Louisiana Derby - The 'Center' of it All
By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman
The Grade 2 race, which features a rich purse of $1 million, is an important Kentucky Derby prep worth 100-40-20-10 points to the top four finishers and is the final local prep on the Kentucky Derby trail.
The Louisiana Derby occupies a key strategic position six weeks out from the Kentucky Derby. This is very important for a couple of reasons: 1) It gives horses the option of using the race as a final prep or as a next to last prep. With a points system now controlling who gets into the Kentucky Derby and who doesn’t, trainers can give their horses who may be desperate for points or horses appearing late on the scene that still need points one final chance to get in another prep in between, if they should need it. 2) In 2020, the distance of the Louisiana Derby was increased from 1 1/8 miles to 1 3/16 miles, a sixteenth of a mile shorter than the Kentucky Derby, making it the longest Derby prep and gives horses an excellent opportunity to test their stamina before the first Saturday in May.
Overall, eight stakes’ races, four graded, are on the race card and aside from the Louisiana Derby itself, the other gem of the day is the G2 Fairgrounds Oaks for three-year-old fillies also looking for points to advance to the Kentucky Oaks.
The Louisiana Derby drew a field of nine colts and has a scheduled post time of 5:44 p.m. local time. Let’s take a brief look at the entrants from the rail out.
1 - Silent Power – Gerard Melancon/Scott Greiner – 50-1 - After winning and running second in his first two starts as a juvenile last summer at Prairie Meadows, he’s disappointed in six subsequent races.
2 - Zozos – Florent Geroux/Brad Cox – 8-1 - Registered a blowout 10 1/2-length allowance score at Oaklawn Park last race, his second victory in two starts. Still, a bit of an unknown as he steps into stakes company for the first time.
3 - Call Me Midnight – James Graham/Keith Desormeaux – 6-1 – Took five tries to break his maiden, then finished seventh in G2 Kentucky Jockey Club to close out his juvenile season. A quick pace in the Lecomte gave him the kick he needed to rally to get up by a head over Epicenter in his three-year-old debut. However, the expected pace scenario may work against his deep closing style.
4 - Curly Trail – Colby Hernandez/Dallas Stewart – 30-1 – Longshot runner comes into his graded stakes debut off a maiden score at Oaklawn last month. This level of competition is a whole new world.
5 - Kapuna – Reylu Guiterrez/Brett Calhoun – 8-1 – Scored an impressive maiden win at Oaklawn back in January. Finished second last time out in an entry-level allowance race at Fairgrounds. He’s an improving colt who now gets tested in stakes company
6 - Epicenter – Joel Rosario/Steve Asmussen – 7-5 – Three wins and a second in his last four races and that second-place finish was when he lost by a head in the Lecomte after leading nearly the entire race. Easily cruised to victory in the Risen Star to become one of the leading Derby contenders.
7 - Pioneer of Medina – Tyler Gaffalione/Pletcher – 5-1 – In his 3-year-old bow, he went wire-to-wire in an entry-level allowance affair at Fairgrounds, but when upped in class for the G2 Risen Star, he stalked until the top of the lane and tried to keep up but was passed late and finished fourth.
8 - Galt – Junior Alvarado/Bill Mott – 8-1 – Involved in a scary mishap in F.O.Y. where he fell after a spill on the second turn, escaping injury. Two races back, he gave up the lead in the Holy Bull, but that’s probably not his preferred run style. He seems best with a target in front of him.
9 - Rattle N Roll – Brian Hernandez/Ken McPeek – 6-1 – After his maiden win, he stepped up to the top level with a dominating victory in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity. His showing in the G2 Fountain of Youth three weeks ago was non-descript, but he made have needed the race to knock off the cobwebs after being away since October. He should be fitter now.
ANALYSIS
From a pace standpoint, this race is tailor-made for Epicenter. With his early speed, he should be quick out of the gate and get over to secure the rail for a ground-saving trip like he had in the Risen Star. The only horse with any amount of early foot to challenge is Pioneer of Medina. Jockey Tyler Gafflione has a decision to make. Does he go after Epicenter early and apply pressure, or does he copy his Risen Star performance and stalk, allowing his rival once again to dictate the pace?
If Pioneer of Medina chooses the former, Epicenter has proven he can withstand early pressure and still pull away to win. If he chooses the latter, then Epicenter should be cruising again to victory. In either scenario, the battle will be for the place and show spots.
Rattle And Roll had some traffic issues at the top of the stretch in the F.O.Y., where the short Gulfstream stretch hindered this talented horse from showcasing his biggest attribute, which is an explosive kick. With a race now under his belt, a sizzling five-furlong work last week, and the long Fairgrounds stretch to work with; a more representative showing should now be forthcoming. Not sure if it all adds up to catching Epicenter, but it’s possible. Remember, this horse is a Grade 1 winner who ran down Classic Causeway last fall, and his winning Bris speed figure from that event is second-best in the field.
Galt improved his speed figures in each start prior to the F.O.Y., where he was hampered by an outside post and wide trip to the second turn prior to the spill and had no chance to avoid his fallen stablemate. Before the mishap, he was rallying in tandem with O Captain, who finished third.
Zozos absolutely trashed an allowance field last race, and although he gets a stern class test here, any lightly-raced three-year-old who scores by double digits and could be any kind gets my attention.
Selections
1 - Epicenter
2 - Rattle and Roll
3 – Galt
4 – Zozos
Wagering
Here is how I’ll spend my mythical ThoroFan $100 allotment
$15 Exacta box Epicenter/Rattle N Roll (Cost $30)
$5 Exactas Epicenter/Galt and Zozos (Cost $10)
$2 Trifecta wheel
Epicenter in the win slot over the other three in the second and third slots adding in Call Me Midnight and Pioneer of Medina to the show slot (Cost $24)
$1 superfecta wheel
Epicenter in the win slot with the other three in the second, third and fourth slots, adding in Call Me Midnight and Pioneer of Medina to third and fourth. (Cost $36)
Good luck, and as always, enjoy the race!!
No comments:
Post a Comment