Friday, March 15, 2024

Handicaper's Corner: 2024 Whitmore Stakes (G3)

 Speed wins the Whitmore Stakes

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Board Member

Oaklawn Park is on the top of my list of the tracks I like to visit. The city of Hot Springs oozes with Americana. It has the feel of a “blue-collar-Saratoga” with great downtown restaurants and mineral baths. If you like to camp—RV, Tent, or cabin—the KOA outside of Hot Springs welcomes horseplayers with free round-trip transportation to the track.

The fans take the “best in show” prize. Coming from surrounding states, they bring that rural, farming feel and wonderful southern hospitality. Horse racing pleasures a full range of fans, save those who only like turf racing. Oaklawn does not have a grass course.

The weather in Hot Springs for Saturday offers 69 degrees with around 6% chance of rain. Track should be “Oaklawn fast.” Some handicappers have even suggested that the track slopes down from the top of the stretch to the finish line. Although this has never been corroborated.

Let’s look at the field.

 

 

1.   Osbourne (Tapiture) has a bad post for a horse that does best running from behind. Although speed should dominate the field, he has too much to do from the one hole. Pass

2.   Tejano Twist (Practical Joke) has some speed but will likely let the others dual it out, hoping to run past them at the wire. Hampered by post position. The 6-furlong race makes it hard for that scenario to work out for him. Is dangerous and should be in the money.

3.   Ryvit (Competitive Edge) with Keith Asmussen up for his Dad he, may be the most dangerous speed contender. Keith has a 3-for-4 when riding him. His experience in the grade three Amsterdam at Saratoga and a grade two win at Pimlico should help. Second off, a layoff for Dad will not hurt. Likely to make it 4-for-5 if he doesn’t burn out. Maybe wire-to-wire?

4.   Surveillance (Constitution) has a comfort style of following the pack until it is time to run for the wire. Working OK. Has shown he can handle a grade three sprint event. Maybe a little too slow for these. Breeding is nice. Could be in the money.

5.   Ninja Warrior (Speightstown) keeps hot jockey Torres with an Oaklawn win percentage of 19% at Oaklawn. The horse likes Oaklawn, as well, with a 4 wins out of seven starts here. Good early speed, but may get caught up in a speed dual. Doesn’t look like a winning candidate, but not shocked if in exotic bets.

6.   Jaxon Traveler (Munnings) keeps Flavin Pratt over Rosario, who is not racing in the race. He has experience at the grade three level. Working Ok. Second best of Asmussen’s entries may try to press pace so his other horse has a better chance to be there. Pass.

7.   Cowan (Kantharos) claimed last out at Aqueduct and returns to grade three company at which he did his job. Hasn’t seen the winner’s circle since last October. Gets weight advantage. Gets new jockey, which may help. Heavy lift for this one, but anything is possible.

 

Summary

Given Oaklawn Park track which can offer a bias to speed, winning from off the pace will be difficult with the exception of a perfect ride and a little luck.

Three horses should be vying for the lead down the backside. If the pace is fair, the winner will come from this group or a well-timed moved from the second rung of horses. Closers will be trying.

Here is how I think they will finish:

3. Ryvit  (2-1)

4. Surveillance (6-1)

2.  Tejano Twist (9-5)

7. Cowan (10-1)

 

Handigamble ($100)

$40  Win  #3 =$40               

$2 Tri Box #3, #4, #2 and #7 = $48

$2 Tri Key         #3 with #4,#2,#7 with #4, #2, #7 = $12

Good luck but keep the day job.

Friday, March 8, 2024

Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Beholder Mile (G1)

 Longshot Plays in the Beholder Mile

By: Stuart Marc deVoe, ThoroFan Handicapper

Nine fillies and mares line up Saturday for the $300,000 Beholder Mile, a nice G1 going a flat mile at “The Great Race Place” Santa Anita.  It’s good to see a full field out there these days, which is helped by HOF trainer Todd Pletcher sending out a pair in Green Up for Team Valor and Repole Stable’s Interstatedaydream. 

