Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Florida Derby (G1)

Code of Honor, Harvey Wallbanger Meet in Crowded Florida Derby 

By: Jeffrey Cobb, S. FL ThoroFan Member

The 2019 Edition of the Florida Derby is upon us. The weather Saturday should be nice, and the field has a healthy 11 entries so let's get started.

There is some early speed signed on in this race. The 1 horse, Hidden Scroll has gone to the lead in his first two races breaking his maiden first time out by a solid 14 lengths. Hidden Scroll disappointed his chalk eating backers as a 6 to 5 favorite in the Fountain of Youth (FOY). However, he may have an excuse, the comment line said bumped, stumbled start, tired. Javier Castellano is taking over the reins from Joel Rosario. I'm not so sure that's much of a jockey upgrade. But Hidden Scroll does have speed and the inside post. I love speed on the rail, and Hidden Scroll is a tepid 5/2 ML favorite.

The other speed comes from the 7 horse Maximum Security. Luis Saez rides for Jason Servis. Interesting as this one also broke maiden at first asking. The race was Maiden Claimer for 16K. However he has beaten winners in 50K Optional Claimers twice now winning last out by a HUGE 18 lengths. Maximum Security has never been past 7 furlongs, so the distance is a question for this one. Looks to be an early pace factor and fade to me.

Also in the mix are the FOY 1st and 2^nd place finishers #9 Code of Honor and my personal favorite #4 Bourbon War. Code of Honor gets Johnny V. riding for Shug McGaughey and Bourbon War has Irad Ortiz, Jr. for Mark Hennig. Code of Honor will try to close from mid pack while Bourbon War likes to come from way back. The expected fast early pace will help both of these.

Other horses of interest are: #2 Current with Manuel Franco up for Todd Pletcher and #3 Harvey Wallbanger with B.J Hernandez on board for Kenneth McPeek. Current is going Turf to Dirt, a 25% move for Todd Pletcher. In addition Manuel Franco is 57% wins and 86% in the money for Pletcher over the last 60 days. I like those intangibles. Harvey Wallbanger is well rested having not raced since winning the Holy Bull on February 2. I would look for these guys to take minor awards and use them in the lower halves of my vertical bets.

The rest are just out for the exercise. So what happens. Hidden Scroll and Maximum Security duel it out on the lead with Maximum Security spitting the bit first.

Hidden Scroll hangs on a little longer but the race is set up for Code of Honor and Bourbon War. Code of Honor will get first run and repeat his FOY victory. Bourbon War will be fighting it out with Current and Harvey Wallbanger for the remaining prizes.

I will key Code of Honor with the other 3 for exactas and and trifectas.

Good luck and enjoy the race.

 

Handicapper's Corner: Dubai World Cup (Group 1)

Thundering into the Dubai World Cup

By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers-Off

This year marks the twenty-fourth edition of the Meydan's flagship race, the Dubai World Cup.  It offers a rich $10,000,000 purse – the biggest purse on earth, once again, now that the Pegasus has split into dirt and turf races.

Originally run over the dirt at Nad Al Sheba, it was moved to the Tapeta when Meydan opened in 2010.  The very first World Cup in 1996 saw Cigar score the fourteenth of sixteen consecutive victories.  Cigar is not the only Hall of Fame inductee to have won the Dubai World Cup during his career: Silver Charm (1998), Invasor (2007), and Curlin (2008) have also emerged victorious in Dubai's biggest race.  All those horses won in its early days on the dirt.  During the Tapeta era, 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom (2013) ranked among its winners.

In 2015, Meydan switched back from Tapeta to dirt.  Though Meydan local Prince Bishop  won the first over the new dirt surface, American horses won the next two.  In 2016, California Chrome joined Animal Kingdom and Silver Charm in the club of horses who have won both the Kentucky Derby and the Dubai World Cup.  The next year, Arrogate notched the final victory of his short, brilliant career in the race.  The home team returned to the winners’ circle in 2018, when Thunder Snow jumped to the lead and kept on going; he returns to defend his crown in this year’s edition.

