Handicapper's Corner: Fayette S (G2)

Scuba a Longshot Play in Soggy Fayette Stakes

By: John Caro, S. FL ThoroFan Member

A small but hardy field is scheduled to run in the Fayette and weather may be a factor. 

The forecast is 40-50% chance of rain all day and 50° with NW winds. Could make this a special test for the morning line favorite traveling from California.

Let's review the field.

#1 Prime Attraction (2-1) – Cassidy/Desormeux – Classy five-year old with many graded stakes under his belt. Has not won a race since November last year but, placed ITM 3 of his last five efforts against top company on the West coast. No question he is a quality horse though he is traveling here from much more temperate environment and never raced in the Midwest. His speed ratings are impressive but, I remain concerned about the change in venue, the wet conditions and his off track speed (95). I suspect he will be ITM but not on top.

#2 Nice Not Nice (10-1) – Bradley/Saez, G – Coming off a second place finish in his first graded stakes at his best speed on fast dirt (97) doesn’t inspire me and given his single placement on an off track at 89 is even less encouragement to put him near the top of my list. Not for me except in the bottom of exotics.

#3 Hence (10-1) – Asmussen/Santana – He likes the distance and has won three of his six attempts. His recent win was a listed stakes and a small field. Always liked this guy and his recent speeds on a fast track shows improvement in coming from off the pace to close on worn down runners. I just don’t see that scenario for this event. His off track speed is a low 86. Bottom of the exotics.

#4 Scuba (15-1) – Walsh/Gaffalione – I can well understand the odds makers putting him at high odds given this old guy’s recent form and record. However, he’s coming off a long break and his return was on turf. The stellar note in his record is having three ITM finishes in three attempts on off tracks at 102 which is no surprise as he is by Tapit. This could be a longshot play in the mix. I like the angle.

#5 Leofric (5-2) – Cox/Geroux – The connections have been hot and Cox has brought this fella along through steady progressions to the Grade I Woodward where he finished third by a nose behind Gunnevera and two lengths back of Yoshida who closed on him in the stretch. He may have lost that race by being hustled along too fast at the beginning and fast early fractions from an outside post. But he kept on. His jockey has won on him twice; from the lead and from the back. He has a second place finish in the Razorback on an off track at 99. Given his jockey’s ability to use the horses pace skills and his overall speeds he is a likely contender for the win and hope to get better odds, maybe 3-1.

#6 Hofburg (5-2) – Mott/Ortiz, J. – Who doesn’t like this youngster? His speeds are excellent. His ability in the off track is excellent (105). Another Tapit boy. We can draw a line through the Kentucky Derby effort as the trouble for him started way early. His work tab is excellent. He’s ready for this contest. Hope the odds stay at 9-5 to 2-1. Top pick.

#7 Rated R Superstar (10-1) – McPeek/Hernandez, B. – His advantage here is his off track experience with a 95 and he seems to do better in small fields. He is certainly a dead closer based on his history. I don’t know what instructions Kenny might give to Brian in terms of position but if we look at his late pace, nobody has that. Could surprise at a big price.

Handigambing:

I believe the weather will play a factor in the outcome. If the weather is good, Hofburg and Prime Attraction get the nod. If the forecast is as anticipated I suggest the plays below.

$0.50 Superfecta – 5,6 with 1,4,5,6 with All with All  -  $60

$1 Trifecta – 5,6 with 4,5,6 with All  -  $20

$3 Exacta – 5,6 with 4,7   -   $12

$4 WP  -  4  -  $8

Handicapper's Corner: Maryland Million Classic

Intriguing Field set for Maryland Million Classic

By: The Turk

 

Jim McKay.  Photo: Blood Horse

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk, a horse racing analysis blog serving a rabid audience since 2008.  I'd like to thank The Thorofan for allowing me the opportunity to talk to their members and readers of The Handicappers Corner as well.

