Handicapper's Corner: 2022 Pennsylvania Derby (G1)

Cyberknife and Taiba renew rivalry in Pennsylvania Derby

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

The $1,000,000 Pennsylvania Derby is the final Grade 1 event strictly for 3-year-olds.

Since 2010, only three Pennsylvania Derby winners have hit the board in the Breeders' Cup Classic, although Morning Line (2010) was second in the Dirt Mile.

 

 This year, fans are hoping for another showdown between the Haskell (G1) top finishers Cyberknife and Taiba.  

A field of eleven will contest the 1 1/8-mile event. The Pennsylvania Derby is billed as race 12 of the 13-race card, and post time is 6:10 p.m.

Let's take a look at the top contenders.

 

Taiba (5-2) has been brilliant in every start except the Kentucky Derby (G1), which was too much too soon. He missed the Haskell (G1) victory by a head in his first start since rejoining the Baffert Barn and only his second time traveling. This colt is still learning, and he can turn the tables on Cyberknife with a better trip.

 

Cyberknife (3-1) has won or placed in eight of ten-lifetime starts, including a "best of the rest" finish in the Travers (G1) behind Epicenter. The seasoned veteran has won or placed at six different tracks and has raced almost every month since last September. Practically unheard of for modern-day stakes horses. The Brad Cox trainee will be tough to beat.

 

Zandon (5-1) has a win, two seconds, and a third in four attempts at 1 1/8 miles. He also finished just a nose behind Cyberknife in the Travers. Zandon has tactical speed; he can press the pace or close from last and has never finished off the board. The Chad Brown trainee can pull the upset if Taiba and Cyberknife knock each other out.

 

Tawny Port (6-1) is a legitimate Grade 3-type. He won the Ohio Derby and Lexington Stakes but has finished behind Zandon three times. He'll need to improve to beat the top three but is capable of a lower exotics spot.

 

White Abarrio (8-1) was the big horse at Gulfstream Park last winter. After his 20-length defeat in the Kentucky Derby, he's managed a second place finish against Grade 3 company, and had no answer in the Haskell, bested 34 lengths by Cyberknife after a wide trip. He'll get another wide trip here, and I predict a similar result.

Skippylongstocking (10-1) improved over the summer and earned his first graded stakes trophy in the West Virginia Derby (G3). He's finished ahead of We the People twice and Simplification once. Not a top-ranked horse, but capable of hitting the board.

 

Simplification (10-1) was at the top of his game in Florida's triple crown preps, and he surprised with a four-place finish in the Kentucky Derby. His speed ratings are average, and he runs his race; however, many of the horses he's competed against are improving while he's stayed the same. Additionally, 1 1/8 miles is a touch too far for the son of Not This Time.

 

We the People (12-1) had his moment of glory in the Peter Pan (G3), beating a poor field by ten lengths. However, since then, the free-running pacesetter hasn't been able to hold off the likes of Cyberknife and Skippylongstocking.

 

Naval Aviator (20-1) has hit the board in five of seven races against claiming and allowance types. Tapit's son takes a considerable class hike, although his speed figures fit. He might be worth a longshot wildcard play for exotics.

 

B Dawk (20-1) and Icy Storm (30-1) are allowance types and would have to run a lifetime best to hit the board.

 

Analysis

We the People may try to set a soft pace but may be hounded by longshots B Dawk, Icy Storm, and possibly Skippylongstocking. However, Cyberknife and Taiba won't be too far off the pace, and Mike Smith and Florent Geroux will keep an eye on each other.

I'm giving the nod to Taiba this time around. He's lightly raced and still learning. Zandon and Tawny Port could fill out the exotics.

 

8. Taiba (5-2)

5. Cyberknife (3-1)

1. Zandon (5-1)

7. Tawny Port (6-1)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Handicapper's Corner: Woodbine Mile (G1)

 Woodbine Mile Rivals Cruisin' for a Breeders' Cup Spot 

By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman   

Get your passports ready folks, we are crossing into Canada for our ThoroFan race of the week, the 26^th running of the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile.

Contested over the world-renowned E.P. Taylor turf course, the $1 million event is part of the Breeders' Cup ‘Win and You're In' Challenge Series. Under the terms of the series, the winner is entitled to a fees-paid berth into the Breeders’ Cup Mile, to be run on November 5 at Keeneland.

A solid mix of eleven North American and International turf horses make up this year’s edition of the Mile, including the defending champ of the race, a Breeders’ Cup winner, a two-time Canadian Horse of the Year, a quartet of Irish-breds and a pair of Brazilian-breds. In addition, five Hall-of-Fame trainers representing the U.S. and Canada will saddle half of the field.

