Handicapper's Corner: Cigar Mile (G1)

Patton Returns!

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Chairman

After winning the UAE Derby by more than 18 lengths, Mendelssohn traveled to Kentucky to be embarrassed by more than 20 lengths in the Kentucky Derby over a very sloppy track. His next four races were states-side, none of which found him in the Winners’ Circle. In each, he pushed the pace, but could not win. This weekend he will try again. 

The field is not as strong. But do any have the pace strength to challenge the Scat Daddy bred favorite? Take a look at the field.

    1.   Mendelssohn (Scat Daddy) appears the best but could be pushed beyond his ability. As in all previous races except one, this was a major obstacle for him. He has run the mile distance twice, once on the turf and once on the dirt, and won both. The Patton Stakes is the most important predictor for the Cigar Mile. In this race over the dirt, he rated and closed to win --- a repeat puts him in the Winner’s Circle.

    2.   Sunny Ridge (Holy Bull) is the one who will give Mendelssohn the most trouble. He is solid pace runner with a nice closing kick. If Mendelssohn falters or loses a speed duel, this Servis trained colt wins.

    3.   Pat On the Back ((Congrats) is a New York-bred asking to do a lot. Stepping up in class with insufficient speed to be a contender.

    4.   Stan the Man (Broken Vow) likes Aqueduct but is trying a graded race for the first time. In seven starts he never finished out of the money. Getting five pounds from some will help. Could be in the bottom of exotics.

    5.   Copper Town (Speightstown) is the speedster that they all will be chasing. Has already shown he can beat two of these (Patternrecognition and Stan the Man). On the right day, under the right track conditions, he could be in the money.

    6.   True Timber (Mineshaft) will be part of the early pace. Doesn’t look like he can sustain it when they turn for home. Close but no cigar.

    7.   Timeline (Hard Spun) Ran well only to be beaten by 1.5 lengths in the Kelso Handicap (GII) last out. Velazquez replaces Castellano who rides Timeline for Pletcher. Should show up late with a chance to be in the bottom of exotics.

    8.   Patternreconition (Adios Charlie) wired the Kelso Handicap (GII). Trainer Brown goes back to Jose Ortiz hoping to control his speed and hold off late runners. Working spectacularly for his return. 2+ months rest will help. Dangerous.

Mendelssohn drew perfectly and gives his jockey (Moore) the opportunity to go or stay close. At least three to his outside will be pushing the pace. Moore and O’Brien know that Mendelssohn is vulnerable to the speed dual and will try to avoid it. Looking back at their race strategy in the Patton Stakes in March may give us a clue of how this race will unfold for this high-weighted 3-year-old against older.

Although Mendelssohn will be favored with low odds, it appears he is much the best. Staying close and moving in the stretch is his ticket to winning. Sometimes “calk-eating” is the only strategy. The question remains which of the remaining seven will fill-out the exotics. 

Here is how I see it finishing:

     1.   Mendelssohn (#1)

     2.   Sunny Ridge (#2)

     3.   Patternrecogition (#8)

     4.   Stan the Man (#4)

Handigamble Play

$15 Trifecta Key --#1/ #2,#8 and #4 --$90

$10 Exacta  #2/#1

 

Handicapper's Corner: Clark Handicap (G1)

Seeking the Soul Looking for Clark Repeat

By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers-Off

The Clark Handicap will be run at Churchill Downs this year, just as it has been every year since 1875.  The race is named after Colonel Meriwether Lewis Clark, who started the Louisville Jockey Club along with his cousins, John and Henry Churchill.  (The name Meriwether Lewis Clark is no coincidence: he was a grandson of the very William Clark who went on the famous expedition with Meriwether Lewis).
 
The Clark was originally a two-mile race restricted to three-year-olds, though it was shortened in 1881 and opened to three-year-olds and up in 1902.  It has also been run at a variety of distances, as short at 1 1/16 miles.  It has covered today's nine-furlong distance for most of its history: 1896-1901, 1922-1924, and from 1955 to the present day.
 
