Dreaming of an upset in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes
By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Handicapper
It is almost impossible to think of a better horse than Rachel Alexandra to have a major prep race for the Kentucky Oaks named for her. She won that race in 2009. Yet from that May race, she excelled on some of racing’s biggest stages.
Not finding much completion against her gender, Rachel Alexandra took on the boys. First, she won the Preakness Stakes (GI) and Haskell Invitational Stakes (GI) against colts her age. Then in September at Saratoga, she held off Macho Again to win the Woodward Stakes (GI) against older horses at Saratoga.
This year’s Rachel Alexandra Stakes with a purse of $300,000 brings together eleven of the best 3-year-old fillies in the country. The weather at post-times forecasts sunny with no chance of rain. The track should be fast and the race exciting. Here is the field.
1. La Crete (Medaglia d’Oro) is undefeated with her last a win over this track. A speedster who likes the front will benefit from her rail position. She retains Rosario, who is a go-to-rider for trainer Steve Asmussen. Steps up in company. Exotic contender.
2. North Country (Not This Time) is undefeated in three attempts against lower company. Her off the pace style will be hindered by her number 2 post. Not today.
3. Miss Mattie (Tonalist) is a solid closer who needs a heated pace to be relevant. Performed nice at this level in the Santa Ynez Stakes (GII). Seems a little too slow for this group. May prefer the turf. Later.
4. Dream Lith ( Medaglia d’Oro) has tried grade one racing with a modicum of success. Trainer brings his horses ready to run. The last shows she can handle this level. With right early pace she could win. Contender.
5. Divine Huntress (Divining Rod) is a Maryland bred who steps up in company for this race. However, the jockey change to Jose Ortiz might signal that trainer Motion has her ready for her 2022 debut. Exotic Contender.
6. Candy Raid ( Candy Ride) has been trying to reach this level with eight races. Her stakes try was turned back in January by La Crete. Later.
7. Turnerloose (Nyquist) is a front-running specialist on the turf. This is her inaugural attempt on the dirt. Working nicely on the dirt over the Fair Grounds course. Trainer Cox keeps jockey Geroux. If she takes to the dirt she will push the pace. Big if. Later.
8. Goddess of Fire (Mineshaft) working nicely for this race. Breeder Red Oak Stable retains ownership. Trainer Pletcher puts up jockey Saez. Distance may be her demon. Could bounce off last. Later.
9. Awake At Midnyte ( Nyquist) is a fast stalker with a 90 Beyers in last race. Has the right race progression and works to do the job. Jockey Mario Gutierrez retains the ride for trainer O’Neill. Stretching out to 8.5 furlongs will hurt her as the wire approaches. Likely at the lower end of exotics.
10. California Angel (California Chrome) boasts a bullet workout over the Fair Grounds track. Scored at the grade two level with a monster close on the turf. Her one dirt stakes race left a lot to be desired. Later.
11. Hidden Connections (Connect) won a grade three event on the dirt at this distance. Had an excuse in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies race. Trainer Calhoun has her working great over Fair grounds course with the last earning a bullet. Top Contender.
There is enough early speed to provide an honest pace. Five in the field are making their inaugural 2022 run. The race is a critical point in these fillies’ maturation.
The pace should be set by La Crete with Turnerloose pushing. As the field rounds the final turn expect Awake At Midnyte and Hidden Connections to be closing in on the lead. Down the stretch those two will overcome La Crete with Dream Lith closing strongly. Here is how they will finish:
4. Dream Lith (6-1)
11. Hidden Connection (3-1)
9. Awake At Midnyte (7-2)
1. La Crete (8-1)
Handigamble:
$20 Win---Dream Lith #4 ($20)
$10 Exacta Box--- #4, #9 and #11 ($60)
$.50 Tri Box --- #1, #4, #9 and #11 ($12)
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