 Jim McKay, a 40+ year legendary broadcaster of sports loved horse racing and he loved his home state of Maryland. You could say Jim was inspired to create the Maryland Million Day after attending the 1984 Breeders' Cup, the first one, at Hollywood Park (Ehalt, 2016).    He envisioned a spectacular day of championship racing, and one that highlighted Maryland Breds and Maryland Sires. 

It is Maryland Racing's day.  His vision has never been more apparent to me after looking at the Past Performances for The Maryland Million Classic, the feature race, with the best three horses Also Eligible, including last years winner, Bonus Points.  It's doubtful that 9-5 ML Hammerin Aamer, 5-2 Belfour and 7-5 Bonus Points  reach the gate because they "...are Maryland-bred but not Maryland-sired and, thus, not likely to draw in.  Maryland Million races are limited to Maryland-sired horses as long as six or more face the starter. 

With 10 Maryland-sired runners entered in the Classic, it’s exceedingly unlikely that any of the also-eligible runners will end up in the race" (Vespe, 2018)."  

 So what do we have on our hands?  A wide open, very interesting betting race. 

Let's Get after it!

 I think there is a a slight chance Crouchelli scratches as the 3 YO is entered in the 10th as well.  At the time of writing this I can't determine that yet.  If any of the top three are entered it completely changes my thinking and I'm singling that horse to win and playing some longer prices below below for the exacta.  If two of those three horses make the starting field, I most likely pass on the betting opportunity.

Let's assume none of them are in the gate for our purposes.

I have a group of three I'm looking at to win, with Admiral Blue, Flash McCaul and Saratoga Bob all about the same to me.  Of them:

• 1 win at the distance, Admiral Blue, who is 3 of 8 in the money at the distance.  
• No last time winners.  Only Admiral Blue hit the board, a Show finish in a $50K Claimer
• Admiral Blue is winless in 15 fast dirt tries. 
• Admiral Blue drops 6 pounds from last time out

I think I just made my tepid case for Admiral Blue as my chalk for the race.  From the 9 spot he'll need his early tactical speed to position himself.  I'm torn on where he's breaking from and trip and pace will be key if he is going to break his fast dirt goose egg.

I think Flash McCaul will enter the gate as the bettors favorite.  8 of 17 in the money at Laurel Park with 3 wins, but none at the distance.  The five year old breaks for 25% winner at Laurel Park, conditioner Michael Trombetta.  His post draw is good and its conceivable he will be well positioned to let out his late speed. 

Saratoga Bob is 6 of 7 in the money at Laurel Park and on fast dirt, but the distance is new.  Prado up for Trainer Voss.  His race 2 back, a 6F $38.5K Alw, he came back from a bad start, was five wide, and had a great closing kick.  His last race out he was bumped at start, 5 wide and faded.  

As I'm looking at this field, I like Clubman, Pal Cal, Dothatdance and Crouchelli as possible place finishers. 

Clubman trains well with two sharp bullet works on his past performance line and he has improving Beyers.  Hideous performance in the afternoons though as he's winless in 4 starts in 2018 and winless at the distance.  5 wins in 16 starts in 2017.  Of the group of non potential winners I've listed he's the one that could throw that apple cart over.  I need to see what the bettors think of him just before post time but I'm expecting they will like him as possibly 2nd best of the field.

I'm not sure what I'm doing with all of this yet, but exacta and 10 cent Super is most likely what I'll construct.  An idea of a 10 Cent Super is:

3-4-7-9 OVER 3-4-6-7-9 OVER 1-2-3-4-6-7-9 OVER 1-2-3-6-7-9 for $28.40. 

I typed it, I read it, and I mostly hate it.  I'll sharpen my pencil and hone in on something more like:

3-4-9 OVER 3-4-7-9 OVER 3-4-7-9 OVER 1-2-5-7-8-10 for $9.60.  

I just gave you two Supers and I can't say I like either very much, but they are plausible.  I prefer Exactas and I'll be playing some version of combination in my base Handicap with possible winners 9-4-7-3 and Possible Place 6-2-1.  If I just bundle that together:

$1 exacta 3-4-7-9 OVER 3-4-7-9-6-2-1  $24.  I think I'm close to what my bet will look like now and

I'll forget those Supers.

