Handicapper's Corner: 2021 Raven Run Stakes (G2)

 Speedy fillies fly in Raven Run Stakes

By Robert Marks (@theyreinthegate)

 

Keeneland Photo

Saturday at 5:16pm Eastern time is the $250,000 Grade 2 Lexus Raven Run Stakes, a fillies race for 3-year old’s on the dirt main track at 7 furlongs. Held at beautiful Keenland in Kentucky where most races boast large betting fields. This year’s edition of the Lexus Raven Run Stakes is no exception.

 

This is a very competitive race. Here are the fillies we will focus on for betting purposes:

 It appears that Obligatory, the morning line favorite at 3-1, will likely be the post time favorite. Obligatory could have ran in the upcoming Breeders Filly and Mare sprint but decides instead to race here. Obligatory likes to make one shot and close from the back of the back. She’s cutting back from last month’s Cotillion Stakes where she finished 2nd over 1 1/16 at Parx Racetrack in Philly. She has looked her best at 7 furlongs and she will have a fast pace to close into. Appears a must use in your exotics.

 

One of the horses I expect to be part of the fast pace will be Miss Speedy trained by Mark Casse. She comes off a 1st place finish in the Duchess Stakes at Woodbine where she led the entire way. She ran with blinkers off for the first time in that race. Riding her will be Brian Hernandez Jr. who knows the Keenland Surface well. If she does not get swallowed up early in this crowed field Miss Speedy can certainly finish on top.

 

Caramel Swirl comes into this race on a good racing foundation with 6 placings in 8 starts, including 2 wins at the 7-furlong distance out of 5 starts including a 101-speed figure at Saratoga this summer. Also has had nice workouts since last running at Charlestown in August including a bullet workout last week.

 

Looking for some value, Cilla at 8-1, fits the bill. This well-seasoned 3-year-old, out of California Chrome, has raced 10 times including once at Keenland last April in the Beaumont Stakes where she ran a dull like 6th. But since then, she has won 3 times out of 3 starts at Evangeline Downs, Saratoga, and Monmouth. It also doesn’t hurt having Tyler Gaffalione as the rider, who has a 29%-win rate at Keenland. Expect her to be part of the front to mid pack at the start.

 

Overall, we expect a fast pace, setting up the race for Obligatory to close into. Our strategy will be keying on Obligatory to win and putting him on top of our Exacta’s and Trifecta’s with Cilla, Miss Speedy and Caramel Swirl.

Good Luck and remember to watch the paddock closely and make any last adjustments based on how the horses look.

 

Wagering/Betting Handigambling Bankroll

Here is our $100 worth of betting for the race

#13/6,7  Exacta Key Box: $10 for $40 total

#13 over 7,8,11 over 7,8,11 Trifecta Key Box ($2 Box for $36 Total)

#13 Win Bet-$24