

By: Robert Marks (@theyreinthegate)

Saturday at 3:43 pm Eastern time is the $750,000 Grade 1 Cigar Mile Handicap, for 3-year-olds and upward on Dirt at 1 mile held at Aqueduct Racetrack. Formerly the NYRA Mile this race is named after the great Horse Cigar, who won many a race on the NYRA circuit. 

Originally a 7-horse field, there will now be a field of 6 as O Besos had to scratch due to the prohibition of horses shipping in from Churchill Downs, due to an equine virus outbreak. 

 

 

Here is your 6-horse field with Morning Line Odds:

 Here is a look at who we will be betting:

Running out of the 2 hole, Zandon is your morning line favorite (1-1).  Trained by Chad Brown, with Joel Rosario the Jockey, this 3-year-old comes off a 2nd place finish in the Pennsylvania Derby. Always competitive with 8 placings in 8 starts including 3rd in both the Kentucky Derby and The Travers, it’s hard to figure he won’t also be in the top 3 Saturday. He is a stalker type horse who likes to close.  Will there be enough speed up front for Zandon to close on.  He will not be left off my exotics but at 1-1 I’ll pass on any win bets as there is no value.

An interesting entry is 9-2 White Abarrio with Irad Ortiz aboard. Joseph Saffie Jr is your trainer. After back-to-back wins in this years Holy Bull and Florida Derby this 3-year-old grey colt has run mainly disappointing efforts including 16th in the Kentucky Derby, 7th in the Haskell and 5th in the PA Derby. On the Plus side he is well rested (over 2 months) and maybe that’s what this horse needed, having run 6 times between February and September. He has had 3 recent bullet workouts and did win his only mile effort leading all the way back last October. Irad Ortiz will have this horse much closer to the pace then usual and he has the speed figures to last the mile. I think he will be mostly ignored at the betting windows and will be a must use if he stays at 9-2 or higher.

Elder Statesman Mind Control, at 6 years old, runs out of the 7th hole at 5-2 morning line odds. No strange to Aqueduct, this Horse has 4 wins and 2 seconds out of 7 starts at the Big A grounds.  His last effort was a 2nd place effort in the Parx Dirt Mile (placed 1st via DQ as he was brushed in the stretch run). This horse is best at the mile distance, having 4 wins and 1 second out of 5 mile starts. It’s already been announced this is his last start, and you know Fellow veteran Johnny Velazquez is primed to bring this horse one last hurrah.

 

Analysis

With no real speed up front I see Mind Control pushing the pace and in front coming around the final turn with a stretch run duel with White Abarrio, and Zandon closing fast. For value, I’ll bet that White Abarrio finally changes his recent bad fortune and comes out on top.

 

Handigambling

 $100 dollar Budget

$50-win White Abarrio

$2 Trifecta Box: White Abarrio, Mind Control, Zandon (total bet $48)

$2 place: Mind Control