Handicapper's Corner: Fayette S (G2)

Scuba a Longshot Play in Soggy Fayette Stakes

By: John Caro, S. FL ThoroFan Member

A small but hardy field is scheduled to run in the Fayette and weather may be a factor. 

The forecast is 40-50% chance of rain all day and 50° with NW winds. Could make this a special test for the morning line favorite traveling from California.

Let's review the field.

#1 Prime Attraction (2-1) – Cassidy/Desormeux – Classy five-year old with many graded stakes under his belt. Has not won a race since November last year but, placed ITM 3 of his last five efforts against top company on the West coast. No question he is a quality horse though he is traveling here from much more temperate environment and never raced in the Midwest. His speed ratings are impressive but, I remain concerned about the change in venue, the wet conditions and his off track speed (95). I suspect he will be ITM but not on top.

#2 Nice Not Nice (10-1) – Bradley/Saez, G – Coming off a second place finish in his first graded stakes at his best speed on fast dirt (97) doesn’t inspire me and given his single placement on an off track at 89 is even less encouragement to put him near the top of my list. Not for me except in the bottom of exotics.

#3 Hence (10-1) – Asmussen/Santana – He likes the distance and has won three of his six attempts. His recent win was a listed stakes and a small field. Always liked this guy and his recent speeds on a fast track shows improvement in coming from off the pace to close on worn down runners. I just don’t see that scenario for this event. His off track speed is a low 86. Bottom of the exotics.

#4 Scuba (15-1) – Walsh/Gaffalione – I can well understand the odds makers putting him at high odds given this old guy’s recent form and record. However, he’s coming off a long break and his return was on turf. The stellar note in his record is having three ITM finishes in three attempts on off tracks at 102 which is no surprise as he is by Tapit. This could be a longshot play in the mix. I like the angle.

#5 Leofric (5-2) – Cox/Geroux – The connections have been hot and Cox has brought this fella along through steady progressions to the Grade I Woodward where he finished third by a nose behind Gunnevera and two lengths back of Yoshida who closed on him in the stretch. He may have lost that race by being hustled along too fast at the beginning and fast early fractions from an outside post. But he kept on. His jockey has won on him twice; from the lead and from the back. He has a second place finish in the Razorback on an off track at 99. Given his jockey’s ability to use the horses pace skills and his overall speeds he is a likely contender for the win and hope to get better odds, maybe 3-1.

#6 Hofburg (5-2) – Mott/Ortiz, J. – Who doesn’t like this youngster? His speeds are excellent. His ability in the off track is excellent (105). Another Tapit boy. We can draw a line through the Kentucky Derby effort as the trouble for him started way early. His work tab is excellent. He’s ready for this contest. Hope the odds stay at 9-5 to 2-1. Top pick.

#7 Rated R Superstar (10-1) – McPeek/Hernandez, B. – His advantage here is his off track experience with a 95 and he seems to do better in small fields. He is certainly a dead closer based on his history. I don’t know what instructions Kenny might give to Brian in terms of position but if we look at his late pace, nobody has that. Could surprise at a big price.

Handigambing:

I believe the weather will play a factor in the outcome. If the weather is good, Hofburg and Prime Attraction get the nod. If the forecast is as anticipated I suggest the plays below.

$0.50 Superfecta – 5,6 with 1,4,5,6 with All with All  -  $60

$1 Trifecta – 5,6 with 4,5,6 with All  -  $20

$3 Exacta – 5,6 with 4,7   -   $12

$4 WP  -  4  -  $8