There are a few mainstays in this division entered.  Adare Manor from Baffert, who basically owned these races last year, beating up on Dessert Dawn for Phil D’Amato as well as the John Sadler trained Kirstenbosch.  Both will take their shot again trying to upend Manor’s dominance – she did win 4 graded races in a row from April to October.  Richard Mandella has an up-and-coming newly turned 4-year-old in Coffee in Bed who may have a late say.   

Grade 1, $300,000, 1 Mile 4YO & Up. Fillies & Mares

Race 8, 4:11 PM, PT Post Time

Expected Track Conditions:  Fast  

Here's the field:

 
 
1.  Coffee in Bed (R. Mandella/M. Smith/15-1)  Dick Mandella is having a banner year clicking at 34% here at Santa Anita.  In her 1st start of ’24 this newly turned 4yo ran a sneaky good 2nd to Desert Dawn (entered today).  She was closing late on that foe who got the jump on her.  I feel this one has a ton of upside for a Hall of Fame conditioner and rider.  She will be rolling late into a decent pace. LONGSHOT CHANCE

2.  Adare Manor (B. Baffert/JJ Hernandez/5-2)  What can you say?  She reeled off four graded wins in this division last year beating a few foes she faces today.  Her Breeder’s Cup Distaff 7th place finish was no disgrace.  She chased a fast pace and was only beat 3 lengths.  Any effort that replicates her last year’s form wins this.  She is the favorite for good reason.  WIN CONTENDER

3.  Green Up (T. Pletcher/JR Velazquez/3-1)  It’s very interesting that Todd sends this gal to the left coast for a Grade 1 try.  And her hall of fame jockey tags along for the ride to boot.  One would think she could run at Gulfstream and then Keeneland in some graded races going long with much less travel, no?  It is a definite vote of confidence she is here.  She won some listed stakes back east like a good thing although her two graded tries left some things to be desired.  She’s been working well, beating on stablemate Interstatedaydream, and seems up for the task.  WIN CONTENDER

4.  Desert Dawn (P. D’Amato/A. Fresu/8-1)  This 5yo mare has won just shy of $1million, mostly running 2nd and 3rd in graded events to Adare Manor.  She seems to show up and must be fun to own.  USE UNDERNEATH

5.  Interstatedaydream (T. Pletcher/ L. Dettori/4-1)  Mike Repole went for $ 1.4 million for this mare at the Keeneland November sale.  She’s a G2 winner and an overall solid performer.  Perhaps another G1 placing further enhances her value (3rd in G1 Ashland), but she seems up against it here.  TOSS

6.  Sweet Azteca (M. McCarthy/F. Prat/3-1)  This speedy filly is jumping right into the deep end for her first Grade 1 try.  She’s also going two turns for the 1st time as well.  She looks fast but how far she can carry it and against this type of competition remains to be seen.  At the 3-1 ML, I will let her prove it to me.  TOSS

7.  Kirstenbosch (J. Sadler/H. Berrios/15-1)  I find this mare to be very interesting.  Although she has chased Adare Manor many times with no avail, she seems like she’s not had a proper set up for her late run.  I feel there is more pace today than she had last year.  Also, she has sprinted in her last four races which should have her much closer today.  She ran a good 5th in the Filly & Mare Sprint after missing the break.  She is also 2nd time off a layoff for a cagey outfit.  LONGSHOT CHANCE

8.  Turnerloose (P D’Amato/E. Maldonado/30-1)  She has raced mostly on turf for her career although she owns a G2 score on dirt as a 3yo.  Looks like D’Amato is taking a shot here.  TOSS

9.  Windo Shopping (R. Madella/K. Kimura/20-1) Breaking from the outside in a G1 with slower speed figures puts this $700k purchase at a disadvantage.  She did win the G2 Summer Oaks here last year.  She will need to improve immensely to contend.  TOSS

SUMMARY

One could easily say that this race is Adare Manor’s to lose.  She has dominated the division on the west coast and is facing many foes she has already dusted.  Of the 2 East Coast invaders, Green Up looks the most formidable, but she in no way has the resume that Adare has.  On paper, all others would need to improve. 