Have fun friends.

Turk Out!

References Cited Ehalt, Bob.  2016, October 10.  Legacy of Jim McKay: Beloved Racing Voice and Visionaire.  Web.  America's Best Racing.  Retrieved from:  https://www.americasbestracing.net/the-sport/2016-legacy-jim-mckay-beloved-racing-voice-and-visionaire Vespe, Frank.  2018 Oct 17.  Md. Million Classic: Trainers Voss and Maldonado approaching from Different Directions.  Web.  The Racing Biz.  Retrieved from: https://www.theracingbiz.com/2018/10/17/md-million-classic-trainers-voss-maldonado-approaching-from-different-directions/

Handicapper's Corner: Empire Classic Stakes

Price Play in the Empire Stakes

By: Michael Mills, They're in the Gate

The Empire Classic Handicap on NY Showcase Day presents an interesting field and contest. The defending champ Twisted Tom is back with a new trainer after disappointing as the heavy favorite in his last two. Last year’s second and third place finishers are also in the lineup. Add to the mix a couple of nice three year olds. 



The 1 1/8 mile contest for older horses attracted eleven contenders.

The race projects as a faster pace than the last few races many of these have run with several against each other. Two handicapping angles to look at in here are the weight assignments and running lines at Belmont around just one turn.

Picks

#10 Pat On the Back — Although he is the high weight he looks to enjoy Belmont and can sit just off the projected fast pace and pounce down the lane.

# 2 Calculated Risker —  Gets in light at 116 pounds and presents improving form and running style fits the projected pace.

# 3 Control Group —  Don’t discount this guy to much over the top two. He is a use in the multi race investments. Not sure the pace will be to his liking with potential company around him.

The Play

$20 Win Place #10

$1 Tri 10-2-3/10-2-3-4/10-2-3-4-7

Have A Day. 

Handicapper's Corner: Pattison Canadian Int (G1)

2018 Canadian International: Thunder Up North

By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

 An outstanding eleven horse lineup, representing Canada, the United States and Europe, have been entered to compete in the $800,000 Canadian International on Saturday at Woodbine in Toronto. 

The 81^st edition of the Canadian International will anchor an outstanding afternoon, highlighted with four stakes races.

The 1-1/2 mile Grade 1 event will be contested over Woodbine’s world-renowned E.P. Taylor Turf Course.

A trio of Woodbine-based horses will give local fans much to cheer about.

In addition, top North American grass conditioner, Chad Brown, no stranger to Grade 1 turf glory, brings a pair of runners to Woodbine. Brown, who is seeking his first win in the event, has been close in three previous attempts with a pair of runner-up finishes and a third-place showing.

European invaders had a stranglehold on the race, winning seven-straight from 2010 through 2016, before the U.S. based Bullard’s Alley put an end to the streak last year winning by a record 10 ¾-lengths.

Post time for this star-stacked international field, featuring some of the finest three-year-olds-and-up in the world, is slated for 5:41 p.m.

PP - Horse – Jockey/Trainer

1 - Markitoff – Irad Ortiz, Jr/Michael Maker

All his racing was done in the States before testing the Woodbine turf for the first-time last month, finishing fourth in Northern Dancer (G1), missing the top spot by just one length. He was offered up for claim several times in the early days and took nine attempts to break his maiden. Since then, he won just once and that was on first day of 2018. His last race was his best. However, there’s still room for improvement and he’s going to need it, as it will take a measurable move forward to topple this group.

2 - Thundering Blue – Fran Berry/David Menuisier

Based in England, this five-year old showed progressive development in 2017, recording wins at three different venues, but has taken his form to a new level this year. After becoming a Group 2 winner at York over 1 5/16 miles, he made his Group 1 debut there in the Juddmonte International at the same distance, running well inside the final furlong, but could not reach the leaders, finishing third at 50-1. He was beaten only by the top English three-year-old’s Roaring Lion and Poet’s Word, while leaving five Group 1 winners behind him. Coming off an impressive win as the 2-5 choice in Sweden’s Group 3 Stockholm Cup just over two weeks ago, the six-time winner from 20 starts will now venture across the Atlantic. This course will suit him well, as he is versatile, having delivered victories at five tracks that are all drastically different. The way he finished against the level of opposition in the Juddmonte race, he can win this contest.

