Longshot Plays in the Fayette Stakes
By: Stuart deVoe, ThoroFan Handicapper
Keeneland’s
closing day card anchored by The G2 Fayette Stakes for a $200,000 purse at 1
1/8 miles on the main track for 3yo & up – that’s what I will be
doing. Let’s face it, we all want to
keep our handicapping skills sharp for the big upcoming weekend. Unfortunately,
the weather looks unsettled, so we must think about an off track.
Let’s look at the field (in post-position order & morning line):
1. Sleepy Eyes Todd (3-1) – Looks like this eight-time winner of over $2 million will be forwardly placed if not leading. After an ambitious & unsuccessful trip to the Middle East in the spring, ‘Todd showed up in a little stake at Fonner. He stumbled at the start and was hooked wide the entire way in a better than looked effort. However, he got some time and ran a bang-up 2nd to Art Collector, a Breeders’ Cup Classic contender, in the Charlestown Classic. Let’s face it; there’s no shame in being a $2 million winner. His best race wins this but did the trip take some starch out of him? Exotics.
2. Manhattan Up (12-1) – A left coast invader who was claimed 2 back by a sharp outfit and transferred to Robertino Diodoro after his last start, a victory at Los Al for Jonathan Wong. He has some very nice horses in his company lines, and perhaps the change of seasons will do him well. However, he would have to run his absolute best to win. Longshot chance.
3. Militarist (50-1) – A 4yo with only seven starts and two wins, both on turf. He looks light on both experience and numbers. Pass.
4. Night Ops (6-1) – Another who was a bridesmaid to Art
Collector (Alydar Stakes at SAR) this past year is very versatile and always
seems to effort. He shows up, has good
connections, should get a cozy trip, and his sheet numbers stack up well. One could argue he is winless in 7 starts
this year and doesn’t seem to polish off his races. I’m glass half full on this one. He was in the money in all but one of those
seven races, beaten 5 lengths by another Breeders’ Cup Classic Contender in Max
Player. Win contender.
5. Independence Hall (5-2) – Mike McCarthy sends out this 4yo
who has been knocking heads with this divisions best. His 2nd to the Classic favorite
Knicks Go jumps off the page. He is 2
for 2 on off tracks and will be forwardly placed – never a bad thing on
Keeneland’s dirt. I’ve always expected a
breakout performance from this one, but that just hasn’t come…yet. He seems to flatten out late in his races and
is another who seems to struggle polishing off his races. However, he may be
rounding back to his best and will be fancied by the bettors. Win contender.
6. King Fury (9-2) – The lone 3yo in the field has had
an eventful summer. After running a good
2nd in the Ohio Derby, King Fury ran on turf in Saratoga. It wasn’t the trainer’s ideal spot, but he
wanted a race into him before the Travers.
He got hooked 3 to 4 wide the entire trip and ran much better than his
line would suggest. He was well behind
the slow-paced Travers with no shot.
Then the light came on in his last where he won by 13 lengths at
Churchill with a fast number. If he
repeats, he is right there. If he moves
forward, he wins. I like improving
three-year-olds in the fall. Win contender.
7. Code of Honor (3-1) – This winner of $2.9 million and a few Grade 1’s will get plenty of support. Rightly so. He consistently runs fast numbers in graded races. However, he has 2 wins in his last 8 starts spanning a 2-year period. He will need some pace up front and some racing luck. Exotics.
8. Fort Peck (20-1) – Another from the sharp claiming outfit, Flying P Stable and Diodoro. He will have to improve to contend. He did run 2nd in a Grade 2 behind Life is Good in his last. Pass.
9. Major Fed (12-1) – I find this horse interesting. He seemed like he was rushed to make the
Derby last year and paid the price. The
connections regrouped and brought him back with only 2 starts this year – both
wins. He came forward into slow paces in
each of those efforts, a hard thing to do.
His speed figures and sheet numbers are a bit light relative to the rest
of the field, but Major Fed has shown talent in the past and may prove to be a
good horse yet. Longshot chance.
The Picks
When we get to the end of the year, I look for horses that are on the upswing. I look for those animals that may not have had the best of it early on but have the talent and upside. King Fury, Independence Hall, Major Fed. Those seasoned runners who have shown flashes of brilliance can win for sure. But at depressed odds, what are you getting for your money? If they win, you aren’t surprised. But you also won’t make a score. Sleepy Eyes Todd, Code of Honor, Night Ops.
The Play
I’m gonna see if I can get a “free” bankroll for the big dance next weekend. If I am right, I will be rewarded. If I am not…well, the wait for Christmas got a bit longer…
$100 wager
Exactas: $40 6 with 9 = $40
$20 6 with 5 = $20
$10 5,9 with 5,6,9 = $40
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