Often, speed is where you want to be on the Meydan dirt during a big race day.  Thunder Snow used that to his advantage last year, seizing the early lead when North America came away poorly.  This year, however?  North America returns in even better form and hopes to break well.  And, one gate inside of him, there’s another speed horse who is in the shape of his life: Capezzano, who shot to the lead and held Thunder Snow at bay in the Al Maktoum Challenge Round 3 (G1) over this course and distance earlier this month.

Between the two speed horses, North America appeals a bit more.  His connections have freshened him since a pair of dominant victories in the Al Maktoum Challenge Round 1 (G2) and Al Maktoum Challenge Round 2 (G2).  That is probably a good thing, as he tends to fire well when freshened, and in recent years winners of the Al Maktoum Challenge Round 3 haven’t come back best in the Dubai World Cup.

But the presence of Capezzano means even with a good break, a spot near the front, and the possibly speed-favoring track, North America will have to come with his absolute best to get the job done.  It also means that a good horse with first run and a well-timed move could get the best run of things – giving Thunder Snow, second off the layoff, an excellent chance to become the first horse to win the Dubai World Cup twice.  Though he flattened out a bit late behind easy frontrunning winner Capezzano in Al Maktoum Round 3, he is the type to hit back harder second off a layoff. And, even though Thunder Snow is mired in the parking lont, he won this race from the parking lot last year, too.

It’s hard to love a deep closer for more than anything but a belated run for an underneath share.  However, if North America and Capezzano really lock up, an off-pace type may get a better run of things than usual.  Among them, it’s the ones who don’t have do drop all the way back (unlike the honest, classy, yet compromised Gunnevera) who appeal most to be threats late: think Yoshida and Seeking the Soul.  Neither needs an absolute collapse in front of them to make an impact – particularly a good thing in case either North America or Capezzano comes away badly.  Yoshida is preferred between the two because of his experience in shipping; he took a transatlantic journey last year and held his own at Royal Ascot, so this is something he has done before and come into well.  However, Seeking the Soul, consistent as he is through his American career, would be no surprise to see find the frame.

Selections:

#12 Thunder Snow (6/1)

#3 North America (5/2)

#10 Yoshida (8/1)

Longshot:  For the most part, this year’s Dubai World Cup looks quite the formful race; finding a credible longshot is a tough endeavor.  However, #9 New Trails (30/1) has some good outings through the Carnival.  Yes, it’s not great that last time out, he was caught late by Dolkong for show in Al Maktoum Round 3.

However?  If you’re willing to believe that race was intended to tighten the screws for World Cup Night, his form earlier in the carnival is strong.  In January he won a handicap as easily as he needs to in order to look a proper stakes horse, then followed that up with a late-gaining second behind lone speed North America in Al Maktoum Round 2.  With North America such a key contender today – and likely to get a tougher run of things than he did in Al Maktoum Round 2 – a horse who can run in North America’s ZIP code appeals, especially at the long odds New Trails will most certainly be.

Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Louisiana Derby

Looking for an Upset in Louisiana Derby

By: John DaSilva, PARX Linemaker

The Kentucky Derby prep season is now turning for home as the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby is scheduled to be run at the Fair Grounds on Saturday. The mile and an eighth race is the first event on the Derby trail that the winner receives 100 points and basically a guaranteed spot into the Kentucky Derby field. 

After the upset of the Bob Baffert duo of Game Winner and Improbable at Oaklawn Park last week in the two divisions of the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes, Kentucky Derby favoritism seemingly could be up in the air. While Game Winner is still #1 in the NTRA Top 3-year-old poll this week, Louisiana Derby 6-5 morning line favorite War of Will trails by only 6 points, 342-336. A victory in the Louisiana Derby could propel the Mark Casse trainee to Kentucky Derby favoritism. Question is, can he get the job done. 

