Handicapper's Corner: 2022 Fayette Stakes (G2)

Competitive Field in Fayette Stakes

By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper

This is the last stakes race on the closing day of the Keeneland fall meet. Don’t stress plenty more next week for the Breeders Cup. Weather should be ideal for the race. Small but competitive field with six going the nine furlongs.

 

#1 West Will Power (4-1) – Cox/Rosario – Since moving to the Cox barn, he’s lost by a head in August in his first race since September 2021, rested for some 55 days, and won on the front from post #1 going this distance. The tactic of front running may suit well in this field. Rosario is pretty handy and doling out fractions and getting the job done. I like him as a top pick.

#2 Chess Chief (10-1) – Stewart/Gutierrez – An old War Horse with nearly a million to his name, his speed figures so declined form. He has not done well at this distance. It’s unlikely we’ll see him in the money. Could be in the bottom of a Superfecta.

#3 Fulsome (3-1) – Cox/Geroux – Eight-time winner with one point one million in the bank. His recent run in the AckAck was not so good coming off a break, but this is a second start, and improvement is likely. He has won at this distance and is one for two trying. He seems to prefer one and a sixteenth and likes to move at the top of the stretch to close the deal. I’ll play him in exactas with his stablemate.

#4 First Captain (6/5) – McGaughey/Saez – The odds maker likes this late closing four-year-old. Can’t blame them. He’s been in the money eight of his nine races. He’s been going ten furlongs in his last two against stiff competition. No question he’s a contender here, but the price seems prohibitive. I’ll hook him up with the Cox runners hoping to get a bargain.

#5 King Fury (8-1) – McPeek/Hernandez – Loved him in the Lexington last year and made a lot of cash. But he’s not paid me since. This is a very strong team together, but the colt is not my choice to compete with those above. Bottom of a Trifecta/Superfecta.

#6 Last Samurai (6-1) – Lukas/Gaffalione – Not sure what to make out of his performances since coming to Lukas’ barn because even with the same jockey, his winning ways have faded. He gets the current top jockey at the meet (it could change by the time we race), and he’s coming off a 64-day break. The works look good. He’s the other speed in the race if he is in good form. I’m thinking Tyler is going to be somewhat close to the pace. I give him a chance to win but prefer him in second.

Handigambling – If the favorite is the winner, there is little money in this race. I prefer others and will lay the favorite.

$5 Exacta Box – 1, 3, 6     $30

$3 Trifecta – 1 with 3, 4, 6 with 3, 4, 6    $18

$1 Superfecta – 1 with 3, 4, 6 with 3, 4, 6 with All    $18

If you believe the favorite is the winner, here is the bet:

$2 Superfecta – 6 with 1, 3, 4, with 1, 3, 4, with All   $36

Handicapper's Corner: 2022 Hill Prince Stakes (G2)

Hill Prince Stakes Picks n' Plays

By Robert Marks (@theyreinthegate)

 

Saturday at 3:48 pm Eastern time is the $300,000 Grade 2 Hill Prince Stakes, for 3-year-olds on the Turf at 1 and 1/8 miles, held at Aqueduct Racetrack. The meet is called Belmont at Aqueduct as the usual Fall season at Belmont Park has been shifted by NYRA to Aqueduct due to construction and renovation at Belmont. So, if you are planning a trip just make sure you go to the Big A and not Belmont. 

Here is your 10-horse field with Morning Line Odds:

 

Hall of Fame Trainer Claude “Shug” McGaughey III has 2 bullets in his gun as he enters 4-1 Limited Liability and 7-2 Celestial City.  Of the two we like Limited Liability.  He has progressed slowly but surely, breaking his maiden at Keenland in April, finishing 3^rd in the Pennine Ridge Stakes, 7^th in the Belmont Derby, then 3^rd last month in the Virginia Derby. Throughout his speed figures have increased. With Turf it always depends on lane traffic but having Jose Ortiz on board, who has been on this horse for every race will help. This horse is a closer.

 

An interesting entry is 9-2 Mackinnon with Flavian Prat aboard. Chad Brown will train this horse for the 1^st time, taking over from Doug O’Neill who trained him out west where he had an impressive 2-year-old racing year including 3^rd in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf. He has had a so-so 3-year-old campaign starting on the dirt before going back to the Turf. I think a change of scenery and having Chad Brown take over will result in a top 3 placing for this colt.

