Logical Contenders in Shadwell Turf Mile
By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Chairman
Which horse in the field of 16 including two “also eligible” horses will have their ticket to Louisville punched by Saturday night? That is the question.
Rain is
expected through Saturday morning, but the afternoon looks good and track could
be fast. The weather may soften the turf course.
When looking at
this size of a field it is necessary to eliminate as many that should not win
or be in exotics, as possible. To do this for this mile turf race there a few
indicators that will include or exclude horses from the role of logical
contenders.
They are:
graded stakes performance on the turf, current form and comparative speed on
the turf (especially late speed). Applying these indicators to the field of
sixteen allows for the elimination as likely winners of the following horses:
Next Shares (#1), Divisdero (#2), Great Wide Open (#3), Imperative (#4),
Multiplier (#8), Holiday Zone (#16AE) and Big Score (#13). Zulu Alpha (#15AE)
has potential but, should only be considered in the bottom of exotics, if at
all.
This leaves
eight, half the field, that have a chance to perform well and maybe win. They
are:
# 5. Heart to Heart (English Channel) had a bad break in
the Fourstardave at Saratoga that took him out of contention. Will be one of four
setting the pace. Keeps jockey Leparoux after a very productive next spring.
Likes Keeneland and OK with soft going. Should be in the exotics. (ML: 5-1)
#6. Synchrony (Tapit) has a serious stretch run
ability as he showed to Yoshida and Beach Patrol in the Turf Classic at
Churchill Downs last May. Soft turf a plus. May like a little more distance,
but will be coming at the end. (ML: 8-1)
#7. Qurbaan (Spreightstown) surprised the
Saratoga players in the Baruch at 13-1. His breeding may favor the 8 furlongs.
Owned by Shadwell Stable and been training at Godolphin Training Center (GTC)
in Saratoga. Gets Mike Smith. No surprise, this time. (ML: 20-1)
#9. Analyze
It (Point of Entry) has four things going for him. He has won twice at the
mile on the turf. He finished twice behind Catholic Boy, the winner of the
Travers Stakes. He has won over the Keeneland turf (soft) course. And, he is
trained by Chad Brown (ML: 8-1). What else do you need?
#10.Voodoo
Song (English Channel) is as fast as they come and will assure a fast early
pace. Shortening up to a mile is good. Has been working on a soft turf course
at Belmont and may like it if the rain has softened-up the Keeneland course.
Current form in question. (ML: 4-1)
#11.Almanaar
(GB) (Dubawi-IRE) showed his stuff running second in the Arlington Million.
First or second in last four races, two of which were graded. Could surprise at
a price. Most likely an exotic play. (ML: 10-1)
#12.Mr.
Misunderstood (Archarcharch) is very, very fast in the lane. Will need his
best effort to be competitive here, but not impossible. (ML: 5-1)
#14.Bound
for Nowhere (The Factor) has won three of his last four, two of which were
graded. The one lost was at ascot in a grade one sprint on the turf; he
finished 3rd. Must be respected. (ML: 6-1)
Honest
early pace with Heart to Heart, Voodoo Song, Mr. Misunderstood and Bound for
Nowhere vying for the lead with Heart to Heart emerging as the leader down the
backside. Qurbaan, Analyze It and Zulu Alpha (if in) will be pressing. The rest
will in the back. As they enter the stretch look for Mr. Misunderstood trying
to be competitive with Qurbaan and Analyze It. Qurbaan benefited from a weight
advantage and first-time Lasix last. But had gate trouble. With Mike Smith in from
California to ride he should be competitive. Velazquez gets on Analyze It.
Here
is how I see the race ending:
1.
Analyze It (#9)
2.
Qurbaan (#7)
3.
Heart to Heart (#5)
4.
Almanaar (#11)
5.
Zulu Alpha (#15) (If draws in use
rather than Bound for Nowhere) or Bound for Nowhere (#14)
Handigamble:
·
$5 Exacta Box: (#5, #7, #9) = $30.00
·
$.50 Tri Box (five horses) :(#5,#7,#9.
#11 and #14/#15) = $30.00
·
$10 to Place: #7 $10.00
·
$30 to Show: #7 $30.00
·
Total $100.00
When a 23-1 and 81-1 run 1/2 its hard to know why? Nonetheless, the Handicappers" Corner plan shows the importance of hedging a bet. The $30 to show on the #7 netted an $11 profit and the opportunity to try again.
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