 

#1 Roiland (12-1)  (Successful Appeal – Anabranch by Congaree)

James Graham/Tom Amoss – 6 starts, 2 wins, 1 second, 1 third $119,660   

10 Derby Points

 Has a problem leaving the gate in a timely manner but took advantage of the speed collapsing in the Grade 2 Risen Star, getting up to be third at 69-1. Gets no favors with the rail draw because if he has trouble leaving the gate for the fifth consecutive start, he will be last going into the clubhouse turn. He will then have to deal with plenty of traffic and might get stuck inside for most of the race. Could be good enough to fatten up the exotics underneath but will probably need a speed duel and speed collapse if he is to defeat these.

#2 Lemniscate (15-1)  (Exchange Rate – Meet At Lola’s by Smoke Glacken)

Brian Hernandez Jr./Kenny McPeek – 3 starts, 1 win, 1 second, 0 thirds $41,500

0 Derby Points

Makes dirt route and stakes debut after breaking maiden last out at Gulfstream Park in first start on grass and at a route. McPeek knows how to get a horse to run successfully at a distance. Despite the bullet dirt work on 3/13, it might be asking too much to step up in class so high along with the surface change and shipping from Florida to Louisiana.

#3 Limonite (20-1)  (Lemon Drop Kid – Colina Verde by Know Heights)

Jose Ortiz/Steve Asmussen – 5 starts, 1 win, 1 second, 2 thirds $92,300   

2 Derby points

Bred to handle the distance and getting Jose Ortiz to ride is a plus. He did finish third in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs in the slop last year. This is his second start off the layoff and should improve off his fifth place finish in the Risen Star. With Eclipse Award winning jockey and trainer getting together along with a pedigree that can handle the distance, this is a horse that must be used if an upset happens.

#4 Sueno (8-1)  (Atreides – Class Above by Quiet American)

Corey Lanerie/Keith Desormeaux – 5 starts, 2 wins, 2 seconds, 1 third $190,440   

8 Derby Points

Desormeaux returns to his home state with this one after beaten ¾ of a length in the Grade 3 Southwest. Avoided the Baffert duo by skipping the Rebel to run in this spot. With Lanerie aboard, he should be mid pack while racing on the rail. Desormeaux always does a great job getting horses ready to run in spots like this. Not worried that Kent isn’t riding for his brother here as he is riding for him in the Sunland Derby with Diamond Blitz. He is a contender that probably makes his move when the favorite decides to go.

#5 By My Standards (12-1) (Goldencents – A Jealous Woman by Muqtarib)

Gabriel Saez/Bret Calhoun – 4 starts, 1 win, 2 seconds, 1 third $53,710   

0 Derby Points

Impressive maiden winner takes major class jump and stretches out. Showed improved early speed in last two while stalking the pace. Saez had a bad looking spill in last race locally on Thursday but so far reports says he is fine. Would have to spread with many horses in order for me to use him

#6 War of Will (6-5)  (War Front – Visions of Clarity by Sadler’s Wells)

Tyler Gaffalione/Mark Casse – 7 starts, 3 wins, 1 second, 1 third $491,569  

60 Derby Points

Favorite has been impressive since switching to dirt, winning all three starts since the surface switch. He was favored in all of those starts and it coincided with the jockey switch to Gaffalione, who took a step up in his riding career by leaving the comfort of South Florida and having a successful foray to Kentucky last fall. Should stalk the pace and the last race he showed that he can last and run successfully while rest of the early pace runners dropped out of it as the race went on in the Risen Star. Bravazo won this race last year but the Risen Star winner came back to win the Louisiana Derby in the previous three years. His spot in Kentucky Derby is virtually guaranteed so a loss wouldn’t be bad unless it was a horrendous looking performance or he gets hurt. He is a deserving favorite and will be tough to beat.

#7 Mr. Money (20-1)  (Goldencents – Plenty O’Toole by Tiznow)

Adam Bechizza/Bret Calhoun – 5 starts, 1 win, 2 seconds, 0 thirds $154,000   

2 Derby Points

Can be excused for his seasonal debut as the took up in the stretch and fell back to be seventh. Gets jock switch to meet leading rider in wins, Adam Bechizza. Looks to make a middle move in his recent starts but with the jock switch one wonders if the Biscuit (Adam’s nickname) will be patient, awaiting and make his move to the front later on in the race. At the price, he could be used if we are trying to beat the favorite.

