Dream Maker has Pace Advantage in Breeders' Futurity
By: Reinier Macatangay, Setting the Pace
To be completely honest, it might not offer the best betting opportunity. Choosing a race with a large field and value is fine, but without a strong opinion it is useless.
Nevertheless, someone out there will find value in reading another man’s analysis, so here is a rundown of the field below and a mythical bet at the bottom.
1) Signalman – The one point to note about his seven-furlong maiden win at Saratoga is the final time of 1:23.89, slower than the Spinaway Stakes (G1) later in the card won by Sippican Harbor in 1:23.72. Of course, the Spinaway is a Grade 1 for fillies, so it could be unfair to compare the race to Signalman’s maiden win. At the moment, there are not enough clues to get a solid feel.
2) Sombeyay – His fourth-place finish in the Hopeful Stakes (G1) is not good at all, as he saved ground on the turn and switched out in the lane, which is a perfect trip. Todd Pletcher trains, but lately he does not seem as sharp with 2-year-olds.
3) Fluminense – After losing to Dream Maker in his career debut at Churchill Downs, this one broke his maiden by over six lengths at the same racetrack, before throwing in a flat effort on grass in the Soaring Free Stakes at Woodbine. He may enjoy going back to dirt, but running in a two-turn route will pose a challenge.
4) Unionizer – Son of Union Rags looked good winning the ungraded Sapling Stakes at Monmouth Park, although the slight speed bias helped him. Previously, he broke his maiden at Saratoga by half a length in a decent effort. Bill Mott is winless in his last 33 Keeneland starts though, according to TimeformUS. Limit underneath.
5) Dream Maker – Mark Casse trainee only finished fifth in the Hopeful, but he ran decent for his second lifetime start. Casse runners were flat the entire Saratoga meet, and this colt has woken up in the morning with a super four-furlong workout in 47 flat, the best out of 113 horses. Pedigree indicates router too. The pick.
6) Everfast – In his two-turn debut, he closed for an even fifth in the Iroquois Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs. The Breeders’ Futurity is supposed to be a tougher race. Sometimes 2-year-old horses need a few races, and that could be the case.
7) Knicks Go – Toss out the six-length loss at Arlington Park. Synthetic races should not weigh heavily when handicapping a dirt race. Still, there is nothing eye-catching beyond that either, as he ran a flat fifth in the Sanford Stakes (G3) and broke his maiden at Ellis Park with an okay 87 TimeformUS Speed Figure.
8) Tobacco Road – On paper, this is just not an exciting horse. He turned in a flat fourth at 5-1 in the Iroquois, after two ho-hum wins at Ellis Park. Granted, Steve Asmussen trains, and sometimes 2-year-old horses need a few races.
9) Moonster – His two TimeformUS Speed Figures of 82 and 89 will not excite anyone, but at least he owns a one-mile win at Churchill Downs (albeit, at one turn). Toss out the five-furlong sprint loss, as he could be a true router. He deserves consideration if a longshot, but the slow numbers are a concern.
10) Mr. Ankeny – Note the varying TimeformUS Speed Figures, as he started off his career with an 81, before dipping down to a 76, and moving up to a 99. The son of Into Mischief earned his 99 at Ellis Park, but it is a good sign that the second and third-place finishers went on to win their next starts at Churchill and Indiana Grand.
11) Borracho – With a lifetime best 85 TimeformUS Speed Figure in three starts, this runner is a pass for now. Use underneath, if at all.
12) Derby Date – The over 19-length loss in the Hopeful is disappointing. D. Wayne Lukas keeps running them though, even if the form appears dismal on paper. The runner-up finish at Saratoga two starts back is good, but he is still a maiden.
13) Mind Control – Stay Thirsty colt won the Hopeful in a wire-to-wire score. The question is whether he can transfer his form to a two-turn route, and there are no strong clues in his pedigree. The outside post might actually help, as he can sit off whoever decides to play the sacrifice and strike before the closers. Low value.
14) Standard Deviation – Expensive Chad Brown runner earned an 86 TimeformUS Speed Figure when breaking his maiden at Saratoga. He needs to improve, but obviously Brown is trustworthy and top jockey Javier Castellano is on board.
Conclusion
Dream Maker can take advantage of a hot pace and score an upset. Mark Casse is a good trainer away from Saratoga, so he should heat up during this short meet.
Mr. Ankeny also shows interesting positives, as the runner-up in his Ellis Park maiden win Mr. Money broke his maiden at Churchill Downs by over three lengths.
$50 Win/Place – Dream Maker
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