Handicapper's Corner: 2022 Santa Anita Derby (G1)

 Santa Anita Derby may be royalty in the making

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Board Member

The racing suspension facing Bob Baffert will have an unknown impact on this race. Baffert has his fingerprints on five of the horses originally nominated for the race. Of the six that make it to the gate, three came from the Baffert barn, now officially trained by Tim Yakteen (#2-Armagnac, #4 Messier, and #6 Taiba).

 

The weather this week leading up to the Derby will be very warm, floating around 98 degrees. It will cool to 89 degrees on Saturday. The track should be “California-fast.”  

Here is the field:

    1.   Happy Jack (Oxbow) bred and owned by Calumet Farms. He started out good, winning his first try. Then tried graded company in his next two, performing poorly and finishing those two off by a collective 38 lengths. Nevertheless, his works suggest he might be ready for the 9-furlong race. Needs to bring his “A-Game.

    2.   Armagnac (Quality Road) should be quick out of the gate. The biggest question is how long he will last. The 9 furlong seems out of his reach. Although the recent bullet work for 6 furlongs suggests he wants more, these are not enough to give him a chance.

    3.   Forbidden Kingdom (American Pharoah) has the speed to dictate the pace. Bred for the distance. The race could be over just after the gates open. However, the race is loaded with speed setting-up for the front-runners to tire. One thing is for sure is he will not have his way alone on the front end as he did in the San Felipe Stakes.

    4.   Messier (Empire Makers) is one of the four front runners ready to fire. He has shown good energy as the wire approaches indicating he may carry his speed far enough for this race. His long works reinforce that thinking. However, layoffs and the absence of Baffert must be factored in.

    5.   Win the Day (Midshipman) is another O’Neill horse in the race. He took three attempts to break his maiden, not a good sign. His late-running style may be good enough to be in the lower exotics for this race. However, he lacks sufficient speed to compete beyond that point.

    6.   Taiba (Gun Runner) is trying to step into grade one company after only one maiden race in March. His win by 7.5 lengths must be respected. Looks like he wants to lead the pack. A tough task, given all the legitimate speed in the race. The Morning Line odds of 4-1 may signal something. Looks like he needs one before he is ready to compete at this level.

   

    Analysis

Forbidden Kingdom is the fastest and should control the pace. However, three others cannot let him get away and will be pushing him. The pace should be extremely hot. Messier will likely be Forbidden Kingdom’s may foe. The big if is, will O’Neill’s Happy Jack come around to form as anticipated in February? If he does, he will light-up the exotics. 

Here is how they will finish:

    #3.   Forbidden Kingdom (6-5)

    #1.   Happy Jack (20-1)

    #3.   Messier (1-1)

    #6.   Taiba (4-1)

Handigamble

$15 Exacta Box --#1 and #3 and #4 ---$90.00

 $5 Exacta Box ----------- #3 and #4 ---$10.00

 Good luck, but keep the day job!