#8 Country House (9-2)  (Lookin At Lucky – Quake Lake by War Chant)

Luis Saez/Bill Mott – 4 starts, 1 win, 2 seconds, 0 thirds $120,175   

20 Derby Points

Broke slowly but ran well to be second in the Risen Star in stakes debut and first start since breaking maiden. The least regarded of the Mott trio of Derby contenders might be the second horse from the barn to get into the Derby field with a third place or better finish here. Gate issues in last two is a worry and he might have too much work to do to get in the money. But Saez is a having an outstanding year and he might be ready to step up from being one of the top jocks in South Florida to being in demand for major stakes as one of the best jocks in the nation. 

#9 Bankit (20-1)  (Central Banker – Sister in Arms by Colonel John)

Irad Ortiz Jr./Steve Asmussen – 8 starts, 2 wins, 3 seconds, 0 thirds $345,625 

4 Derby Points

After a successful move to open company with a second place finish in the Springboard Mile at Remington, he was disappointing with off the board finishes at Oaklawn Park in the Smarty Jones and Southwest. Asmussen tries change of jock and track switch in hopes to get him back on track towards the Derby. Just don’t see him waking up and being a contender versus these.

#10 Spinoff (8-1)  (Hard Spun – Zaftig by Gone West)

John Velazque/Todd Pletcher 3 starts, 2 wins, 0 seconds, 1 third $60,000  

 0 Derby Points

Went to the sidelines after third in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special. He came back on a Friday at Tampa Bay in an optional claimer last month. Velazquez gave up a day at Gulfstream to ride him in that race, where he was an easy 11 length winner in his route and seasonal debut. Velazquez and Pletcher made a similar move in an allowance in December 2017 with Vino Rosso. They obviously see great potential with him and if he moves up off that performance, he could be like Magnum Moon, who came back to win the Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby after winning a mid week allowance at Tampa Bay last year

#11 Hog Creek Hustle (12-1)  )Overanalyze – Candy Fortune by Candy Ride)

Miguel Mena/Vickie Foley  6 starts, 2 wins, 1 second, 1 third $137,300  

9 Derby Points

Anther horse that made up plenty of ground in the Risen Star after being checked early, finishing fourth. Finished second in the Grade 3 Lecomte in previous start. Mena rides for the first time and if he can get him to get a clean trip while not racing wide, he could be an exotic factor.

The Plays

Most likely winner is War of Will but win bet would be cost prohibitive. So in hopes for an upset, take a shot with a $5 exacta key box of Spinoff with War of Will, Limonite, Sueno, Mr. Money and Country House. $50

Then $5 win and $5 show on Spinoff, Limonite, Sueno, Mr. Money and Country House because they most likely will be overlays and if a bridgejumper goes all in on War of Will and misses, the value will be great with your return.  $50

Total $100

John DaSilva was the lead handicapper for the New York Post from 1999 to 2013. He has also worked as a jockey agent and is presently the morning line oddsmaker for Parx. 

Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Fairgrounds Oaks

A Kentucky Oaks Stepping Stone

By: Alex Sausville, RTIP Podcast

Despite being the penultimate event on a fantastic day of racing down in the Big Easy, the importance of the Fair Grounds Oaks may succeed all on the first Friday in May. 

The horses who enjoyed success in this prestigious prep race have followed those performances with wins in the Kentucky Oaks. Horses like Silverbulletday, Ashado, Rachel Alexandra and most recently 2012 winner Believe You Can have proven the true value of running at the Fair Grounds.

This year’s race includes a heavy favorite out of the Tom Amoss barn who enjoyed a front running victory in the G2 Rachel Alexandra back in February. Serengeti Empress, a daughter of Alternation, has been at the peak of discussions for favoritism for the Kentucky Oaks, but first she will need to showcase her talent one more time in front of the Louisiana faithful.

At a 6/5 morning line and with a very impressive form, Serengeti Empress will be tough to beat. However, after getting the front to herself in the Rachel Alexandra and with a slew of speed horses shipping in for the Oaks, there is value to be found in race 12 at the Fair Grounds.

