Thursday, July 17, 2025

Handicapper's Corner: 2025 Haskell Stakes (G1)

 

Journalism Headlines Deep Haskell Field with Breeders' Cup Implications

By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

Hello, racing fans. When we think of summer hotspots, Saratoga and Del Mar usually steal the spotlight. But come late July, all eyes shift to Monmouth Park on the Jersey Shore for the $1 million Grade 1 Haskell Stakes, our ThoroFan Race of the Week. With its ocean breeze, rich tradition, and a reputation for showcasing three-year-old stars, Monmouth becomes a must-visit summer destination—especially when the Haskell is on the schedule.

This year’s edition is shaping up to be a compelling chapter in the race’s storied history, headlined by Journalism, whose presence brings serious star power to the Haskell field. 

The Preakness winner and runner-up in both the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes, Journalism arrives as one of the most accomplished 3-year-olds in the country. In the aforementioned Preakness, he unleashed a powerful late run to run down a gutsy Gosger, who had opened up a clear lead in the stretch and nearly pulled off a major upset. With both colts returning for this year’s Haskell, the rematch adds another layer of intrigue to Monmouth’s signature event.

The Haskell also serves as a “Win and You’re In” race for the Breeders’ Cup Classic on Saturday, November 1st at Del Mar, with the winner earning an automatic berth and all entry fees paid as part of the Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series.

Analysis – 2025 Haskell Stakes

The likely pace scenario sets up with Gosger and Bracket Buster as the primary speed players. Gosger showed front-running strength in the Preakness and figures to go straight to the front again from post 6. Bracket Buster, drawn on the rail, doesn’t have the class edge but may be asked for early speed to avoid getting trapped inside.

One wildcard in the early mix is Wildncrazynight, a local runner with natural early foot who could add some pressure to the front end if he’s sent. His presence adds a layer of uncertainty—if he joins the fray, the early pace could get lively.

Goal Oriented and Kentucky Outlaw should sit just off the leaders, while Journalism and Burnham Square will likely settle midpack and look to launch late. Journalism in particular has shown the ability to rate and finish—ideally suited to capitalize if the leaders soften one another up.

Expect the front end to get contested, tilting things in favor of the stalkers and closers.

Top Selections

1st: Journalism – Classy, tactical, and proven against the best and suited to a contested pace.
2nd: Burnham Square – The grinding, consistent type who will benefit from pace pressure up front.
3rd: Goal Oriented – Improving Baffert colt with a good trip setup behind the speed.
Note: Gosger – Still dangerous, but more likely to hang on for a piece than hold off everyone.

Haskell Wagering Strategy

$25 Straight Exactas – Total Cost $50

  • Journalism (2) over Burnham Square (4)                                                     Journalism (2) over Goal Oriented (8)
  • $3 Trifecta Part Wheel – $18 Total
  • 1st: Journalism (2)                                                                                   2nd: Burnham Square (4), Goal Oriented (8)                                             3rd: Burnham Square (4), Goal Oriented (8), Gosger (6), Kentucky Outlaw (7)
  • $3 Superfecta Part Wheel – $24 Total
  •  1st: Journalism (2)                                                                                   2nd: Burnham Square (4), Goal Oriented (8)                                              3rd: Burnham Square (4), Goal Oriented (8), Gosger (6)                               4th: Burnham Square (4), Goal Oriented (8), Gosger (6), Kentucky Outlaw (7)

Good luck, and as always, enjoy the race!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Friday, July 11, 2025

Handicapper's Corner: 2025 Diana Stakes (G1)

 

 Diana Stakes Preview: 

Is She Feels Pretty Unbeatable?

By: MaryJo Moncheski, ThoroFan Handicapper

The $500,000 Diana Stakes is a highlight of Saratoga’s opening weekend on Saturday. Older fillies and mares will travel 1 1/8 miles over the inner turf.

Post time for the Diana Stakes is 6:14 PM EST. The turf should be firm. 


We have a very short field today. Out of 6 horses, 2 are trained by Chad Brown. It’s hard to avoid using at least one of his horses in the superfecta. It’s also hard to beat Trainer Cherie DeVaux’s She Feels Pretty. I will give it my best shot though!

My picks today are: 2-1-6-5

Top Pair: 2. Choisya and 1. She Feels Pretty

If any horse has a chance to beat She Feels Pretty, it is Choisya (8-1) with one of my favorite jockeys, Luis Saez. This filly came off a layoff from Meydan and won the Jenny Wiley at Keeneland in April. When many horses struggle to win off any race, let alone a win, in Meydan, Choisya continues to show she’s different. One could throw out her last race due to the yielding turf at Saratoga and justify that she could give She Feels Pretty a run for her money.

At even-money, She Feels Pretty has had two starts at this distance and surface, and won both starts. Choisya has had 2 starts as well and won once. It all depends if Johnny V is going to get She Feels Pretty to the front or hold her where she likes in the third or fourth position, not exactly a closer and not exactly a presser either. Both will be vying to sit off the pace. The question will be: Who will be first?

Bottom Pair: 6. Be Your Best and 5. Dynamic Pricing

I would be shocked if Be Your Best (6-1) doesn’t go to the front with Jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. and Trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. She likes to be at the front. She also fits my “rested criteria” that I have mentioned in previous write-ups. However, I would like to see a couple of bullet workouts in order to put her in my top pair. I think she will set the pace and be overtaken by the many closers in this race.