3 - Khan (GER) – Clement Lecoeuvre/Henk Grewe

Following a pair of out of the money placings in Group 1 action this season, the third time out against top company turned out to be the charm for this four-year old German-bred colt, as he stormed home a six-length winner in the 1 ½-mile Preis von Europa (G1) on yielding turf. The victory snapped an eleven-race losing streak and was his first win since breaking maiden ranks more than sixteen months ago. The expected firm condition of the turf course Saturday is cause for concern, as this one really prefers soft going.

4 - Funtastic – John Velazquez/Chad Brown

Following his second allowance win in May, this grey colt quickly stepped up successfully into Grade 1 company at first asking one month later at 23-1, leading a field of nine rivals from gate-to-wire at in the 1 3/8-mile United Nations at Monmouth. Eight weeks later at Saratoga, in the Sword Dancer (G1), he was in perfect position saving ground in third until the stretch, but when asked to pick it up, he backed away and finished seventh. He can stay a distance of ground but must reverse his current form to prove he has developed into a bona-fide Grade 1 caliber horse.

5 - Tiz a Slam – Steve Bahen/Roger Attfield

Local runner flashed early talent in his juvenile year, winning a stake race over this grass course. He suffered a six-race losing streak in 2017, before reuniting with the winner’s circle. Since then, he’s been primarily kept routing on the grass, winning the Nijinsky Stakes (G2), but also found success in the Dominion Day (G3) on the Tapeta, both in wire-to-wire fashion in July. His attempt to make it three in a row fizzled in the Sky Classic (G2) as he gave way grudgingly after leading into the stretch. In the Northern Dancer (G1) the local prep for this event, he became involved in a front-end battle, before fading to finish sixth, beaten two lengths. Four-year old colt has kept consistent form in recent months and should be prominent on or near the lead once again.

6 - Spring Quality – Edgar Prado/Graham Motion

Won his maiden debut as a juvenile, then didn’t re-appear until his four-year old season when he promptly won after a seventeen-month layoff. Success continued throughout 2017 and was capped off in his season finale when he became a graded stakes winner in the Red Smith (G3). Garnered his first Grade 1 victory in June, winning the Manhattan Stakes, at Belmont. He may have felt the effects of an eleven-week layoff when putting in a mild rally to get up for the show spot in the Sword Dancer, two races back. In his most recent outing over soft ground, he ran the worst race of his career when a disappointing seventh in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1). With six wins from thirteen starts, this six-year old gelding knows how to find the finish line, and with a lightly raced campaign this year, he could rebound back to his better form, which would give him a real good shot.

7 - English Illusion – Rafael Hernandez/Sylvain Pion

Five-year old gelding was a sharp $45k claim back in early August. Enters the contest in excellent form, having been victorious in the ungraded Halton Stakes, before jumping up in class to Grade 1 level in the Northern Dancer, where he finished with solid third-place showing. Off that run, he’s earned the right to be in the lineup. The plusses are: He’s in top form and this is his home ground, the other side of the coin reveals, he’s up against more advanced competitors from North America and Europe.

8 -Bandua – Adam Beschizza/Jack Sisterson 

Calumet Farm runner began his career in Ireland and after a pair of moderate starts in America, he now goes for a new barn. He turned in an encouraging run two races back over good turf, finishing third at Arlington in the Secretariat Stakes (G1) against three-year old companions. Last time out at Kentucky Downs he finished fourth after a good trip in the Dueling Grounds Derby. He needs to upgrade his recent performances and the spacious Woodbine turf course could prove to be just the locale for him to showcase his talent.