Notable winners of the Clark, among many, include 1881 Kentucky Derby winner and inaugural Hall of Fame inductee Hindoo (1881), hard-knocking war horses Old Rosebud (1917) and Exterminator (1922), 1941 Triple Crown winner Whirlaway (1942), onetime Arlington stakes namesake Swoon's Son (1958), Hall of Fame inductee Silver Charm (1998), two-time Horse of the Year Wise Dan (2011), and 2017 Horse of the Year Gun Runner (2016).  

This year’s edition of the Clark Handicap attracted eight colts and horses. 

The Clark this year drew no shortage of speed. Prime Attraction and Leofric, the frontrunning pair in the Fayette last month, will be joined by Loooch longshot and stretch-out sprinter Storm Advisory – and the other Loooch standardbearer, Sightforsoreeyes, won't be far behind.

This is great news for Seeking the Soul, who looks well set for the repeat. The son of Perfect Soul has kept his love of Churchill alive. Two starts ago he won the Ack Ack (G3), and he followed that up with a dogged second-place finish behind City of Light in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1). Now he stretches out to a mile and an eighth: not only the distance at which he won this race last year, but one at which he has two wins and three other money finishes in seven career starts. Seeking the Soul also has the right running style for this race: always off pace, but versatile as far as how far off pace he needs to be. John Velazquez judged it right when he rode Seeking the Soul in the Clark last year, and he should be able to get him going right on time this year, too.

Beyond him, there are a lot who can hit the board, but there's no one else who is easy to love on top.  With so much speed, it's hard to see a frontrunner closing the deal, but Leofric looks likely to stay on best of the bunch.  The grey son of Candy Ride can stay the trip, and found the frame in his only try at Churchill.  He has been on or near the lead whenever running against classier foes, but he has shown that he can rate of a lively pace, stay on even when it's not slow up front, and dig in gamely late.  That should be enough to make Leofric the biggest threat – if Seeking the Soul runs his best that may still only be enough for second money, but he should be fighting on.

Bravazo is another one who has a reasonable chance to run into the money.  The sole three-year-old in the field, he has also been the rare horse nowadays who is such a good fit for D. Wayne Lukas's desire to dance every dance, and keep coming back for more.  Bravazo was most recently third in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile – giving him tables to turn on Seeking the Soul, tables he probably won't turn because he is not as good a mile and an eighth horse as that one.  But, Bravazo has shown improving ability to sit off the pace as the year has gone on – something that should have him plugging on for a piece down the lane.

Selections:

#3 Seeking the Soul (8/5)
#5 Leofric (3/1)
#6 Bravazo (9/2)

Longshot:  There are two horses left to be discussed, both of whom have solid enough off-pace running styles.  There's Hence, who likes the distance just fine, but hasn't proven himself to be a graded stakes horse this year, even in as marginal a Grade 1 as this. 

With that out of the way, let's look to the other: #4 Hawaakom (15/1).  He has been hit-or-miss this year, but some of his better outings this year have been at Churchill.  He ran on for second in the Alysheba (G2) this spring, and though he ran fourth in the Stephen Foster (G1) in his next outing, he was only beaten a neck and a head for second.  Trainer Wesley Hawley has been firing well with limited chances this Churchill meet, with two wins in his first four starts this November.  With plenty of pace for Hawaakom to run down late, this is where the eight-year-old millionaire can find the frame once more at a price. 

Handicapper's Corner: Bob Hope Stakes (G3)

Mucho to Like About These KY Derby Hopefuls

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

The Grade 3 Bob Hope Stakes for 2-year-old colts and geldings rarely has implications on the Kentucky Derby, but there are some distance-oriented pedigrees in this seven-furlong contest.

Recent winners of the Bob Hope Stakes include  2013 Champion 2 Year Old Colt, Shared Belief and CashCall Futurity winner Mastery.  Bob Baffert has conditioned eight previous winners of the Bob Hope and has two entrants this year.

Let’s take a look at the field.

