Classic Causeway the one to beat in Tampa Bay Derby
By: Rowan Ward, Blinkers-Off
The $400,000 race drew a field of twelve to compete for not only purse money, but Road to the Kentucky Derby points: 50-20-10-5 for the top four finishers. 50 points is enough to virtually guarantee the winner of the Tampa Bay Derby a spot in the starting gate in Louisville. Even the 20-point haul for the second-place horse is enough to get them most of the way to Kentucky.
One winner of the Kentucky Derby has also won the Tampa Bay Derby: Street Sense swept the pair in 2007. Super Saver, winner of the 2010 Kentucky Derby, also started his season in Tampa. Though he was third beaten half a length in Oldsmar, he finished second in the Arkansas Derby (G1) and peaked in the Run for the Roses. More recently the race produced Belmont Stakes winner Tapwrit (2017), as well as Belmont seconds Destin (2016) and Tacitus (2019).
Classic Causeway won the local prep, the Sam F. Davis, and comes into the Tampa Bay Derby as the horse to beat. He looks like the goods as well. He has never been off the board in four starts. His Sam F. Davis showed that he trained on the way he needed to at three: off a two-and-a-half-month layoff, he was ready to duel and draw off to win by three and three quarters lengths. His foes get tougher here, but with money finishes in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and an ultra-live Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) last year, he can hang with the best of his class. It is also a plus that he can handle a relatively-inside gate in a big field, and that he has already proven he can run well over the love-it-or-hate-it Tampa Bay footing.
Major General begins his three-year-old campaign for trainer Todd Pletcher, who has already proven he will race his live Triple Crown prospects in Tampa. He has trained five Tampa Bay Derby winners, and he also trained Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver, who started his three-year-old year with a close third in this race. Though Major General has not raced since a victory in the Iroquois (G3) last September, the works are encouragingly regular since January. It is also a positive that he has won his two starts from two completely different styles: he broke his maiden on the front end, but rallied from midfield to take the Iroquois. With that versatility, as well as some pedigree to train on at age three, there is a strong argument that we have yet to see the best of Major General.
Shipsational made all four of his juvenile starts against horses bred in the Empire State, and had to prove in the Sam F. Davis that he could hold his own against open company. Making his first start in three and a half months, he proved he belonged, rallying from well off the pace to finish a clear second to Classic Causeway. Of course, he must step forward (or hope the favorite regresses) to turn the tables. But, his New York form suggests that there is plenty more improvement we could see from Shipsational, and his strong races in multiple race shapes also mean he is the sort of horse with the versatility necessary to make his own trip in a large field like this.
Selections
#4 Classic Causeway (8/5)
#8 Major General (9/2)
#9 Shipsational (5/1)
Longshot: If you’re looking for a new face in the Tampa
Bay Derby, #11 Money Supply (10/1) intrigues. He cedes experience to
everyone in the field, of course: he has raced just once, a six-furlong debut
maiden win. But that race came at Tampa Bay Downs on the Davis undercard, so he
can handle a big-day Tampa track.
He tries two turns for the first time, but his
pedigree has enough middle-distance in it to be interesting at this trip, and
trainer Chad Brown’s trainees do tend to show their best at two turns.
Though the outside post may be a little tough, he has shown the ability to both handle a tough start and rally on late, meaning he can find a place to settle and then try to come on in the lane. With the stakes-proven runners likely to take most of the money, Money Supply has enough upside to be the price possibility in the Tampa Bay Derby.
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