Race Analysis:

First things first, let's give Serengeti Empress her due. Romping in the Pocahontas at Churchill and the Ellis Park Debutante(Going 7 furlongs) were surely very impressive feats. This is a very talented horse and the win in the Rachel Alexandra continued to show that. With that being said, she has been able to set the pace all her own way in her last two wins, and the one win she did not, she was being pushed by Wakeeta, an 80-1 longshot at Ellis in which the horses behind her were not talented enough to close. Not taking any credit away from a great performance, but when the factors have not been ideal for Serengeti Empress, the performances have been where the weakness lies. With a 7th place finish in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies and a 4th in the Schuylerville, Serengeti Empress was in company with Catherinethegreat at Saratoga and trailing eventual winner Jaywalk in Kentucky. Those races were definitely much more talented fields than she will face this weekend, but that isn’t to say there isn’t some hidden talent waiting for her on Saturday.

With the number of shippers coming in and more importantly the number of pace setters that accompany the field, it's going to be a much tougher day to get an unaccompanied trip around the racetrack. A vast majority of these horses have shown speed, although several come out of the Rachel Alexandra and sat right behind Serengeti Empress anyway. Both Liora and Street Band sat good trips but had nothing to really close into.

If I had to guess one horse, I think that will push the pace, I am going to the Delta Downs shipper Crescentcitypretty, a horse that is extending her distance from 7 furlongs and has been on the lead in all three lifetime starts. Although the distance will be tough for this horse in such a big race, Crescentcitypretty could be the one who tosses the monkey wrench into the pace scenario.

With these factors, I will look right to the Peter Eurton trained Slewgoodtobetrue. This is a horse that has her best success just off the pace in two wins at Santa Anita. Although bumping up into stakes company, this horse was a winner at this distance last time out and 2 for 2 in route races. With Florent Geroux aboard, Slewgoodtobetrue should be in the right spot to pounce as they turn for home.

Another one who really needs to be closer to the front but has the ability to close is Eres Tu. The only horse in the field that would be considered a true closer, Eres Tu made up big ground in the Rachel Alexandra to get 3rd and re-rallied to do so. With a jockey change to Jose Ortiz, I would expect this horse to be in a much better position and with what should be a much more favorable pace for this horse’s running style.

And lastly, I will give Sweet Diane and Joe Bravo a chance to be in a similar spot to Slewgoodtobetrue. If you look back at her past races, they have included an ample amount of traveling. The 13 ½ length victory in MSW company at Penn National was on a good track and was impressive but the field was not up to par with these. Despite that, the horse has good races going a mile and has the ability to stalk this pace and if in the right spot can showcase a big effort.

My Plays:

$40 to win on 7 - Slewgoodtobetrue

$5 Ex Key Box - 7/2,4,6 = $30

$5 Ex Key Box - 6/2,4,7 = $30

Total: $100

Final Thoughts:

This race is Serengeti Empress’s race to lose and if everything goes like it did in the Rachel Alexandra, we will see a very similar result. However, this field has some new faces and what I feel to be some unproven talent at the stakes level. I truly believe that after seeing that last race, this field will not make it as easy for Serengeti Empress and will have a legitimate shot to dethrone the Oaks favorite.

Lastly, based on how much I am foreseeing to be wagered on Serengeti Empress, I'm expecting a lit up tote board at the Fair Grounds when the race goes official. 

Alex Sausville is a student in the University of ZA Race Track Industry Program. Check out their twitter at: @OffTheTurfRTIP

Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Rebel Stakes Div. 2

It's Game On in the Rebel Stakes, Div. II

By: Michael Mills, ThoroFan Member

Not going to go into how this and the first division got established this year as I’m sure most of you have read it 100 times already.  

 Just want to say the folks at Oaklawn should be congratulated for their foresight to make the two races happen.

