Handicapper's Corner: 2022 Chilukki Stakes (G3)

Royalty Takes the Chilukki Stakes

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan

Chilukki was the champion 2-year-old filly in 1999. Racing 17 times with 11 wins and in-the-money percentage of 82%. The Chilukki Stakes (GIII) named after her was first run in 1986. 

The 2022 edition has seven horses entered.

 

 

Let’s look at the field:

1.      Coach (Commissioner) is working nicely for this race off a 45-day layoff. She has demonstrated that she can run well after a lay off. She likes to sit just off the pace hoping for early pace which is questionable in this race.

 

2.      Mariah Princess (Ghostzapper) owns the early speed and retains jockey Garcia who has guided her to an in the money finish 5 out of her 7 starts. Best chance to win is to steal the race on the front end. Maybe?

 

3.      Center Aisle (Into Mischief) has won at this level, but not at this distance. Working nicely. May have the strongest closing ability of the group, if she can hold on for the last furlong.

 

4.      Ice Orchard (Super Saver) is at the right level but seems a little too slow for this race. The only 3-year-old in the race. Get 3-pound advantage on the other six. Will require a contested pace to show her best. Not likely here.

 

5.      Empire House (Empire Maker) is working bullets for this race and gets a new jockey (Talamo). Coming off a solid second in last race—a grade 2 event on the west coast. May need one after the layoff.

 

6.      She Can’t Sing (Bernardini) has been traveling the grass courses for the last eight races. Gets new jockey (Hernandez). Has a bullet workout on the dirt coming into this race. Lost this race last year by 17 lengths to Obligatory. Likes Churchill Downs. If she takes to the dirt and is ready after 2 months off, she could be dangerous.

 

7.      Liberty M D (Constitution) boasts a 4-for-5 record at Churchill Downs. Keeps regular rider, Leparoux. Has won at a mile distance. Distance is Ok. Maybe?

 

With only one horse showing a desire for early speed the pace could be slow to the top of the stretch. Jockey Martin Garcia has the race in his hands. If the pace falls apart the likely winner will be sitting in mid pack. Closers may have difficulty at the wire. The weather in Louisville is predicted to sunny with a temperature around 38 degrees—perfect day for the race.

 

Here is how the race should finish:

2. Mariah Princess (3-1)

1.  Coach (9-5)

3. Center Aisle (6-1)

7. Liberty M D (8-1)

 

Handigamble:

$2 Trifecta Box ---#1, #2, #3 and #7 -- $48

$2 Exacta Box ---#1, #2 and #3    ------$12

$40 to win ---# 2 ---------------$40