Post time for the Woodbine Mile is scheduled for 5:35pm

Locally based Town Cruise, took last year’s Woodbine Mile field wire-to-wire, giving trainer Brandon Greer, the biggest win of his career. The 7-year-old gelding has fashioned a record of 6-2-1 from 17 career starts. Daisuke Fukumoto, who has been aboard for the last seven races, including last year's victory, retains the mount on Saturday.

 

Modern Games (IRE) makes his first appearance back in North America since his memorable Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf triumph last fall. The three-year old colt is versatile and has demonstrated his class both internationally and in Europe. The 3-year-old son of Dubawi, who has record of 5-2-1 from 10 starts, won four straight races beginning last September through to this May. Trained by Charlie Appleby, who has been very successful when shipping into Woodbine, Modern Games has stepped up his performance every time he was given a challenge. The Godolphin owned runner enters the Woodbine Mile off a second-place finish in the Group 1 Sussex Stakes to the unbeaten superstar Baaeed. William Buick will make the trip to ride.

 

Two-time (2020-21) Canadian Horse of the Year, Mighty Heart, will look to get back to the winner’s circle in the Mile. Trained by Canadian Hall of Famer Josie Carroll, the 5-year-old son of Dramedy, who sports a 6-2-5 from 20 lifetime starts, has been blanked in five consecutive races since winning the G2 Autumn Stakes last November at Woodbine. The one-eyed bay will be piloted by Justin Stein.

 

There is a filly in the Mile starting gate and her name is, Wakanaka (IRE). The 4-year-old daughter of Power, who began her career racing in Italy but now resides in the barn of U.S. Hall of Fame inductee, Bill Mott, scored an impressive win back in July in the G2 Dance Smartly Stakes on the E.P. Taylor Turf Course. Her record from 13 career starts is 7-4-1. Manny Franco gets the call.

 

Bringing in a race record of 5-0-1 from 11 starts, War Bomber (IRE), conditioned by Norm McKnight, was claimed in his fourth career start for 25k in August of 2021. The 4-year-old son of War Front has won 3 of 4 turf starts at Woodbine and has also won twice on the Tapeta surface, most recently a 18-1 score in the G3 Seagram Cup last month. Sahin Civaci will be in the irons.

 

The fourth and final Irish-bred horse, Finest Sound, is still seeking his first stakes win. The resume for the 5-year-old son of Exceed, sports a three runner-up finishes in group events, including the Group 1 Jebel Hatta which kicked off his 2022 campaign. The Simon Crisford trainee has recorded a win, two seconds and a third in his past four races and his overall record is 4-5-7 from 20 lifetime races. Andrea Atzeni makes the overseas trip to ride.

 

The Brazilian-bred, Homer Screen, who goes out for Hall-of Fame trainer, Neil Drysdale, won five of his six starts in his native country before heading stateside to compete. The 6-year-old son of Adriano has a 5-1-0 from 10 lifetime races. The late-running chestnut just missed, at 28-1, in the G3 American two back at Santa Anita. Joe Bravo, who was aboard for the horse’s first two U.S. starts is back in the saddle.

 

Ivar (BRZ) is a two-time Breeders' Cup Mile participant who has won 6 races from 12 starts. The 6-year-old son of Agnes Gold arrives in Toronto off a one-length win in track-record time in the Jonathan Schuster Memorial Stakes at Horseshoe Indianapolis. The Paulo Lobo trainee finished third in the 2021 BC Mile at Del Mar and was fourth in the 2020 edition at Keeneland. Connections are hoping for a strong early pace so their runner can utilize his powerful late run. Regular rider Joe Talamo stays aboard.

 

Canadian Hall-of Fame trainer Mark Casse, who won back-to-back editions of the Mile (2016-17), will send out the duo of March to the Arch and Get Smokin. A seven-year-old son of Arch, March to the Arch, is no stranger to Woodbine or the Woodbine Mile. The bay gelding sports an overall record of 8-5-4 from 33 races.

 

March to the Arch was second in the 2020 Woodbine Mile and fourth in last year’s running. The Florida-bred has three stakes’ victories on the Woodbine grass and heads into the Mile off a fourth-place finish in the G2 King Edward Stakes last month. Patrick Husbands will ride.

 

Get Smokin arrives at the $1 million race off a fourth-place finish at Saratoga in the G1 Fourstardave. The five-year old son of Get Stormy took the lead out of the gate and led until the eighth pole before being overtaken. This will be his first start at Woodbine. Rafael Hernadez takes the mount.

 

Legendary Canadian trainer and dual Hall of Famer, Roger Attfield, sends out Shirl’s Speight. The 5-year-old son of Speightstown rode a three-race winning streak from January through April, including a nose victory in G1 Makers Mark Mile at Keeneland. He possesses a 5-0-2 record from a dozen starts, including a win over the E.P. Taylor turf course. The ride goes to Emma-Jayne Wilson.