But Adare Manor is not getting any easy lead here.  In fact, she may come around 3rd behind Sweet Azteca and Geen Up.  She has won stalking in the past, so it isn’t out of the question however, she has loft off the layoff a few times.  Today, with the pace set up and the layoff, it is time to play against. 

I will be looking for the strong late runners to close into a potential sharp pace.  If I am right, I could get paid.  I will be looking for Kistenbosch to finally get a good set up and perhaps Coffee in Bed to show up late at a price.

THE BET:

Based on $100 wagered:

$34 win 7

$8 exacta key box 7 with 1,2,3 for $48 total

$3 exacta key box 1 with 2,3,7 for $18 total

 

Good Luck!

Friday, March 1, 2024

Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Santa Anita Handicap (G1)

 How to bet the Santa Anita Handicap

By: The Turk

 

Newgrange: Benoit Photo
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, now in our 17th year of writing handicaps and assembling bets.    While I primary write about Turf Handicapping and Exacta Betting, I still keep my dirt chops up to speed.  Thanks to the good people at The Thorofan who asked me to write for this week's Handicappers Corner, I'm writing about the Santa Anita Handicap this week.  

If you haven't seen, the race has been moved to Sunday due to rain concerns Saturday.  I'm handicapping as if it's a fast track and will adjust accordingly.  You'll find Scratches and Changes and Track Conditions here.  

I'm not a turf writer nor do I pretend to be one.  I'm just a guy with a red pen and an opinion on what's on the paper and what I see in the videos.  I have no special insights into the industry or the horse racing elites.  To me, that makes things simpler.  I jump into handicapping when the mood strikes me and I take a hiatus when I'm turned off.  I saw a few horse racing fatalities in person last year, grizzly ones, and I needed a break over the winter.  I'm glad to see Santa Anita moving the card around to try and avoid running such a prestigious race in bad conditions and the second guessing that would follow any breakdown. 

Let's Get After It!

Santa Anita Handicap aka The Big Cap:  1 1/4 Miles on Dirt

  


17 November 2023 CD; ALW $125,000 N1X 1 1/16 Fast Dirt 

Highland Falls (2 back) win as chalk.



13 January 2024 SA; 1 1/16 Fast Dirt San Pasqual G2Newgrange/Newgate/Mixto



4 November 2023 SA; 1 5/8 Fast Dirt Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance G2; Salesman (Ire) 




I can't say I love this as a betting opportunity;  Watch the San Pasqual and tell me if you see any kinks in Newgrange armor? Does he have an extra 1/8 of a mile is the only real question.  Last year's 7th with Dettori up had to have been a disappointment and D'Amato immediately cut him back to what looks like a comfort zone at least one panel or two less.  I put him as chalk but we won't be betting him there.  

Highland Falls ships in from Brad Cox, and the Godolphin runner has done little wrong last two out albeit in sheltered company.  He has a class jump to make from Alw/OC races but the Curlin in him bodes well.  

I only see Newgate and Salesman (Ire)  as the only other possible winners.  

Salesman has been training very sharply at SA for Mandella but this is first back since Breeders' Cup Saturday.  26 career starts for the 7 YO, 24 of which on Turf or Fake Dirt.  His widening win over a small field his last time out at an extra 1/8 of a mile was only impressive in how he was running with little pressure towards the wire.  Mandella has won this three times so don't discount him.

Baffert has two in the race with Reincarnate and Newgate.  I'm not sure what instructions he'll give Deltorri, but perhaps he should try something different and use alot of that early speed and see if it carries, but like Newgrange, I question his ability over this distance, going in a sprint just two back in early January.  

I don't think much of ReincarnateMixto has 1 win in 9 dirt starts.  Sadler's Subsanador (Arg) is a wild card and a value add to exacta.  

So what to do with all this?  I'm going to make a low risk exacta bet of Highland Farms OVER Salesman/Subsanador and Newgrange, a $2 bet for $6.  

I'm the sort of horse player that doesn't need action bets and believes that the best way to improve ROI is to know which races to avoid.  I'm not thrilled with this race and given my druthers, I'd walk away but if forced to bet a $2 Win on Salesman and Subsanador for $4 doesn't bother me.  

Have fun friends, Turk Out! 