SPARKY VILLE (3-1) is the most experienced of the lot with five starts under his girth. He was last seen winning the 6 1/2-furlong Sunny Slope Stakes by 1 1/4 lengths over three other foes, including Savagery. Previously, the son of Candy Ride placed second in the Best Pal to Instrgrad. Granted, he was ten lengths back of the speedy winner, but Sparky Ville finished 3 1/4-lengths in front of the third place runner. The Jeff Bonde trainee is the class of the field, and jockey Gary Stevens can let the colt press the pace or sit farther back, a good place to be in a field of wannabe front-runners.

Bob Baffert sends out a pair of last out maiden winners.  MUCHO GUSTO (5-2) ran them off their feet in a six-furlong event at Los Al. The track is noted for producing very fast fractions, and this son of Mucho Macho Man zipped along in 12.96, 45.75, 57.82 and finished up four lengths to the good in 1:10.14.  Out of a Giant’s Causeway mare, Mucho Gusto is bred to handle middle to classic distances.

The other Baffert colt, METROPOL (4-1), beat three other colts in his 6 1/2-furlong debut at Santa Anita in 1:17.56. His dam is a half-sister to multiple G1SW turf router Wonder Again, and another half-sister bore Bashford Manor (G3) hero Ten City, so who knows how talented Metropol will be, or which surface he may eventually prefer? The colt does have high knee action but gets over the dirt just fine. 

EXTRA HOPE (7-2) won a maiden race by eight lengths after stretching to 1 1/16-miles. The late-running son of Shanghai Bobby was unsuccessful in three other maiden attempts at shorter distances. Richard Mandella gave the colt a bullet 4-furlong breeze before the Bob Hope.  With much of the field being speed-oriented, Extra Hope would benefit from fast early fractions.

SAVAGERY (4-1) has four-lifetime starts. He’s the type to gun to the lead and hang on for as long as he can. He got in a speed duel in the Sunny Slope, but couldn’t hold on the late-charging Sparky Ville.  The extra half furlong won’t do Savagery any favors unless they leave him alone on the lead.

OWNING (15-1) captured his debut, but was out of his league in the Best Pal and Del Mar Juvenile Turf. The pretty gray colt may find the Bob Hope field a little easier to handle but still needs to prove his class.

SUENO (15-1) showed improvement in his second start, capturing an $80K maiden claimer at Del Mar by 4 3/4 lengths this summer. He’ll also do his best work late, and will hope for a speed duel up front.

SELECTIONS

Is MUCHO GUSTO mucho the best? Is he just too fast for them, will he rate, or will he be softened up on the lead?  Too many questions for a 5-2 shot.  Instead, I’ll go with SPARKY VILLE at 3-1. He’s the known class of the field and has experience. He can sit wherever Gary Stevens puts him, plus Sparky Ville has the highest late pace SF in the field.

#6 SPARKY VILLE (3-1)

#3 MUCHO GUSTO (5-2)

#2 EXTRA HOPE (7-2)

#1 METROPOL (4-1)

HANDIGAMBLING

The two Baffert babies may take the bulk of the wagering money because, well, it’s Baffert, and he’s won the Bob Hope Stakes more times than any other trainer. Hopefully, the odds will drift up on Sparky Ville to a more enticing 4-1 or better. This looks like a chalky race, so exotics are the way to go. Here’s how to use ThoroFan’s virtual $100:

$4 Superfecta — #6, #3, #2, #1 = $96

$2 Win/Place — #6 at odds of 4-1 or higher = $4

 

Handicapper's Corner: Commonwealth Turf Stakes (G3)

Commonwealth Stakes Feature Horses for Courses

By: Laurie Ross, IMTBreds

A small field of seven three-year-old colts and geldings are set to enter the starting gate for the 1 1/16-mile Commonwealth Turf Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs on Saturday. 

Three entrants have previously competed over Churchill sod. Hot Springs is three for three, and Year of the Kitten won his only start. Zero Gravity placed in one of two starts.

Let’s review the contenders.

Horses for Courses

#7  HOT SPRINGS (2-1) has won three of six-lifetime starts, and all three victories were over the Churchill lawn. The son of Uncle Mo captured his last start, the 1 1/8-mile Jefferson Cup at Churchill, and is making his third start off the layoff for trainer Steve Asmussen.  Strong Win Contender.

