Accomplished field vies in KY Downs Turf Sprint
By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan
Exiting the two most popular meets, Saratoga and Del Mar, Handicappers’ Corner travels to Franklin, Kentucky for one of the most unusual meets.
This year’s million-dollar purse has attracted a field of 12 with three also eligible for the FanDuel Turf Sprint (G2).
Six are dropping down from grade-one experience. Aside from one of the AEs there appears to be little speed in the race. The Morning Line Odds are broadly distributed with four in single digits and eight in double digits.
Let’s see if we can separate the contenders from the pretenders. For today we will include in the contenders’ category those with high Beyer figures, In-the-Money in previous grade one or two races, drops in class and turf closing speed.
Based on these criteria the following have emerged:
2. Chewing Gum (Candy Ride) Gets Rosario back but will need to improve to win. Lost twice to the race’s Morning Line favorite, Arrest Me Fed.
7. Gregorian Chant (GB) (Gregorian, IRE) Gets Jose Ortiz for the first time. Working nicely. Another one beaten by the favorite, Arrest Me Fed. Will need to bring his “A” game to win.
8. Bran (FR) (Muhaarar GB) Working nicely for a return to the races after seven weeks off. May need more pace than the race seems to offer. Yet, he is quick in the stretch. Could surprise!
9. Front Run the Fed (Fed Biz) Irad Ortiz bails to ride the favorite. Not a good sign. Finished second in this race in 2020. Finished 7th in this race last year. His experience at Kentucky Downs is positive. Although seems to not have regained previous form to be competitive here.
10. Totally Boss (Street Boss) Geroux returns to the irons after winning this race in 2019. A win here would put Trainer Arnold with the most wins at 3 and to have trained the only horse to win the race twice. Asking a lot, but not he impossible. Exotic play.
12. Arrest Me Red (Pioneer of the Nile) Gets the Saratoga meet leading rider, I. Ortiz. Has a bullet workout. Rested and ready to fire. Honest favorite. His race to lose. The outside post at 6f over this course may be a big hurdle to clear.
The remaining four in the race that could on their best day affect the outcome of the race are:
1. Johnny Unleashed (Colonel John) A repeat of his performance in the Shakertown Stakes (GII) at Keeneland in April could put him in the mix at a big price. Not likely to happen.
4. Charcoal (English Channel) His performance in 2022 both in races and workouts have shown he likes his job. His stalking style just behind the pace may keep him in the money into the stretch. A long shot that could fire-up the deep exotic payoffs.
5. Arzak (Not This Time) A $575,000 sales purchase. His last race in the Troy (GIII) at Saratoga finishing forth to Golden Pal is noteworthy, especially factoring in the poor trip. He was right behind Thin White Duke at the wire who the next time out won the Lucky Coin race adds to his credentials. Trainer and jockey are a good match. Could surprise.
11. Chasing Artie (We Miss Artie) Jockey/trainer pairing at Kentucky Downs offers confidence that the Morning Line odds do not. His closing time in Jaipur (I) after being bumped was impressive. Finishing last against top level horses while closing fast underscores the quality of that race and his performance, regardless how he finished. The Jaipur is a DRF Key race for Arrest Me Fed. Watch out for this overlay.
Analysis
How will they finish?
Unless the 13. Artemus Citylimits, draws in there appears to be a little chance of a hot early pace. Horses strategically placed will have a better chance than others. Drawing wide will pose a significant disadvantage.
Here is how they should finish:
5. Arzak (9-2)
12. Arrest Me Red (9-5)
8. Bran (FR) (6-1)
11. Chasing Artie (15-1)
10. Totally Boss (12-1)
Handigamble
$1 Trifecta Box---#5, #8,#10,# 11 and #12 = $60
$20 win and place on #5 = $40
Good Luck but keep the day job.
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