Risk vs. Reward in Sunshine Millions Classic
By: Jeffrey Cobb, S. Florida ThoroFan Member
Crocodile has never gone the distance. Nine furlongs is probably too much to expect for his 4-year-old debut.
Catholic Cowboy has won at the distance and his races, but only raced twice as a 7-year-old last year making me question him just a little.
Flemish Cap has early foot and a rider upgrade from Tyler Gaffalione to Javier Castellano. In the past, Castellano has disappointed me on dirt which makes me a little leery. The other thing to be leery about is Flemish Cap is coming off a Thorograph top on December 31. He may be coming back too soon off that effort.
Sorry to say, but this race comes down to Mr. Jordan and Richard the Great. The two morning line favorites. Both get nice outside, but not too far, post positions.
Mr. Jordan has never won at Gulfstream and has not won at this distance in 4 tries. He did finish in the money 3 out those 4 tries.
Richard the Great has never gone 9 furlongs and has finished behind Mr. Jordan in the last two including last time out at Gulfstream Park. Although it tempting to root for Richard to turn the tables on Mr. Jordan, my experience has told me that more often than not the that has already beaten a rival twice will most likely win again.
I pick Mr. Jordan to win the race and get his first win at this distance.
Not a good betting race in my opinion, but if you must, and I know some of you must, the best way to play this, in my opinion is a straight Mr. Jordan-Richard the Great exacta. Go light because the risk vs. reward is not in your favor.