 

Chad Brown also saddles Unanimous Consent with Manny Franco aboard at morning line odds of 6-1. He has 3 wins out of 5 starts as well as a win at Aqueduct in the Woodhaven Stakes last April. He was 4^th last time out, finishing just behind Limited Liability in the Virginal Derby with an impressive speed figure. I believe the mile and an eight will prove to be his preferred distance.

 

As far as the rest of the field Celestial City can’t be ignored, especially being in the one hole.  He is more of an early pace setter and from this position might just go and try to hang on. He gets Jose Lezcano aboard.

 

I see Celestial City in front coming around the final turn with a stretch run of MacKinnon, Unanimous Consent and Limited Liability coming from behind these three to nip them at the wire.

 

Bets: $100 dollar Budget

$50-win Limited Liability

$2 Trifecta Box: Limited Liability, Mackinnon, Celestial City, Unanimous Consent (total bet $48)

$2 place: MacKinnon

Handicapper's Corner: 2022 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1)

 Euros Could Take Command of the Q.E. II Challenge Cup

By: Rowan Ward, Blinkers-Off

The most prestigious turf race for three-year-old fillies in the United States is the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1) at Keeneland. The $600,000 race covers 1 1/8 miles on the lawn, and the 2022 edition drew a field of seven, all but one of whom are winners at the stakes level.

The most important recent winner of the Queen Elizabeth II is Rushing Fall (2018), who had won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) the year before and went on to be named the champion turf female of 2020. Rushing Fall finished a good second in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf during her championship year — just a head in front of Harvey’s Lil Goil, who returned quickly from winning the 2020 Queen Elizabeth II to run third in that same race.

2012 winner Dayatthespa also went on to become a champion. She went on to win the 2014 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf (G1) as well as the First Lady (G1) that year, cementing top turf mare honors.

Saturday, October 15 — Keeneland

Race 9: Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup, three-year-old fillies, one and one eighth miles on the dirt, post time 5:16pm EDT

Typically, European-based speed does not appear to prevail in an American horse race.  But it might in a short field with no other speed. That is what we get here with #7 Paris Peacock, the improving runner who Jessica Harrington brings over from Ireland for American-based owners Glen Hill Farm.

She tracked right off the pace two back when breaking her maiden in a listed race at Gowran, and then was forward early before settling back and re-rallying when winning a Group 3 at Gowran last out.

Both of those wins came at 1 3/16 miles, raising the question of whether 1 1/8 miles is just too short, though she is an improving type who should get a pace advantage in this spot. Especially with high-percentage American rider Florent Geroux aboard, it appears Paris Peacock found the right spot.

 

#5 Bellabel won the Blue Norther earlier this year tracking a downright pedestrian pace and opening up late, and that race was only a flat mile. She is an even better horse now than she was so early this year, as shown in her two most recent starts. Yes, she was a clear second in her only nine-furlong try, but that came behind Spendarella, a proper Group 1 horse who ran second at Royal Ascot earlier this year. That is plenty of class to take to this spot, and with her tactical speed, she should be able to carve a trip.

 

Trainer Chad Brown has been a force in the QEII in recent years. He has won the race four times total, all in the last ten years, including three out of the last four runnings. This year, he sends out both #6 McKulick and #2 Gina Romantica.

 

Between the two, odds-on morning-line chalk McKulick is the more class-proven. However, her better form against class horses has come with more pace in front of her and going a longer distance. Her class has a good chance to get her into the picture underneath, though she sill be underlaid in the win pool.

 

Gina Romantica has class to prove, as her only stakes win came in restricted company. However, this Into Mischief half to Gift Box has some upside on the stretch out to her longest distance yet, and she showed some ability to adapt closer to the pace when clearing her first-level allowance condition over dirt back in May. In a race that may come down to tactics, this gives Gina Romantica an interesting win chance at a better price than her stablemate.

 

Selections:

#7 Paris Peacock (10/1)

#5 Bellabel (5/1)

#2 Gina Romantica (7/2)

 

Longshot:  #1 California Angel (15/1) made her name coming from the clouds last year in the Jessamine (G2) over this course, but she showed an interesting new dimension in the Dueling Grounds Oaks on September 5. She did not run on the pace, but she did not drop as far back as she had been. Perhaps part of that was a function of the distance of that last race, as the 1 5/16 miles were longer than she had ever gone.

However, this 1 1/8 miles is still longer than she has gone in any start other than that one, suggesting she may not have to drop all the way back. With that, her strong effort at Keeneland last year, and her ability to handle just a bit of cut in the ground (a distinct possibility with some rain in the forecast Saturday), California Angel may be a live price horse once again.