9 - Johnny Bear – Luis Contreras/Ashlee Brnjas

Talented Ontario-bred star is a multiple-graded stakes winner, having taken back-to-back editions of the Northern Dancer Stakes in 2017-18. Seven-year old gelding has eight wins and is the most experienced horse in the field with 40 lifetime starts. Finished last of ten in last year’s International, but the turf course was soft that afternoon, and for this local runner to take advantage of the home field, the sod needs to be firm. All indications appear the ground condition on Saturday should be ideal for his run.

10 - Desert Encounter (IRE) – Andrea Atzeni/David Simcock

Irish-bred makes his first-ever journey across the Atlantic in search of Grade 1 success. Although he has found the competition in Europe very difficult at times when pitted against Group 1 foes, he’s been able to put forth some respectable finishes. Most recently, he was third, beaten just a half-length in the Dubai Duty Free Legacy Cup (G3) at Newbury last month. Is a very consistent runner. In 22 lifetime races, this six-year-old gelding has seven wins, four seconds and five thirds. This one should be comfortable running long on the ‘Euro-style’ turf layout.

11 - Focus Group – Jose Ortiz/Chad Brown

Colt has been on fire this season, winning three of four races and is one length shy of being undefeated. Seeks his third straight win after making a successful stakes debut in a restricted affair at Saratoga. Takes a huge leap up in class, however, he comes from arguably the top turf barn in North America, has good form, is on the improve and can get the distance.

Analysis:

2 -Thundering Blue went from being an average horse to a very talented one in the space of 12 months, indicating he’s top class. His overall record entitles him to a shot at this prize and I believe he'll improve going a mile and a half. He gets the slight nod as my top selection.

6 - Spring Quality did not care for the soft turf at Saratoga last start, so I’ll dismiss it. In his prior two races, he closed fastest through the final quarter. He’s a Grade 1 winner, and relative class combined with late speed dominate on the turf.

10 - Desert Encounter will be saddled by trainer David Simcox, who has had multiple Grade 1 success at this venue. The expansive Woodbine turf course with its long stretch should complement this runner’s style.

The wager: I’ll spend $100 ThorFan dollars as follows.

$30 Win: Thundering Blue

$10 Win: Spring Quality

$4 Exacta: 2,6 / 2,4,6,10 ($24 investment)

$2 Trifecta: 2,6 / 2,4,6,10/ 2,4,6,9,10 ($36 investment) 

Handicapper's Corner: E.P. Taylor Stakes (G1)

Looking for a Price in E.P. Taylor Stakes

By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers-Off

The E. P. Taylor Stakes was first run in 1956 as the Nettie Handicap, but was renamed in 1981 after Edward Plunket Taylor.  He started in the brewery business, with a brewery he inherited from his grandfather.  After World War II he diversified his holdings into fields such as food, forestry, broadcasting, and advertising through a holding company he formed, Argus Corporation.  When not wearing his business magnate hat, he participated in horse racing.  In the 1930s he began racing thoroughbreds; he and his wife Winifred began breeding them in the 1950s.  

The Taylors' breeding operation, Windfields Farm, is best known for breeding pivotal sire Northern Dancer.  In addition to this race, the turf course at Woodbine is also named after E. P. Taylor.  Taylor himself won this race twice in the days before it was named after him: with Victoria Regina (1961) and Northern Queen (1965).

This year’s edition of the E. P. Taylor drew a field of nine fillies and mares to contest for a purse of $500,000.

This race looks ripe for a price.  Three of the nine in the field hail from the shedrow of formidable turf trainer Chad Brown, but all three like to have a little something to run at -- something they will not get here -- and Pollara has never tried older horses yet.

The lack of pace in the race inspires confidence in the one most likely to hold the cards in a game of catch-me-if-you-can: Sheikha Reika.  Though she tracked the pace going a mile and a quarter last out -- she prompted early leader and short-priced favorite Chain of Daisies, then let her go, then put her away with utmost confidence -- looking back at her earlier form shows an ability to go to the front if no one else does.  Sheikha Reika should be able to outjump the only horse inside her, Sky Full of Stars, and get a comfortable frontrunning spot inside. 

