Longshot could shine in the Starlet
By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power
Bob Baffert is in an excellent position to earn his sixth straight victory in the Starlet since his charges account for about half of the seven-horse field.
The Starlet is carded as race 9, closing the card. Post time is 4:30 PT.
Let’s take a look at the field.
Doinitthehardway — Still a maiden after three starts, Street Sense’s daughter’s best finish was her last, when she stretched to a mile at Del Mar. Out of a full sister to Haskell hero Paynter, this Baffert trainee is bred to improve with maturity and distance, and her Brisnet speed ratings reflect this. She may contest the pace from the rail, or Ramon Vazquez may settle her directly behind the speed.
Classymademoiselle — The most experienced in the field with six starts under her girth, this daughter of Malibu Moon earned a maiden victory through DQ of the winner in her second-to-last start, in an off-the-turf mile event at Del Mar. Otherwise, Malibu Moon’s daughter hasn’t finished in the same zip code as her rivals.
Faiza — The least experienced with a sole start to her name, the daughter of hot first-crop sire Girvin beat a field of maidens by 3 ½ lengths, getting six furlongs in a sharp 1:09.28 at Del Mar. The second-place finisher returned to win. Faiza’s dam is a half-sister to the Baffert-trained multiple graded winner Thousand Words. Baffert has a 33% win rate with the maiden to stakes angle.
Fast and Shiny — Hoping for better results, Baffert switches Bernardini’s daughter back to dirt after two “not bad” beats on turf. Fast and Shiny had excuses in the Surfer Girl Stakes, she was rank and had to steady, but missed by only 2 ½ lengths. In her next turf outing, she had a comfortable lead, but weakened in the stretch, and finished sixths, 3 ½ lengths behind. Although she captured her debut on dirt, she wasn’t fast or shiny in the Del Mar Debutante, finishing 20 lengths out of it. Maybe she can rebound, but she’ll have to improve to win.
Uncontrollable —She’s the only multiple stakes-placed contestant in the field and had minor trouble in all three starts. She just missed the victory in the Chandelier (G2) by three-quarters length. The McCarthy trainee’s speed ratings have improved in every outing, and she meets a softer group in the Starlet.
Pride of the Nile — She’s won two of her last three starts and her speed figures have risen in every outing, despite some trouble, and in her debut, which was against winners, she closed to finish furth, making up almost four lengths in the stretch. Sounds good, right? Not so fast. All three starts were over the lawn. By Pioneerof the Nile out of a multiple Grade 3-winning dirt mare, Pride of the Nile should handle dirt, as her siblings have. Leandro Mora, pitch hitting for his suspended boss Doug O’Neil, has one winner and two third-place finishers from eight starters when he takes over.
Blessed Touch — After winning her second start by 8 ¾ lengths, Blessed Touch followed up with a second-place finish in the Desi Arnez Stakes. While she wasn’t a match for the winner, Girven’s daughter was 6 ½ lengths clear of the show horse. Fillies often regress slightly after their initial victory and step up after that.
Analysis
This isn’t the strongest group assembled for a Grade 1 race, in fact, it reads more like an allowance for non-winners of three races.
In the last decade, 70% of the winners won or placed in a stakes in their previous start, four of them in the Desi Arnez Stakes. Four favorites won, and two were second.
Most of this field are pacesetters/pressers. The sole stalker is Uncontrollable, and she gained with every step in the stretch in the Chandelier Stakes but ran out of ground.
If Pride of the Nile can transfer her form to dirt, she’ll be dangerous.
Selections
5. Uncontrollable (4-1)
6. Pride of the Nile (9-2)
7. Blessed Touch (5-1)
1. Doinitthehardway (7-2)
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