Friday, February 23, 2024

Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Rebel Stakes (G2)

 Longshot plays in the Rebel Stakes

 By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper

Welcome to Oaklawn. Thirteen contenders are entered in the $1.25 million Grade 2 Rebel Stakes, a 2024 Kentucky Derby qualifier with a great weather forecast and a fast track. 

The Rebel is carded as race 11 of 12, with a 5:23 CT post time.

 

 

A lot to digest in this race. There are some obvious standouts in here.

#7 Timberlake – Cox/Torres  -  Class of the field, won the Champaign Stakes but came up short in the BC Juvenile and lost some ground in the final 16th. Hasn't raced since. Fastest speed in the field and will likely press the pace. Five works since '24 started with a bullet on the 10th. Cox is consistent at getting his stable ready. Torres has been a winning jockey at Oaklawn. Win contender.

#11 Just Steel – Lukas/Vazquez  - Second in the Smarty Jones here and followed that with a second (by 8) in the muddy Southwest Stakes, losing to McPeek's Mystic Dan*. In two attempts over a wet track, he has not done well. A fast track should help here. ITM play.

#1 Carbone – Asmussen/Castillo  - He may have been a victim of the wet track last time in the Southwest. On a fast track he has shown much better. He shows excellent speed, has the rail, and has a driving finish style. I like his chances to upset the top two. A special play with this guy.

#2 Northern Flame – McPeek/Leparoux – the two wins of seven races have come when he is on the front and stays. He nearly lost his last out to #10 Mena going shorter, which may indicate some regression. He will likely be part of the pace, but I don't trust him to finish ITM.

#13 Time for Truth -  Moquett/Bejarano  - Broke his maiden sprinting first time out against 11 others on the last day of '23. Came back in a black type sprint and placed second. The speed for bothering races were excellent, and if he can overcome the outside post he might enrich the loot in an exacta/trifecta.

Longshot Plays 

As noted above with Carbone, Show me some sustainable speed and a closing kick, and I'll look favorable on ya.

#6 Dimatic – Asmussen/Gaffalione  - The connections alone make me enthusiastic. Dimatic broke his maiden last out on the same day as the Southwest and had a 3-length lead when he saw something that made him lug out but recovered quickly and drove home against 11 others. Rosario was abroad that day, but he'll be at the Saudi Cup swapping saddles with Gaffalione. Tyler is wicked good at Oaklawn, and this mid pack closing Gun Runner colt is ideal for this race. Longshot play.

#12 Woodcourt – Contreras/Esquivel  - New to the Contreras barn and made a splash closing against 10 others here in late January to win by a neck. His other wins have come from a midpack closing style. The trainer is a 29% win or at Oaklawn and the jockey is over 60% ITM. Like him in any exotics.

#3 Common Defense  - McPeek/Hernandez B. – Great breeding in this colt and another who failed in the Southwest. Didn't get away well, didn't get up into the field, just didn't do what was expected. But here is the thing; McPeek puts his top jock aboard who won the Southwest by 8 lengths and although the speed figures given in the pps don't stand out the time for a mile at this track on fast ground say he could be a play in the exactas.

Handigambling

The odds for the favorite are just prohibitive to bet. I'm not going to spend a lot on this one and hope some reasonable prices show up on top with a good longshot under. Only betting Exactas and small win bets here

$2 Exacta   - 1,6,7,11, with 1,3,6,12,13 - $36

Alternate $2 Exacta – 1,6,7,11,12,13 with 3,12,13 - $32

Dutch Win bets - $13 on 13, $10 on 12, $7 on 3 – all bets will payout $200 at the ML odds. - $30

Watch Mystic Dan in the Arkansas Derby….could be serious player in the Derby

BONUS BET

Saudi Cup – Longshot Box or Play them as winners.

$1 Exacta Box – #1 Carmel Road – Won the Faisal Cup here last out, Super Jockey up

#6 Isolate – Fast pacesetter  

#7 Lemon Pop – OTM once in 14 tries, can go long

#10 Power in Numbers – ITM 2 for 2 here and won four in a row

#12 Senor Buscador – Like to be ITM, 2nd in the Pegasus WC.