Though she is just three years old, her last three starts have come against older, including that romp last-up in a listed race.  That was her first try at a mile and a quarter, and this lightly-raced filly has the ability and upside to move forward off of that.  The condition of the turf should also be okay, no matter what.  That most recent win came over good going, a strong possibility if the forecast as of Thursday holds, but she has been able to hold her own even over ground with more cut in it, should more rain fall.  Even the rider appeals: not only is it a plus that Andrea Atzeni ships across the ocean to ride her, but Atzeni has ridden at Woodbine before, and finished third in the 2013 Canadian International.  All in all, it's the right day to take a shot with Sheikha Reika.

Starship Jubilee and jockey Luis Contreras united for the 11/1 surprise in the Canadian Stakes, kicking smartly down the lane to mow down the Chad Brown brigade.  (To be fair, it was a different one: New Money Honey and Inflexibility that day, as opposed to Santa Monica, Elysea's World, and Pollara in this race.) 

However, Starship Jubilee is not always as far off the pace as she was in that race -- in fact, she's not typically that far off the pace.  Her more typical style has her stalking just off the pace, sitting a length or two off.   she runs her more typical style, that puts her (and perhaps Sky Full of Stars) sitting closest to Sheikha Reika on the lead.  With a pair of wins leading into the E. P. Taylor, it is safe to say she is in form, and she is the kind of horse who tends to hold her form for a while.  Though this may prove a class test for Starship Jubilee.  The same could be said of the field she faced last out in the Canadian, and she passed that test.  She also has a right to stretch out to a mile and a quarter; she won the Dance Smartly (G2) over the same course and distance last year.  A return to any of Starship Jubilee's best few races makes her a win candidate, particularly if she can reprise her stalking style.

To be fair, this is a Grade 1 race over grass in North America, which makes it difficult not to talk about Chad Brown.  All three are late-running types, making them hard to love at a short price.  But, one of them has some appeal anyway, mainly based on her ability to sit a little closer than her stablemates and run on when the pace dawdles: Santa Monica.   

Santa Monica has already answered the question of whether she likes a mile and a quarter on the sweeping Woodbine turf course, as she won the Dance Smartly (G2) earlier this summer.  She may not get all the way there -- after all, Lady Montdore stole the Glens Falls (G2), with Santa Monica chasing second much of the way.  That could end up unfolding similarly this time.  But, with her consistency and her win over the course, Santa Monica would be no surprise to see in the picture.

Selections:

#4 Sheikha Reika (12/1)

#7 Starship Jubilee (8/1)

#2 Santa Monica (2/1)

Longshot: #6 Summer Luck (20/1) has been all over the place in her career.  She started on the Oaks trail, tried the grass in the middle of her three-year-old year and into the beginning of this year, switched to dirt again for this summer's campaign, and returns to the grass for fall.  Summer Luck's return to turf was a good one, a comfortable length and a half victory at Kentucky Downs. 

This race is a clear step forward from the two-other-than bunch she beat last out, but at a massive price, Summer Luck has several points in her favor.  She should be sharper second off a freshening.  Though she loses jockey Jose Ortiz (who rides morning line favorite Santa Monica for trainer Chad Brown) from that first-up victory, the move to Eurico Rosa Da Silva should be just fine.  Da Silva has been strong with the Casse barn recently, and knows Woodbine well.  Summer Luck has tactical versatility, and if she brings her best, she can hold her own against these foes.  Based on her record, Summer Luck can find her best in this distance category.  All in all, she has a lot more going for her than your average boxcar longshot.

Photos by Nicolle Neulist

Handicapper's Corner: Shadwell Turf Mile (G1)

Logical Contenders in Shadwell Turf Mile

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Chairman

While most eyes are focused on the Breeders’ Cup races in four weeks, the Shadwell Turf Mile connections are more focused. The Breeders’ Cup Mile has a stall in the gate waiting for the winner of this race. The “Shadwell” is a Breeders’ Cup Challenge Race ---“Win and You’re In” race. 



