Handicapper's Corner: Red Smith Stakes (G2)

 Veteran turf horses in Red Smith Spotlight

By: Anthony Falbo, The Turk

 

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog.  I'd like to thank the good people at The Thorofan and the Handicappers Corner for inviting me to share my thoughts with you today.

This is not a race or a track I would generally handicap.  It's not that I'm biased, I just find the variables too many and the motivations of the connections too varied regarding the starting of turf runners in a northern climate track in late November.  

You have the tight inner track, the weather, the horses who are building towards next year, the horses who are looking for one last kick at the can, the grizzled vets who are on their way to amassing 50 starts in their careers.  You get it all post Breeders' Cup, late season racing.  All that said, what these types of races are good for to me is isolation:  Almost all the runners are outside of the hype and BS marketing that can skew a horse players opinion of a race, and  very few of them I have played this year.  It allows me in the isolation of just my red gel pen annotated DRF Formulator PPs (an unpaid endorsement)  to study the data and bet purely on what I see on paper and a bit of video.


The NYRA website is one of the more friendly horse player track sites in my opinion.  You'll find scratches and changes and track condition here.  The weather Friday/Saturday is rainy and windy early Friday but then drying up.  I'm going to handicap like the turf is good.   I can't imagine it getting much better or worse but I'll take note of track conditions at end of today.  This is an inner turf race which was unveiled in late 2018 replacing the "all weather" inner track.  The turns are tight and the field is big.   Can't say that helps the trips that can be expected.  The race does not start in the chute.

I don't consider myself a coward, but this field  scares me as a handicapper.  When I was a high volume handicapper, I would have spent very little time on this race and just handicapped the tote board, putting prices on the 3rd or 4th horses on the board the public liked, longer than 6-1.  

 

As a turf race handicapper, there are a few variables here I'd rather not deal with: Trainer motivations for this race at this track, current condition of the runners, the track itself.   As far as motivation, its a $300K G2, so I get it, but these are not the stars of the barn, these are horses that were possibly considered from Breeders' Cup, didn't perform as expected in their final tune-ups, as well as grizzled veterans, and horses that tried dirt with limited success and this is next stop.  Variables.  Variables are what put the betting capital more and more at risk. 

So if you are going to invest time handicapping a race like this,  bet construction has to weigh on your mind pretty early.  Right off the bat I see two Chad Brown horses entered. I've seen this movie too many times and I know how it ends is my first thought, but upon close inspection, neither a iron pipe locks.  Highest Honor from the 1 post has one turf win, has fared poorly in big field/outside post positions last few out.   

 

Balthus is hard to tell at the end of 4 YO campaign where his career is headed.  These two will get bet, deservedly so, but I'm thinking my bet construction is against them.  

 

Can I find a foil?  Soldier Rising isn't exactly a dark horse, but I like him to win enough to single him, anchor my bets to a single and then look for value in my exacta and Tri plays. Conditioner Clement cuts back just slightly from last time out, a 4th place finish here in G1 Turf Classic.  5-6 in the money in 2022. 12 of 14 in the money lifetime turf, 4 wins in 14 turf starts. Ortiz is up.  

If I can anchor to Soldier Rising, what do I want in exacta? Of the two Brown horses I'd rather see neither finish in Place, but I might hedge with Balthus if I'm hedging and tote board odds favor the payout, otherwise I like a group of Astronaut, Temple, Mooney Love and Reigning Spirit, tossing Highest Honor. 

Astronaut is a 5 YO Quality Road, workmanlike. 6 of 13 lifetime starts Place or Show.  Conditioner Albertrani 0 for 32 Graded Stakes on rolling one year basis.  Temple ran past 23-1 odds into Place  last time out in the G3 marathon Sycamore at KEE.  4 of 6 starts in the money in 2022 for the gelded  son of Temple City.   

 

Mooney Love is intriguing.  Mott's been looking for the right spot for the 4 YO with one North American win, a $115K N1X at SAR last time out in late July.  Finally Albert Stall's Reigning Spirit  won last start and is training well and could provide some late deep close sizzle.  

I'm guilty of grinding these types of affairs into dust with the handicapping effort I expend, but I'm going to keep this one simple:  I'm really betting against Chad Brown, tossing 4 of the 12, and building an exacta hinged around a singled Win for Soldier Rising.  

$2 Exacta 9 OVER 4-8-6-3 is $8.  Have fun friends, Turk Out!