 
#1 Market King (30-1) Into Mischief – Divine Presence, by A.P. Indy

John Velazquez/D. Wayne Lukas - 6 starts, 1 win, 1 second, 1 third

Local guy should be part of the early pace. Broke his maiden at Oaklawn February 9th by three-quarters of a length racing 1 1/16 mile. In his most recent start, he placed third.  D. Wayne Lukas has two Rebel victories.  John Velazquez, who interestingly takes the mount here has yet to win the Rebel.  Brings speed to the fray as he steps up big time in class.  Don’t see him lasting to hit the board.

#2 Laughing Fox (10-1) Union Rags – Saskawea, by Stormy Atlantic

Ricardo Santana Jr./Steve Asmussen - 4 starts, 2 win, 0 second, 0 third

Two for two this year with both wins coming at Oaklawn.  Ran very well February 18^th at the Rebel distance to win by just over a length. He projects to sit off the pace and attempt to make a move on the others at the top of the lane.  If he continues to improve has shot to be a Rebel.

#3 Parsimony (30-1) Dominus – Lil Cora Tee, by Lil E. Tee

Mario Gutierrez/Doug O’Neill - 7 starts, 0 win, 4 second, 0 third

The four-time bridesmaid makes his 8^th trip to the alter.  He has certainly run competitively against several of the best in California at various distances and surfaces.  He’ll look to sit behind the pace.  May present some value in the third or fourth placings.

#4 Jersey Agenda (15-1) Jersey Town – Risky Agenda, by Dynaformer

Jose Ortiz/Steve Asmussen - 4 starts, 2 win, 1 second, 0 third

Threw in a clunker in the Southwest Stakes finishing 8^th after having to steady on the first turn.  Has a win over the track at the distance two back.  Very interesting to see Jose of the brothers Ortiz show up here however minor award may be the ceiling.

#5 Game Winner (4-5) Candy Ride – Indyan Giving, by A.P. Indy

Joel Rosario/Bob Baffert - 4 starts, 4 win, 0 second, 0 third

The champion 2-year-old in 2018 has yet to run this year following his victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile back in November at Churchill.  Working well but must deal with the layoff and the change in game plan due to the cancellation of the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes at closed Santa Anita.  He has done nothing wrong so far on the race track so beat him if you can.

#6 Omaha Beach (7-2) War Front – Charming, by Seeking the Gold

Mike Smith/Richard Mandella - 5 starts, 1 win, 3 second, 1 third

Finally broke his maiden in his last start after three very close seconds and a third all against relatively good competition.  He projects to press the pace and see if he can get two turns (actually three) for the first time on dirt.  Has a shot with Money Mike if the guy to his inside is off his game.

#7 Our Braintrust (6-1) Freud – Caller Trust, by Trust N Luck

David Cohen/Mark Casse - 5 starts, 2 win, 2 second, 1 third

Ran well last month finishing third in the 1 1/8-mile Grade 3 Withers Stakes at Aqueduct.  Will sit mid pack even with the blinkers added and try to make one run to hit the board.  Will need his best.

#8 Gunmetal Gray (10-1) Exchange Rate – Classofsixtythree, by Include

Flavien Prat/Jerry Hollendorfer - 6 starts, 2 win, 2 second, 0 third

He’s the closer of the race.  Has run well in all his starts but has been well beaten by Game Winner both times they faced each other.  Interesting that Prat gets back on this fellow after Smith having him in the last two.  Hits the board.

#9 Kaziranga (50-1) Candy Ride – Teammate, by A.P. Indy

Richard Eramia/Steve Asmussen - 6 starts, 1 win, 1 second, 0 third

Entered the wrong race Saturday.  Pass.

#10 Captain Von Trapp (15-1) Trappe Shot – Julie From Dixie, by Dixie Union

Ramon Vazquez/Steve Asmussen - 5 starts, 2 win, 2 second, 0 thirds

Has won two in a row and over the track.  Not sure he is going to want to go much beyond one mile.  Would have to continue to progress to hit the board.

The Plays

Winner:  Game Winner - beat him if you can    $30 to win 5  = $30

$10 Exacta 5/2-6-8      = $30

$2 Tri 5/2-6-8/2-6-7-8  = $18

$2 Tri 2-6-8/5/2-6-7-8  = $18

Total  $96

Have A Day!

Mike Mills