Which horse in the field of 16 including two “also eligible” horses will have their ticket to Louisville punched by Saturday night? That is the question.

Rain is expected through Saturday morning, but the afternoon looks good and track could be fast. The weather may soften the turf course.

When looking at this size of a field it is necessary to eliminate as many that should not win or be in exotics, as possible. To do this for this mile turf race there a few indicators that will include or exclude horses from the role of logical contenders. 

They are: graded stakes performance on the turf, current form and comparative speed on the turf (especially late speed). Applying these indicators to the field of sixteen allows for the elimination as likely winners of the following horses: Next Shares (#1), Divisdero (#2), Great Wide Open (#3), Imperative (#4), Multiplier (#8), Holiday Zone (#16AE) and Big Score (#13). Zulu Alpha (#15AE) has potential but, should only be considered in the bottom of exotics, if at all.

This leaves eight, half the field, that have a chance to perform well and maybe win. They are:

# 5. Heart to Heart (English Channel) had a bad break in the Fourstardave at Saratoga that took him out of contention. Will be one of four setting the pace. Keeps jockey Leparoux after a very productive next spring. Likes Keeneland and OK with soft going. Should be in the exotics. (ML: 5-1)

#6. Synchrony (Tapit) has a serious stretch run ability as he showed to Yoshida and Beach Patrol in the Turf Classic at Churchill Downs last May. Soft turf a plus. May like a little more distance, but will be coming at the end. (ML: 8-1)

#7. Qurbaan (Spreightstown) surprised the Saratoga players in the Baruch at 13-1. His breeding may favor the 8 furlongs. Owned by Shadwell Stable and been training at Godolphin Training Center (GTC) in Saratoga. Gets Mike Smith. No surprise, this time. (ML: 20-1)

#9. Analyze It (Point of Entry) has four things going for him. He has won twice at the mile on the turf. He finished twice behind Catholic Boy, the winner of the Travers Stakes. He has won over the Keeneland turf (soft) course. And, he is trained by Chad Brown (ML: 8-1). What else do you need?

#10.Voodoo Song (English Channel) is as fast as they come and will assure a fast early pace. Shortening up to a mile is good. Has been working on a soft turf course at Belmont and may like it if the rain has softened-up the Keeneland course. Current form in question. (ML: 4-1)

#11.Almanaar (GB) (Dubawi-IRE) showed his stuff running second in the Arlington Million. First or second in last four races, two of which were graded. Could surprise at a price. Most likely an exotic play. (ML: 10-1)

#12.Mr. Misunderstood (Archarcharch) is very, very fast in the lane. Will need his best effort to be competitive here, but not impossible. (ML: 5-1)

#14.Bound for Nowhere (The Factor) has won three of his last four, two of which were graded. The one lost was at ascot in a grade one sprint on the turf; he finished 3^rd. Must be respected. (ML: 6-1)

Honest early pace with Heart to Heart, Voodoo Song, Mr. Misunderstood and Bound for Nowhere vying for the lead with Heart to Heart emerging as the leader down the backside. Qurbaan, Analyze It and Zulu Alpha (if in) will be pressing. The rest will in the back. As they enter the stretch look for Mr. Misunderstood trying to be competitive with Qurbaan and Analyze It. Qurbaan benefited from a weight advantage and first-time Lasix last. But had gate trouble. With Mike Smith in from California to ride he should be competitive. Velazquez gets on Analyze It.

Here is how I see the race ending:

1.   Analyze It (#9)

2.   Qurbaan (#7)

3.   Heart to Heart (#5)

4.   Almanaar (#11)

5.   Zulu Alpha (#15) (If draws in use rather than Bound for Nowhere) or Bound for Nowhere (#14)

Handigamble:

·         $5 Exacta Box: (#5, #7, #9) =  $30.00

·         $.50 Tri Box (five horses) :(#5,#7,#9. #11 and #14/#15) = $30.00

·         $10 to Place:       #7                                            $10.00

·         $30 to Show:       #7                                            $30.00

·         Total                                                                    $100.00

Enjoy the race, but keep the day job!