Handicapper's Corner: Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1)

 Royal group of fillies in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup

By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers-Off

Keeneland photo

The most prestigious three-year-old turf race of the autumn season highlights Keeneland’s card on Saturday, October 16: the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1). Run for the 38th time this year, the race began in 1984, when Queen Elizabeth II attended the race and presented a trophy to Sintra. The winners’ list is a litany of top-notch turf fillies, including Memories of Silver (1996), Perfect Sting (1999), Dayatthespa (2012), and Rushing Fall (2018).

 

As late as this race is on the modern calendar of Breeders’ Cup preps, it turned out live last year. Winner Harvey’s Lil Goil finished third, just a neck behind Audarya, in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf (G1).

 

Race 8: Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1), three-year-old fillies, one and one-eighth miles on the turf, post time 4:44 pm EDT

 

 This $500,000 race drew a field of ten runners, including three Group-quality overseas shippers. In general, the pace should be honest but not roaring; no one in the field must go to the front, but Lady Speightspeare has a tendency to go, and both Technical Analysis and Burning Ambition show enough pace that she will not get a free ride.

 

Likely favorite Empress Josephine for Aidan O’Brien is wheeling back quickly after a quality third-place finish against good older horses in the First Lady (G1) last week at Keeneland. She is a horse who likes to have some pace to chase, but last time she did not have to drop hopelessly far back, and she came very close, beaten only a length by the infinitely game Blowout and the classy Regal Glory.

 

This is a top-class turf race; unsurprisingly, Chad Brown has a live pair. The more interesting Shantisara began her career in France but has gotten her American campaign off to an excellent start, with a second in the Boiling Springs at Monmouth and then a pair of wins in the Pucker Up (G3) and the Jockey Club Oaks. The Pucker Up is perennially a strong prep for the QEII, and Shantisara has shown the versatility necessary to win races from right near the pace or well off of it. Though, watch how much rain falls; a lot is in the forecast for Friday, and she is unproven over ground softer than good.

 

Technical Analysis, the other for Brown, won both the Lake George (G3) and Lake Placid (G2) at the Spa. She has tactical speed, with wins from a leading or tracking spot, though she still has to prove that she can stretch out to the mile and an eighth. Her pedigree suggests she should love it, though she was out finished in the Wonder Again (G3), the only time she tried it.

 

Burning Ambition needs to improve against these Grade 1 types, but a romping victory in the Indiana Grand Stakes earned her an invitation to do just that. Her pedigree appeals strongly for the stretch to nine furlongs for the first time; she has won twice from rail draws before, and trainer Brad Cox and jockey Florent Geroux have started the Keeneland meet red hot.

 

Selections:

#3 Shantisara (7/2)

#4 Empress Josephine (3/1)

#1 Burning Ambition (6/1)

 

Longshot: If you’re going for a longshot, why not go for a real bomber: specifically, #6 Queen Goddess (30/1)?  Queen Goddess has shown in her California races that she is a tractable filly who likes the turf, and even though it is her first stretch to nine furlongs, her pedigree appeals top, and bottom for the trip. She has a lot to prove since she has yet even to try stakes company, much less win a stakes race. And, she will have to move forward to beat these kinds of horses. But, the connections inspire strong confidence.

 

Trainer Michael McCarthy has a well-earned reputation for being judicious about placement and shipping — he is by no means afraid to put a horse in a tough spot, but he also has an excellent feel for which horses are good enough to put in such races. If he is moving a horse from a N1X win to Grade 1, he sees something. And Tyler Gaffalione takes the call. Gaffalione has been riding as hot as anyone at Keeneland, with seven wins in just the first week of the meet.