Six Fillies Vie for BC Berth in Zenyatta Stakes
By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers-Off
The day of major west
coast Breeders’ Cup preps at Santa Anita gets truly underway with the day’s
fifth race, the Zenyatta Stakes. The
race is a Win and You’re In for the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. But, even so, it lacks the flavor of so many
of the classy distaff-division races out west: there’s no Stellar Wind, and
there’s not even Vale Dori, who always seems to be there to nab the Grade 1
races that Stellar Wind decides to pass.
Instead, this year’s
Zenyatta drew a field of six horses headlined by three-year-old Paradise
Woods. The big questions in the Zenyatta
Stakes hinge on Paradise Woods: was her massive performance in the Santa Anita
Oaks back in April a fluke? Or, can she
find that version again when she returns to Santa Anita, the course over which
she has done her best running by far?
Let’s find out.
Race 5: Zenyatta Stakes (G1),
three-year-olds and up, fillies and mares, one and one sixteenth miles on the
dirt, post time 2:30pm PDT
Given
her form at Santa Anita, even though it is her first try against older horses,
it would be difficult to go against Paradise
Woods if she looked to get an easy time on the front end. Yes, she passed horses in her maiden win, but
she passed...maidens. She wired the
Santa Anita Oaks, and last out in the Torrey Pines (G3), she was sunk after she
broke poorly and did not strike the front.
Here? Stretch-out sprinter
Rockport Babe reliably shows front-end gas at one turn, making her almost certain
to be a gadfly up front in this two-turn race.
Yes, Paradise Woods is lightly enough raced and young enough to continue
to show development, and it would not be a massive surprise to see her survive
the front end and carry the day. But,
the price will almost certainly be underlaid, and it make sense to look
elsewhere on top if there is a credible candidate.
Faithfully looks the most
likely upsetter, and the more attractive win wager. The four-year-old from the barn of Bob
Baffert got the “third behind Stellar Wind and Vale Dori” medal in the Clement
Hirsch (G1) two starts back, plenty of class to contend against this
bunch. Her record at Santa Anita is
consistent, with two wins and three seconds in six tries, and she has three
wins and two other money finishes going a mile and a sixteenth.
It suffices to say this is Faithfully’s best
distance. Her speeds have taken a step
forward through the summer, making her a clear best unless Paradise Woods runs
back to her freakish top. And,
Faithfully has proven she can do a thing that Paradise Woods has not done yet:
rate and rally reliably.
Of
course, Faithfully will not be a real long shot; she’ll likely be the second
betting choice behind Paradise Woods.
With Motown Lady an underneath type at best against these types, and
Midnight Toast too slow without a massive step forward, it’s Shenandoah Queen who appeals most of
anyone off the beaten path.
The
Mountaineer form lines from last year are a bit of a concern, since form from
the Mountain so rarely translates elsewhere.
But Shenandoah Queen has won at Gulfstream and Del Mar since moving on
from that circuit, and the very fact that she was privately acquired by
connections as shrewd as owner Hronis Racing LLC and trainer John Sadler speaks
volumes. Though she was flat in her Del
Mar debut, that came over turf – and then she returned to upset the Tranquility
Lake Stakes on August 25, over the dirt.
That race had her stalking, dueling, and proving best – suggesting that
she could get first run on the likes of Rockport Babe and Paradise Woods, and
that she may have the guts to make the more lauded candidates at least have to
work for it.
Selections:
#1 Faithfully
#4 Paradise Woods
#6 Shenandoah Queen
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