#6  YEAR OF THE KITTEN (15-1) captured his debut over the Churchill lawn last year around this time with Corey Lanerie aboard. Since then, Year of the Kitten has only won a claiming race at Saratoga but placed in the Rushaway Stakes earlier this year. Lanerie hasn’t been aboard the son of Kitten’s Joy since the colt’s debut, but the two reunite here. Wild Longshot Play.

Class of the field

#4  MARCH TO THE ARCH (5-2) placed ahead of Hot Springs in the Saranac Stakes (G3) two starts back. Last time out, he just missed in a blanket finish in the Hill Prince (G2), finishing fourth, beaten a head and neck for third. The bay gelding cuts back in distance from his usual 1 1/8 miles but is capable of winning at shorter distances. Strong Win Contender.

Making up the exotics

#3  SNIPER KITTEN (7-2) was out of his league in the Secretariat Stakes two races ago and ran out of oats in the Caesar’s Stakes at Indiana last out. Mike Maker gave the colt a light break, and he’s ready to get back on course. His prior record says Sniper Kitten fits here, but he’ll need to step up his game to beat the top pair.

#1  RERIDE (4-1) won an allowance over soft turf last year but has been off the board in two subsequent turf starts. Career-wise, he’s been all over the board, from allowance races to graded stakes. He may find his niche as a sprinter-miler in restricted/listed stakes. Note that he’ll likely play catch me if you can from the rail spot, but may be hounded by Marzo.

#2  MARZO (12-1) showed nothing last year in two starts for the Pletcher barn. After being off for close to a year, Marzo surfaced in Ben Colebrook’s barn and has hit the board in two of three starts.  Marzo takes on stakes company for the first time, and this lightly raced colt may contest the lead.  So far, his speed figures are lower than the more experienced colts, but he has the most room for improvement.

#6  ZERO GRAVITY (8-1) took his sweet time finding his way to the winner’s circle, finally getting his picture taken in his seventh start. Since then, he’s finished second by a neck and just missed second place, beaten a head by Reride, in an off the turf allowance at Keeneland. Ehhh.

SELECTIONS

It doesn’t look like there will be surprises here, but that’s why they run.  Hot Springs loves the course and can get a good trip from the outside. Even if floated wide, he’s cutting back from 1 1/8 miles and is fit enough that it shouldn’t matter.

March to the Arch is the class of the field and has won over multiple tracks. He’ll sit back and make one run.

Marzo has the most upside, but he’ll likely contest the pace.

Sniper Kitten can sit anywhere and make a run & fits with these.

HANDIGAMBLING

Probably a chalky race, so you don’t want to bet $2 to get back $2.10. Exotics may be the best bet.

$10 exacta box: #7, #4, #3 = $60

$5 exacta box: #7, #4, #2 = $30

$10 for a mint julip

 

 

Handicapper's Corner: Breeders' Cup Classic (G1)

A Classic Classic

A full field of fourteen with two also-eligible  will contest the 1 1/4 mile Breeders’ Cup Classic.   

Among the accomplished field are Travers hero Catholic Boy, Accelerate, who hopes to expand on his Grade One hat trick, Discreet Lover and Thunder Snow, who finished a neck apart in the Jocky Club Gold Cup, and British invader Roaring Lion, who will try to prove that he’s as good on dirt as he is on turf.

The collective minds of the ThoroFan Handicappers offer their choices for first through third place and our best longshot bombs.

Good Luck to everyone!

HANDICAPPER	FIRST	SECOND	THIRD	LONGSHOT
Michael Amo	McKinzie	Gunnevera	Mendelssohn	Axelrod
John Caro	Catholic Boy	Thunder Snow	Yoshida	Pavel
Reinier Macatangay	Catholic Boy	Mendelssohn	McKinzie	Axelrod
Robert Marks	Yoshida	Catholic Boy	Mind Your Biscuits	Gunnevera
Nick Costa	Accelerate	West Coast	Catholic Boy	Thunder Snow
Nicolle Neulist	Catholic Boy	Mind Your Biscuits	McKinzie	Pavel
Laurie Ross	Yoshida	Catholic Boy	Thunder Snow	Roaring Lion