This leads me to Dynamic Pricing (9-2). I think she has the speed to conquer She Feels Pretty and Choisya, however, not enough to win. I could be surprised, as Jockey Dylan Davis has been on fire on the turf. Her last race out was on yielding turf, where she won. Dynamic Power seems to like yielding turf as she has won twice with some of her best Beyer speeds on yielding turf.

Handigambling:

$10 to win on 2. Choisya

$2 exacta box: 2-1 ($4)

.50 cent trifecta box: 2-1-6 ($3)

.10 cent superfecta box: 2-1-6-5 ($2.40)

TOTAL Bet: $19.40

 

 

Thursday, July 3, 2025

Handicapper's Corner: 2025 Belmont Derby (G1)

 Smart Value Plays for the Belmont Derby

By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper 


Back to Saratoga, isn’t that refreshing? What a great track, but my fear is that it has rained so many weekends around Albany and the vicinity, yet the forecast is for fair weather.

There’s a great field in Friday’s Belmont Derby, with many who can contend. One Rabbit and a bunch of closers who like various positions to strike.

The odds in this field are very tight for the listed top contenders, and it’s hard to imagine a good longshot to come in the money with them, but if you’re going to wager, you must find value where you can as a handicapper or bow out. As a ThoroFan, pick your favorite and enjoy the race with a small wager on your pick. It should be a well-run race at a shorter than usual distance.

The 1 1/8 mile, Grade 1 event is featured as the ninth on an 11 race card with a 5:45 PM ET post time.


 Here are my top picks based on Brisnet Prime Power

#6 Final Gambit – Cox/Prat – Gotta love the connections here. No question the form from the Derby says he can close like a freighter and had trouble getting there with many horses in front of him. He has great form on synthetic and a nice run first time out on the lawn….will that turf form shine through? Can’t leave him off the ticket.

#5 Test Score – Motion/Franco – Never gone the distance but has all the breeding to go long. Kitten Joy mare, the colt is well suited for any turf, anywhere. Is ITM 6 of 7 races against some good company. Missed last out by 1.25 in the Grade I American Turf at Churchill…have to consider a top play and at 4-1 will be worth a single wager.

#4 New Century  - Walsh/Murphy  - Murphy has been up on all but one race, has the speed and pace to close on others. Has the most Grade I experience in the field. Last out, he didn’t gain anything in the last turn. If he runs his race like the Summer or the BC Juvenile Turf, he may well win. The one that looks like he should win based on form and prior races. Top pick for me

The Field

#1 Tank – David/Saez – Here is the Rabbit of the field. Has been tearing it up at Gulfstream in some listed stakes. This is a big step forward. I think he will start and set the pace, which will definitely make the race. All horses behind him are closers, midpack or longer. Don’t see him winning, but might use in the bottom of exotics. Luis can set and reset the pace in his favor as we’ve seen before, leaving deep closers out in the cold.

#2 Early Adopter – Brown/Ortiz J. – No doubt this guy should be on the turf and run forever in a longer race. Don’t think his speed will match others in the race. Great trainer, but his stats entering this level under these conditions have not proven successful for him. Not one I would wager on in the top two.

#3 Luther – Fellowes/Shoemark – This little devil (no pun, well maybe a bit) is quite stout given his company. He raced against my top pick, losing by a small margin as a 2-year-old. You have to consider that Euro horses run on rather uneven, undulating turf, not flat, and often quite gnarly, soft, and heavy. Not flat tracks like we have here. Give this guy some respect. He might surprise. Could be a good solo play at 6-1 and likely higher…win and exacta play.

#7 World Beater – Mott, R./Torres – Look at the history. He tried the dirt two times and could not find the track. Moves to turf and OMG, He’s a new horse. Not a high-level player, but what great form coming into this race. I like the thought of young Riley moving into this level. The colt is two for two at the distance and keeps up with 1:35 at a mile and pressed on to win in excellent times at Churchill. Two back, he split horses, and Jamie wasn’t afraid to do it. Sounds like a confident combination. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the exacta at all at 10-1. Excellent longshot play.

#8 Flying Mohawk  - Beckman/Dettori  - We are racing in the land of the Mohawks, so what better to have this entry. Things to note: last race was a wash. He wasn’t able to get out and play with the field with 18 others, a sloppy track is not his preference, He has run against the ML favorite and closed well with a 106 pace to finish second against Final Gambit, finally, one of the world’s best turf riders is up for this race…Danger… don’t leave this guy off your ticket.

Handigambling

It’s going to be a contentious pace with Tank taking the lead and deciding how that will play out till the mile mark. Expect someone to press, likely World Beater or Test Score.

You can pick one here at a reasonable price to WPS or not. The odds don’t preclude a wager, but the prospects are narrow. I’ll do the below as it makes sense to me without spending wild sums for a ‘perfect’ win

$3 EXACTA – All with 3,7,8  $63 hoping two longshots team up.

Or my wager…

The best longshot bet based on his form and odds is #7

Another way to play for $63….$3 exacta All with 7, $12 to Win 7, $30 to show 7   $63