 

The Woodbine Mile program will also feature the Grade 1 $500,000 Summer Stakes for two-year old colts, the Grade 1 $500,000 Natalma Stakes for two-year old fillies and the Grade 3 $150,000 Seaway Stakes for older fillies and mares.

 

Selections:                                                                                         

1st – #2 Ivar                                                                                            

2nd- #5 Modern Games                                                                         

3rd – #4 Finest Sound

 

Wager: $100 Mythical ThoroFan dollars

$40 win on Ivar - $20 Exacta Box Ivar/Modern Games - $10 Exacta Ivar and Modern Games over Finest Sound

Good luck and as always, Enjoy the race!!

 

 

Handicapper's Corner: Kentucky Downs Turf Sprint (G2)

 Accomplished field vies in KY Downs Turf Sprint

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan

Exiting the two most popular meets, Saratoga and Del Mar, Handicappers’ Corner travels to Franklin, Kentucky for one of the most unusual meets.

Kentucky Downs is a turf only track that races just 7 days a year. Aside from the meet’s duration Kentucky Downs mimics European racing. Its track is strangely oval with up-hill gradation and left and right turns (see diagram). American Thoroughbreds rarely run on such a course. Handicapping races on this course will challenge even the best handicapper.

 

 

This year’s million-dollar purse has attracted a field of 12 with three also eligible for the FanDuel Turf Sprint (G2).

They are an accomplished group with only 5 that have not raced or won in grade one or two races (#3,6,13,14 &15). These are the pretenders. We can set them aside for now.

Six are dropping down from grade-one experience. Aside from one of the AEs there appears to be little speed in the race. The Morning Line Odds are broadly distributed with four in single digits and eight in double digits.

Let’s see if we can separate the contenders from the pretenders. For today we will include in the contenders’ category those with high Beyer figures, In-the-Money in previous grade one or two races, drops in class and turf closing speed.

Based on these criteria the following have emerged:

2. Chewing Gum (Candy Ride) Gets Rosario back but will need to improve to win. Lost twice to the race’s Morning Line favorite, Arrest Me Fed.

7. Gregorian Chant (GB) (Gregorian, IRE) Gets Jose Ortiz for the first time. Working nicely. Another one beaten by the favorite, Arrest Me Fed. Will need to bring his “A” game to win.

8. Bran (FR) (Muhaarar GB) Working nicely for a return to the races after seven weeks off. May need more pace than the race seems to offer. Yet, he is quick in the stretch. Could surprise!

9. Front Run the Fed (Fed Biz) Irad Ortiz bails to ride the favorite. Not a good sign. Finished second in this race in 2020. Finished 7th in this race last year. His experience at Kentucky Downs is positive. Although seems to not have regained previous form to be competitive here.

10. Totally Boss (Street Boss) Geroux returns to the irons after winning this race in 2019. A win here would put Trainer Arnold with the most wins at 3 and to have trained the only horse to win the race twice. Asking a lot, but not he impossible. Exotic play.

12. Arrest Me Red (Pioneer of the Nile) Gets the Saratoga meet leading rider, I. Ortiz. Has a bullet workout. Rested and ready to fire. Honest favorite. His race to lose. The outside post at 6f over this course may be a big hurdle to clear.

The remaining four in the race that could on their best day affect the outcome of the race are:

1. Johnny Unleashed (Colonel John) A repeat of his performance in the Shakertown Stakes (GII) at Keeneland in April could put him in the mix at a big price. Not likely to happen.

4. Charcoal (English Channel) His performance in 2022 both in races and workouts have shown he likes his job. His stalking style just behind the pace may keep him in the money into the stretch. A long shot that could fire-up the deep exotic payoffs.

5. Arzak (Not This Time) A $575,000 sales purchase. His last race in the Troy (GIII) at Saratoga finishing forth to Golden Pal is noteworthy, especially factoring in the poor trip. He was right behind Thin White Duke at the wire who the next time out won the Lucky Coin race adds to his credentials. Trainer and jockey are a good match. Could surprise.

11. Chasing Artie (We Miss Artie) Jockey/trainer pairing at Kentucky Downs offers confidence that the Morning Line odds do not. His closing time in Jaipur (I) after being bumped was impressive. Finishing last against top level horses while closing fast underscores the quality of that race and his performance, regardless how he finished. The Jaipur is a DRF Key race for Arrest Me Fed. Watch out for this overlay.

Analysis

How will they finish?

Unless the 13. Artemus Citylimits, draws in there appears to be a little chance of a hot early pace. Horses strategically placed will have a better chance than others. Drawing wide will pose a significant disadvantage.

