How to bet the Florida Derby
By: John Caro, ThoroFan handicapper
The Florida Derby is the close of the meet for this season and has some sharp contenders going for the Run for the Roses in five weeks. The forecast is occasional showers in the afternoon with a 40% chance of rain.
There is lots of quality in the field, and all the top jockeys are in the mix, with some local fan jockeys to boot. Should be a good match.
The Favorites
#2 Classic Causeway – Lynch/Ortiz, I – Never out of the money in his five starts with back-to-back wins at the Tampa meet, winning the Sam Davis and the Tampa Bay Derby. Ortiz was aboard for both recent wins, and CC has been on an off track at the Tampa Bay Derby. His pedigree shows he can go the distance without a problem. Never raced at Gulfstream but is a Top contender.
#3 Simplification – Sano/Ortiz, J – Has raced exclusively at Gulfstream with three wins a second and a third-place finish out of his six races. Last seen winning the Fountain of Youth and placed second behind White Abarrio in the Holy Bull in February and winning the Holy Bull in January. The horse for the course. Has never run on an off track but looks like he would handle it. He is tactical as well. Able to track off the pace and close or run near the front. Another top contender.
#7 White Abarrio – Joseph Jr./Gaffalione – He is three for three at Gulfstream and came in third behind Classic Causeway in the Kentucky Jockey Club last fall. His return is his only had one race this year when he won the Holy Bull when he drew away to finish by 4 & 1/2. He’s had 59 days of rest, and it hasn’t gone to waste shooting two bullets out of his five works over the Gulfstream track. Saffie has him where he wants him, and Gaffalione is at home here. Personally, this is my win contender.
#6 Charge It – Pletcher/Saez – The odds makers like this one and gave him 7/2 odds even though his last race was against 9 others in a maiden. Could be the speed? Could be the win by 8+? No question he has talent, and the connections are top shelf. Workouts are speedy. This will be a class test. Yes, he has to be given a consideration for an ITM play.
Might be overlooked
#5 Pappacap – Casse/Gonzalez – A Gun Runner colt who won first out at Gulfstream with Gonzalez up. Moved out West and did well, including a second-place finish in the BC Juvenile and the American Pharaoh losing to Cornich both times. Came back to Fairgrounds and was third behind Epicenter in the LeComte. Up to that point, a willing contender. He had a very tough outing in his last in the Risen Star. Reading Casse’s comments, he put a line through it and is moving on. The colt has had four works since that race, three of which were bullets. I think he is a legitimate longshot here.
#9 O Captain – Delgado/Rosario – Was third in the Fountain of Youth. He was using the late close to get ITM from far off the pace. I don’t this we’ll see that with Rosario, Master of Pace, aboard for this one. Will use him underneath at a big price.
#1 Strike Hard – Williams/Alvarado – Hard trying son of Flashback (Tapit) and the third Grey in the field. He was second to Simplification in the Mucho Macho Man and forth to Classic Causeway in the Sam Davis. Alvarado has been on him twice for a win and a place and is up today. This colt has not been out of the money at Gulfstream in his five races here. Underneath, also at a big price.
Others to toss
#4 King of Truth – Sanchez/Morelos – Not enough speed or class for this group.
#8 Cajun’s Magic – Yates/Rios – Very nice two-year-old campaign, no late kick, and distance is a question.
#10 Clapton – Alvarado/Jaramillo – Save one race he’s been a sprinter. His time and speed over this track at a distance are not in this league. He could be part of the pace, but he draws the outside post. I’m sure Jaramillo will give him his all.
#11 Steal Sunshine – Dibona/Reyes – He’s gone a mile and an eighth and did okay closing into a fast pace, but the class of the others here makes me think that there are others who can do the same better. I’d put him in the bottom of a Superfecta if I was playing one.
Handigambling
The top three contenders are the ones to beat, and you need to decide who is your top pick for the bet below.
Exacta bet – Box the 2-3-7 for whatever you feel is reasonable in your budget.
Here is an example of a Trifecta bet to play, but again, you need to pick your top player for this bet. Mine is the 7, as noted above. Put your top pick where you think he ought to be.
$.50 Trifecta Bet – 7 with 2-3-5 with 2-3-5-1-6-9 cost $7.50 Bet this as many times as you like but always within your budget.
Good Luck.
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