 

Here is how they should finish:

5.       Arzak (9-2)

12.     Arrest Me Red (9-5)

8.       Bran (FR) (6-1)

11.     Chasing Artie (15-1)

10.     Totally Boss (12-1)

 

Handigamble

$1 Trifecta Box---#5, #8,#10,# 11 and #12 = $60

$20 win and place on #5 = $40

Good Luck but keep the day job.

 

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2022 Pacific Classic (G1)

Pacific Classic: Can Flightline go the Distance?

By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper

This is Del Mar’s premier race and a Win and You’re In for the Breeders’ Cup Classic. We have a “Super Horse” in contention for the race and he has certainly been impressive, Flightline. Then again it is horse racing….

#5 Flightline (1-5) – Sadler/Prat – No question this four year old has been a wonder. He is four for four going a mile or less, winning by a combined 42 lengths including two Grade I races. He loves to run on the front and leave the others behind.

In the Met Mile on his last outing Flightline got off a step slow and was able to track the leader, pass at the top of the stretch and win by six. There is no doubt that he is fast, given the fractions of his prior races and his ability to maneuver, and looks good on the videos with a very smooth stride.

Flightline’s training regimen has been a combination of bullet speed works mixed with some longer 6 and 7 furlong works. The only drawback is he is not proven at the distance. However, both his sire and dam have gone the distance and placed in the money. I expect he is ready to make a strong effort here. The favorite by everyone’s estimations.

 

#2 Country Grammer (4-1) – Baffert/Velazquez – He is two for three at the distance and undefeated with Baffert.   In his first start off of the layoff, the Dubai World Cup hero finished second in the San Diego Handicap (G2) to Royal Ship. Country Grammar shortened up and carried five more pounds than the winner.

Country Grammer is the biggest money earner on this stage. His training has been the patented Baffert 6 furlong works with a speedy 5 in preparation for the longer race. I expect he will track the pace and look for a break in Flightline’s armory of speed. Johnny V has been on a roll (broke 1000 wins at Saratoga) and is quite crafty. I’d say he’s the number 1 contender to Flightline.

 

#4 Express Train (12-1) – Shirreffs/Espinoza – This guy intrigues me. Second biggest money earner here today. Since Espinoza got on him he has won three of four. However, Express Train lost to Stilletto Boy in his last start in the Californian (G2) carrying 4 more pounds than the winner, and was returning from a  45+ day break after winning the Santa Anita Handicap where he beat Stilleto Boy going a mile and a quarter.

Express Train’s speed rating of 105 is the best of the field at today’s distance. His routing and closing speeds are solid. His work tab during his 126 day layoff has been ‘old school ‘, steady and building. If he shows his best speed and tactics he is a good Longshot at 12-1.

 

#3 Royal Ship (8-1) – Mandella/Smith – For me he is a little less than the two above as a long distance horse. He’s been one and a quarter miles three times and never won. However, he’s finished in the money twice, losing by 4+ lengths last time and 11 lengths back in last year’s Pacific Classic. I think he has lost a step as a 6-year-old. There is no question that Mike Smith can get the job done if things go his way but, I just don’t have confidence in in this gelding for this spot.

 

#1 Extra Hope (30-1) – Mandella/Baze – I see this one as a toss for the race, although he may have an impact on the early pace. His early digits and his post position say Mandella is going to send him. Tyler likes speed, so unless there is some reason not to use it, he will. Maybe to control the pace? Not one of my contenders but, I’ll stick him underneath in the trifecta.

 

#6 Stilleto Boy (20-1) – Moger/Hernandez – His last win, and the only one since July of 2021, was against Express Train, three back. Since that blinding speedball effort he has done little to improve. His most recent race he lost to Royal Ship and Country Grammer by 6+ in the San Diego. He has had a third place effort at 9 lengths back going this distance against Express Train. His recent effort indicate a downward trend in form. On the bottom.

 

Analysis

It appears we are going to see a very fast pace in this one, probably by Flightline who will play “Catch Me if you Can”. The question is can he do the 44+ then sub 109 and go the distance?

Who will go with him? Stilleto Boy with Hernandez up went nearly that fast in the Californian. The favorite is almost prohibitive for betting other than a Trifecta or Super with some hope of good odds coming in second and third or winning. Good Luck…

 

Handigambling

$8 Trifecta – 5 with 2, 4, 3 with 2, 4, 3   =   $48

$3 Trifecta – 2, 4 with 2, 4, 5, 3 with 2, 4, 5, 3    =   $36

My alternate bet - #4 $10 Win, $9 Exacta 2, 3, 5 with 4  = $37

A $1 Superfecta with the Fav on top will cost $24….   5 with 2, 4 w All w All